It’s about to turn August and we’re only three weeks away from announcing our beloved keepers. Remember the rules; three categories, Category One (Rounds 1-5), Category Two (Rounds 10-15), Category Three (Rounds 11-15).Don’t forget, after this draft there are two new keeper rules.
1) You can only keep a player three years. 2) The player you keep will stay in the spot you drafted him in all three years.
If you drafted a player last year (let’s say Matt Schaub, 15th rd for Griff). He’ll only cost Griff a 15th pick both this year and next year).
I’m willing to say that these picks below are about 95% accurate. Instead of ranking them, I’ll give each team odds.
Robio Murray – Odds these are my keepers: 2-5 2nd Rd – Willie Parker (RB PIT) 6th Rd – Travis Henry (RB DEN) 13th Rd – Vince Young (QB TEN)
I’m so confident that these are my starters, you’ll have to bet five against, just to win two. Barring an ACL tear or a Travis Henry murder/suicide, nothing will change my keepers. Parker is a stud no-brainer in the second, but Henry and Young are both no guarantees. Henry’s just another golden boy prediction in Denver, but how did that workout for Tatum and Mike Bell last year? Young doesn’t need to rock for Robio, he just needs to be Michael Vick with a 60% completion rate. If all goes well, this could be a great keeper class since I’ll be able to keep all three players next year as well. For this year though, I feel confident in Parker and Henry, but look for me to grab another QB as insurance in rounds 6-10.
Richard Burrier – Odds these are his keepers: 2-1 1st Rd – L. Tomlinson (RB SD) 9th Rd – Marion Barber III (RB DAL) 13th Rd – Matt Leinart (QB ARI)
Coming off his MVP season, Burrier gets one more crack at Tomlinson. Despite having the NFL’s number one player, Burrier has gone three years without a playoff win, but you can’t really blame LT. You can blame Rich and his inability to establish any other solid keepers. This year, Burrier will probably keep three guys (a first for him), but I got some bad news for him. I just read my Cowboys Weekly and Coach Phiilips says no matter who gets the starting job in Big D, he’ll continue the running back shuffle with both Barber III & Jones. Rich needs a 20-carry guy (who can stay healthy) to run along Tomlinson. The year he won the title, he had Stephan Davis, who led him to the playoffs. When he got hurt though, Rich was smart enough to have Foster, who led him to the title. Since then, LT’s sidekicks have been the infamous 3rd rd pick, Anthony Thomas (’04), Steven Jackson in the second (’05), who was solid all season until he fell apart at the end and finally, 2005’s Kevin Jones, who failed to finish the season. Barber replaced him but he never got enough touches. In category three, Rich has USC graduate, Matt Leinart. He’s a risk to be Burrier’s fantasy starter (at least in our one QB league), so Rich will more likely than not have to grab another QB in the mid-rounds.
Bob Castrone – Odds these are his keepers: 15-1 1st Rd – Reggie Bush (RB NO) 9th Rd – Thomas Jones (RB NYJ) N/A
Can you really keep a backup running back as a first round keeper? Maybe. Bush could just be that guy. He may start the game on the sideline, but he could easily out-produce McAllister this season. Although if Benson has a couple big pre-season games, this decision will be tough for Bob. Whoever he doesn’t keep, you can bet that back will be picked in the late first round of our draft. In category two, Bob gets to choose between Thomas Jones and Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs is supposed to fill the 20-carry void, but Jones is the proven commodity (but in a new location). Both players have question marks, so just like in category one, look for Bob to do some pre-season watching.
Molly Coomer – Odds these are her keepers: 5-1 5th Rd – Frank Gore (RB SF) 7th Rd – Marques Colston (WR NO) N/A
It’s year three for the Gore/Molly combo, but unlike the last two previous years where Gore was a reach, even in the late rounds, this year he is a steal. Frank’s (with his two college ACL tears) is a top five back in most mock drafts. A lot of experts are predicting a small slide from Colston, so maybe Molly can’t rely on him as a number one receiver, but in the 7th, he’s Molly’s second steal of the draft.
#5 – Griff Coomer – Odds these are his keepers: 8-1 5th Rd – Larry Johnson (RB NE) 6th Rd – Chargers DST 15th Rd – Matt Schaub (QB HOU)
No player touched the ball more than Leaping Larry Johnson (actually I don’t know that for a fact, I’m only assuming). Although Johnson is a solid keeper (second or third back taken in all mock drafts), he could slide just a bit, since the Chiefs have no QB and they’re expected to suck ass. In category two, the Chargers defense may be a reach, it’s hard to tell. Only the Bears defense is worth a pick higher than a fifth round pick, so look for the D’s to start flying off the board in the sixth or seventh round.
Griff could also decide to go with Jay Cutler instead in the 8th round. QB was a huge hole all last season after Griff made one of his worst picks in a long time when he took Aaron Brooks in the 7th (life would have been better with Drew Brees who went in the 9th…oh, hindsight, how smart you make me look). Cutler has half a season under his belt in Denver and is suppose to be fantasy starter ready. Griff also has Matt Schaub (category three), the golden boy, who the Falcons wish they still had. He’s in Houston now and is suppose to do all the things David Carr coudn’t do. Shaub is a bit more of an unproven talent, so more risky, but hell, it’s only a 15th round pick.
#6 Rob Masterson – Odds these are his keepers: 9-1 5th Rd – Joseph Addai (RB IND) 9th Rd – Braylon Edwards (WR CLE) 12th Rd – Ravens DST
Jackson or Addai? Addai or Jackson? Jackson in the 1st or Addai in the 5th. Rob reads the mock drafts, so I know he knows what I know he’ll end up with no matter which direction he goes. Jackson is a stud, going ahead of Larry Johnson in many mock drafts. If Rob wants him, then he’ll pay for him with a first round pick. Addai is alone now in Indy’s backfield and is a projected mid-to-late first round pick in other leagues. He’s a small step down from Jackson, but he only costs Rob a fifth round pick. Both players are in their second year with Rob, so that’s no help. It’s a tough call, but look for Masterson to lean towards Addai.
In category two, Rob will keep the best young talent with Edwards. I don’t see him being more than a backup again though. In the 12th, Rob gets to keep a top three defense. The Ravens will be solid again and Rob could afford to not waste another pick on D in this draft.
#7 Rich Calderon – Odds these are his keepers: 20-1 2nd Rd – Torry Holt (WR STL) 6th Rd – Deuce McAllister (RB NO) 15th Rd – Philip RIvers (QB SD)
Masterson and Bob have some decisions, but you would have to add Rich to that group too. No man will be watching pre-season football more than Calderon. In category one alone, he’s got five keeper opportunities. In the back end, he’s got three iffy running backs, Williams (Caddy), Foster and another Williams (DeAgelo). If any of these guys has a hot start to the pre-season, look for Rich to snatch that back up. For now though, Rich goes with the safer, sure thing in Holt. Fitzgerald is just as good, but Holt only cost him a two.
In category two, he’s got two backs who will be splitting time, Deuce McAllister (with Bush) and Chester Taylor (with Peterson). Deuce cost more (a sixth round pick), but he’s now two years removed from an ACL tear, so watch out. No, he won’t land Rich 1,500 yards, but 1,200 isn’t too shappy either.
In the 15th round, Rich can keep Philip Rivers (dream on Giant fans). Rivers, like so many late-round QB’s ahead of him (Young, Cutler, Shaub, Leinart) is worth keeping, but is he worth starting? Rivers was a stud for the Chargers last season, but that didn’t always translate into great fantasy numbers. Look for Rich, like a lot of teams, to carry two QB’s this season.
#8 David Hightower – Odds these are his keepers: 8-1 N/A 7th Rd – L. Maroney (RB NE) N/A
He has the first pick in the draft, so don’t bother with a category one player (He’s the only one to not keep a category one player). With the first pick, Dave will land either Shaun Alexander, Steven Jackson (if Rob doesn’t keep him), Brian Westbrook or Joseph Addai. Whoever he lands, that back will be a great addition to Patriots’ back, Maroney. If healthy, Dave could have one of the best backfields in the league and will probably win more than one game in 2007.
#9 Don Vozzola – Odds these are his keepers: 7-2 5th Rd – Willis McGahee (RB BAL) 6th Rd – Michael Turner (RB SD) N/A
McGahee may be a little bit of a disappointment (no longer first round quality in most mock drafts), but he’s still a great pick in the 5th round. Why keep Turner? Good question. Thank you. He’s not worth a starting fantasy spot, but hey, Tomlinson could always tear an ACL or start an illegal dog fighing league, right? Even if LT doesn’t falter, Turner I believe is a unrestricted free agent next year and teams will be throwing money at him to be their starter.
#10 Eric Vozzola – Odds these are his keepers: Even 2nd Rd – Ronnie Brown (RB) 7th Rd – Ahman Green (RB HOU) 13th Rd – Kellen Winslow (TE CLE)
Although LaMont Jordan was the reason why Eric was basically eliminated by Thanksgiving, Ronnie Brown wasn’t much help either. The Dolphins’ running back was a fantasy dud in ’06, but Eric would be nuts to pass him up in the second round this year. Ahman Green in the 7th is a safe, smart keeper. He’s not a stud and he’s not a starter, but he would make a great backup for Eric’s starting backs. Kellen was finally healthy last season and looked good last year. This is year is number two (really his 4th) for him. Time to move up to elite status.
#11 Matt Neatock – Odds these are his keepers: Even 3rd Rd – Randy Moss (WR NE) 6th Rd – M. Jones-Drew (RB JAX) 14th Rd – Reggie Brown
Moss is still a big question mark in the third round. Matt better be watching the Patriots pre-season games. Drew is still a good keeper, despite not being a starter in Jacksonville yet, however, Matt has a tough decision to make. He also has Tatum Bell in the 6th round. For now he’s not the starter in Detriot, but he could be if Kevin Jones can’t heal up fast enough. I forgot all about Reggie Brown in the 14th in my last keeper prediction. Sorry, it’s so easy to forget about those 30-catch receivers in Philly. All the experts are predicting big things from Brown in ’07 (They say that about all third year receivers). If the experts are right for once, Brown could be the best keeper in category three.
#12 – Jeff & Colby 5th Rd – Donovan McNabb 9th Rd – LaDell Betts (RB WAS) 12th Rd – Jaguars DST
All three keepers are reaches, but worth a grab. McNabb might not be ready by week one (so having another decent QB on the roster might be helpful). However, if Donovan is healthy, look for solid numbers once again. I see Portis being healthy this year, so Betts will probably just be a 5-10 carry guy. However, he could be starting somewhere else next year, so spending a ninth round pick may not be asking a lot. The Jags D is still a good one, but great? I don’t know. A good keep in the 12th round? That I agree with.
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