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The First Overall Pick

Rob Murray

The first overall pick…you have to earn it by really sucking worse than everyone else the year before. You should be embarrassed to earn it, but luckily for those that do, there is typically a big pay off. In fact, the success rate of the teams who have the first pick is one of the more interesting stat lines in Robioland history. Good news for Matt Neatock, who became the first person in league history to “earn” the first overall pick three times for his career. YEARTEAMPLAYER PICKEDPOSRANKW-LSEEDRESULTS 1999Robio MurrayRandy MossWR#211-3#1Won Championship 2000Rick MullenMarshall FaulkRB#111-3#1Lost in Semifinals 2001Anne MurphyEdgerrin JamesRB#3310-4#4Lost in Quarterfinals 2002Eric VozzolaMarshall FaulkRB#167-7Missed playoffs 2003Richard BurrierLad TomlinsonRB#18-6#3Won Championship 2004Don VozzolaMarshall FaulkRB#277-7#5Lost in Quarterfinals 2005Matt NeatockCorey DillonRB#188-5#2Lost in Quarterfinals 2006Bob CastroneReggie BushRB#168-5#5Lost in Semifinals 2007 David HightowerSteven JacksonRB#1511-2#1Lost in Semifinals 2008Colby HallLad TomlinsonRB#117-6#3Lost in Semifinals 2009Matt NeatockFrank GoreRB#1010-3#1Won Championship 2010 Robio MurrayAdrian PetersonRB#212-1#1Lost in Title Game 2011Eric VozzolaChris JohnsonRB#131-12Missed Playoffs 2012Eric VozzolaRay RiceRB#49-4#3Lost in Title Game 2013Jeff GreenblattJamaal CharlesRB#16-7#8Lost in Quarterfinals 2014Richard BurrierMatt ForteRB#38-5#4Lost in Quarterfinals 2015Robio MurrayTRADED AWAY PICK3-10Missed Playoffs 2016Don VozzolaEzekiel ElliotRB #19-4#3Lost in Quarterfinals 2017Matt NeatockLe'Veon BellRB????

FUN FACTS & STATS

  1. History lesson – In both 1999 and 2000, the draft order was decided by putting names in a hat. In 2001, we started to account for the previous season’s results, but in 2001 we let our four expansion teams have the top four picks based on who joined the league first. In 2002, we had three new teams join, but expansion teams were moved to the back of the round. Don got the top pick that year, although technically he finished 11th the year before, as the true last place team was retired from the league. In 2003, Burrier had the top pick in the draft fall into his lap. He barely missed the playoffs in 2002, but the bottom four teams from that season all were replaced, so Rich was the worst remaining team left. He went on to win the title that year. Since 2004, the team with the top pick was the worst team the year before.

  2. Never been first – Just three teams have never earned the top pick. Griff has been in this show for 18 years and he’s never had that top pick. Rob Masterson, despite some struggles early in his career has never been so bad to earn that top spot. Rich Calderon is the third team to have never sunk so low.

  3. Trading the top pick – In 2015, I became the only person to trade away the first overall pick to Griff. As you can see from the chart, it didn’t work out so well for me, as I won just three games all year, becoming the first person not named Eric to own the top pick and miss the playoffs. Meanwhile, Griff snagged the pick, took Adrian Peterson, who earned first-team All-Robio (2nd best back on the season), who along with David Johnson (a player I drafted and cut), led him to the 2015 championship. You’re welcome.

  4. All about the backs – In year one, I took wide receiver Randy Moss as the first ever pick in Robioland. He was the last non-RB taken first overall. A running back has been taken for 17 straight years.

  5. First overall = All-Robio Awards – Four times the first overall pick finished first among their position (Faulk in 2000, Tomlinson in 2003, Charles in 2013 and Elliot last year). Eight of the players have earned an All-Robio award.

  6. First Again and Again and Again – Marshall Faulk remains the king of first overall. He has been taken first overall three times, but only once was it really successful. In 200o, former league member Rick took him and he earned his second straight first-team All-Robio award. However, when Eric (2002) and Don (2004) tried to ride past glories, Faulk couldn’t stay healthy enough. He finished #16 in 2002 for Eric and #27 for Don two years later.

  7. Two timers – Lad Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson are the only two players to be picked first overall twice. L.T. was taken in 2003 and 2008. He finished first among all backs for Burrier in 2003 and 11th for Colby five years later. Peterson was taken by me in 2010 and finished second among all backs. In 2015, I skipped on him, traded down and Griff took him. He finished second again.

  8. Worst of the firsts – Edgerrin James was taken first overall by my ex in 2001. Through five games, he was the league’s top back, but he tore his ACL, becoming the 1st first overall pick to finish the season on the IR. How good was he? Think about it, he missed eight fantasy games and still finished 33rd.

  9. We are getting better – Over the last five years, folks picking first have nailed it. Starting in 2012, the last five first overall picks have finished fourth or better. Eric took Ray Rice that year and he finished fourth. The following year, Jeff took Jamaal Charles and he finished #1 among all backs. In 2014, Burrier snagged Matt Forte, who finished third. In 2015 it was Griff and Adrian Peterson, who finished 2nd among all backs. Then last year, Elliot finished first.

  10. Rookies can go first – Twice in our history the first overall pick was a rookie. Bob stunned the world when he took Saints rookie running back, Reggie Bush. It didn’t quite work out, as Bush was inconsistent at best, finished 16th among all backs. However, last year Don took Zek Elliot and he ended the season as the league’s top back.

  11. First overall pick = Winning – Only three teams with the first overall pick have missed the playoffs (Eric in 2003, Eric again in 2011 and me in 2015). Only three teams have produced a losing season: Eric in 2011 went 1-12, Jeff in 2013 went 6-7 and I went 3-10 in 2015. However, Jeff made it to the playoffs as the 8-seed.

  12. First overall pick = Lots of Winning – six top overall picks finished the year with double digit wins. 10 teams earned a three-seed or higher and five earned the top seed overall. Four have earned scoring titles.

  13. Regular season winning percentage – Top overall pick are a stunning 146-92. That’s a .613 winning percentage. Take away those two awful season by Eric (2011) and me (2015) and that winning percentage jumps to .668.

  14. Moderate Playoff Success – Of course, regular season success doesn’t guarantee postseason success. Overall, the top overall picks have done decent. Three have won it all. I did it back in 1999, Burrier did it in 2003 and Neatock was the last person in 2009, although of the three, Matt is the only one who truly went from worst-to-first. Overall, top picks are 17-12 in the playoffs. Three have won it, four have reach the title game, while eight have made it to the semifinals. However, lately it’s been rough going. The last time a top pick has made it past the first weekend of the playoffs was Eric back in 2012.


LOOKING AHEAD…what will Matt Neatock do. Will he trade down? Will he keep it and go obvious, drafting a running back first overall or will he throw a 17-year RB streak out the window? This is Neatock we are talking about…logic doesn’t get taken into account.

Of course, although he’s the first person to earn the top overall pick three times, he’s also had great success when he does. In 2005, he came off a three-win season to finish 8-5, winning a division and earning the two-seed (he was upset in the quarterfinals).

In 2009 though, coming off another three-win season, he mixed a good first overall pick with a solid draft and great keepers to dominate, earning a rare in-season Triple Crown (top seed, scoring title and league championship).

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