Upsets make things fun, but asking teams to keep it up round after round is asking for a lot. Thus, we end up getting a couple of semifinals matchups that look like potential blowouts. At least that’s what CBS is projecting. What do I say?
MARC IN THE PLAYOFFS: Right now, Pattini has the best winning percentage in postseason history. He’s 1-0, which means he’s batting 1.000. Of course, that one win came last week against Eric.
#1 SEED IN THE SEMIFINALS: The 1-seed leads all seeds with 16 trips to the semifinals. They are 9-6 in round two overall, having won three of the last four times they made it this far.
MATT IN THE PLAYOFFS: Neatock is the defending champ, so he’s riding a four-game winning streak in the postseason. The record is seven (held by myself and Bob). Speaking of Bob, with Matt’s victory over him in the quarterfinals, Matt passes him in playoff winning percentage (.684), going 13-6 in the playoffs. Best yet, based on winning percentage, Neatock is the best in the business at winning in the semifinals, going 4-1 for his career. He’s looking to tie Bob for third most trips to the finals.
#7 SEED IN THE SEMIFINALS: While it’s been a while since the 7-seed has made a postseason run, they are a decent 5-5 in the semifinals. Their five wins in round two are the best among the bottom five seeds.
MARC vs MATT | A ORAL HISTORY This year, Pattini went on a revenge tour, trying to beat every team he lost to last year. Oddly enough, every team he lost to just once last year, he beat this season (he beat Eric three times). However, the two teams he lost to twice last year, he did not beat this year. One of those two was Don, who Marc could face in the finals. The other…Neatock.
Yep, Matt is 3-0 against Pattini. Last year, Neatock was the best team and Marc was not and neither of their matchups were close. Matt beat Pattini in week two, 1,660-1,235 and then in the season’s final week, took care of business again with a 1,581-1,104 victory.
This season, Marc was the best team, but he put up his worst performance against Matt in week nine. He got just 218 from Gurley and 26 from Cohen, which was still better than the 20 he got from his kicker and zero he got from Ed Dickson. Meanwhile, Matt got a total of 1,156 points from Goff, Conner and the Vikings D. More than enough to earn a 1,670-1,044 victory.
FUN FACT: Teams that score the most points in the quarterfinals, are just 7-12 in the semifinals. Of teams that scored over 2,000 in the quarterfinals, they are just 2-5 in the semifinals. Marc was last week’s high scorer and he did it by scoring over 2,000.
THREE KEYS TO THE GAME
IS BARKLEY BETTER THAN GURLEY? Since Matt got Saquon Barkley, he’s been the best player in fantasy, averaging 409 points per game, breaking 400 in three of four games. He broke 400 just once prior.
Todd Gurley was the best back in football all season long. However, over the last six weeks, he has struggled with consistency. In week eight, he scored 470, but followed that up with 218. Next he had 380, but followed that up with 188. In week 13, he scored 450, but last week he produced his season low, 116.
If that pattern holds, then good news for Pattini, Gurley is about to go off since this is a good week. It helps that he’s coming home and facing a fading Eagles team that has never been great at stopping the run this year in fantasy.
Meanwhile, Barkley will get his biggest challenge in a long while, as the Giants will take on the Titans, who as the second best defense against the run in fantasy. However, some stats can be deceiving. Tennessee actually gives up a good chunk of yards (about 1,500 for the season) to backs. Where they shine is where it matters, near the end zone. They have given up just six rushing touchdowns and they are the only team in the NFL that has not allowed a running back to score a receiving touchdown.
Look for Gurley to get the better of this matchup. Barkley will get some yards, but I like the Rams running back catching passes against a team that has given up 700 yards receiving by backs, including three scores.
REDEMPTION SUNDAY Both quarterbacks in this matchup have a lot to prove. For Big Ben, he must prove he’s not a rapist. Just kidding. He is. Pittsburgh has lost three in a row (it should be four in a row) and defeating the Patriots has been a problem over the years. Roethlisberger has played a big part in that. While he still tosses the ball around for a ton of yards, since the Jacksonville game, he has thrown six interceptions, fumbled once and been sacked too often.
As for Jared Goff, he’s played more like Jared the Subway guy lately. He followed up a 118-point game two weeks ago with a -20 game last week. That’s not good. But is it a trend? Both games were on the road and Goff has looked like a Jeff Fisher coached quarterback on the road. At home, he has averaged 407 fantasy points. This week, he catches a break, as the Rams are at home against a Eagles D that let Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper pretend to be Joe Montana and Jerry Rice.
TOO MANY EAGLES? It’s sort of fitting that we have a pair of homers battling it out in the semifinals. Of course, Marc’s trio of Big Ben, Smith-Schuster and the Steelers DST has worked wonders this year. For Matt, he’s rolling with Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery. Obviously with Ertz, Matt is getting the second best tight end in football, although Ertz never hit 200 when Foles was throwing the ball earlier this season.
However, can Jeffery produce enough points in a game against the Rams, on the road, out west, with a backup quarterback? Last year, Jeffery was a mix bag with Foles are quarterback. In his first two games, he caught just 4 balls for 49 yards. However, in the postseason, Jeffery and Foles connected for 219 yards and three scores in three games.
WORTHLESS PREDICTION: PATTINI PADDLES THE DEFENDING CHAMP, 1,602 – 1,348.
RICH C IN THE PLAYOFFS: Rich improved to 12-9 in the postseason and of the last four times he’s reached the semifinals, he’s gone on to made it to the finals. Overall, Rich is 3-3 in round two.
#5 SEED IN THE SEMIFINALS: While the 5-seed has dominate the 4-seed in the quarterfinals (now 15-5), they have struggled to delivery a strong performance in act two. They are just 4-10 in the semifinals. The last five-seed to make it to the finals was Griff back in 2013 and the only person to win a championship as a 5-seed is Neatock, way back in 2007.
DON IN THE PLAYOFFS: By earning his first postseason win since 2011, Don inches above .500 all-time in the playoffs, improving to 9-8 for his career (all four teams remaining in the playoffs are above .500 for their careers in the postseason). Anyhow, Don is 2-2 in the semifinals. Oddly enough, in his four trips to the semifinals, Don has never been the higher seed. This year he’s the 6-seed facing the higher 5-seed.
#6 SEED IN THE SEMIFINALS: If Don were to go ahead and win it all this season, he would become the first 6-seed to win it all. Overall, the 6-seed is just 2-6 in the semifinals. Colby was the last six-seed to reach the finals, losing to Griff that year.
RICH C vs DON | A ORAL HISTORY Overall, this has been a pretty even series. Calderon leads the all-time series, 11-10, although while Don has been down lately, Rich has struggled to beat him. Prior to this season, Calderon had dropped four of five to Don. This year, they split. In week one, Don dominated with his twin keepers, Alvin Kamara and Tyreek Hill. They each scored over 450 and combined for 942 points.
Meanwhile, Rich was still trying to figure things out. Joe Mixon was great (358), but LeSean McCoy was his opening day starter and he had just 42 fantasy points. He also didn’t have George Kittle yet, so David Njoku scored just 26 in Don’s 1,895-1,427 victory.
Fast forward to week 12. Don was 5-6, having survived a six-game losing streak. Now he had a chance to eliminate Rich, the top scoring team at the time, from the playoffs. He failed. Calderon dominated with four 300-point efforts (Luck, Mixon, Chubb and Thielen)., while both of Don’s star running backs failed to hit 200. Rich won easily, 1,797-1,298.
RICH C vs DON | A PLAYOFF HISTORY Yeah, this is well covered territory, as Rich and Don’s playoff rivalry was labeled the 5th best in league history.
FUN FACT: When these two have faced off in the postseason, the lower seed between Don and Rich is 4-0.
THREE KEYS TO THE GAME
CAN WILSON KEEP UP WITH LUCK Calderon came into the game with a pair of solid quarterbacks and had a tough decision to make. He went with Luck over Ryan. The Falcons are facing the Cardinals, who have the third best defense against the pass in fantasy. Luck will face the Cowboys, who have been pretty good themselves. They’re ranked 10th against the pass in fantasy. They do keep it out of the end zone, but struggle to force turnovers (only eight interceptions on the season).
For Don, he can’t get blown out at quarterback. Russell Wilson is coming off one of those bad performances he tends to sneak in there. The issue is, the Seahawks are dedicated to running the ball. A lot. In his last two games, Wilson has thrown the ball just 37 times. Eight times this season he has thrown the ball just 26 times or less. Compare that to Luck, who has completed at least 26 passes six times. While Wilson has thrown those 37 passes in his last two games, Luck has thrown it 93 times for 60 completions.
If Don is to have any shot, he needs Wilson to be throwing in the red zone. Two weeks ago, the Seahawks faced the 49ers (this week’s opponents). In that game, Wilson completed just 11 passes, but four of them were for touchdowns.
TIGHT END MUST BE TIGHT As I said earlier this week, Don’s tight ends can’t score. They can’t at all, getting shutout in three of their last four games. This week, he’s going with Ian Thomas. Subbing in for an injured Greg Olsen, the 22-year-old tight end has 14 catches for 123 yards over the last two weeks.
That’s fine, but Don will need more. Rich has George Kittle, who has scored at least 100 in every game since week seven and is coming off a season high 480 fantasy points. Of course, with a game like that, one could see the Seahawks, the sixth best defense against tight ends, focusing a lot of energy on Kittle and keeping this position close in the semifinals.
THE RUNNING GAME: THEN VS NOW Prior to the season, if I told you that Don is starting Alvin Kamara and David Johnson, while Rich is starting Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb, there would be little doubt who had the best backfield of the two. Yet, in reality, Calderon’s duo is by far the better of the two.
While Mixon can be a little inconsistent (he hasn’t score in the 200-299 range since week six), he has hit over 300 three times in his last six games. Based on his 26 carries last week, it appears Cincy is ready to lean on him with Andy Dalton gone. His backfield mate though, is a model of consistency. Chubb has scored at least 200 in seven of the eight games he’s been a starter, capable of going off when need be (538 in week ten). No, these two are not Todd Gurley or even Saquon Barkley, but Rich should expect nothing less than 500 points from these two.
As for Don, I was actually hoping he would have picked up Damien Williams this week. I grabbed him in two other leagues (against Bob in one league and Burrier in another) when I saw that Spencer Ware was going to be out and in the playoffs. The reaily is, sometimes you just gotta grab it by the balls and go for it. Well, Williams had 366 fantasy points for no one, as Don decided to stick with David Johnson. The second overall pick has broken 200 just four times all year and has failed to hit 160 in his last three. He needs to breakout, so it’s a good thing the Cardinals are traveling to Atlanta, as the Falcons are the third worst team at stopping the run in fantasy. They have given up over 2,000 yards on the season and 15 touchdowns to running backs.
Speaking of matchups, Kamara will be facing the Panthers. While Carolina’s season has gone south, their run defense remains solid (fifth best). Meanwhile, it’s been nearly a month since Kamara has produced a 200-point fantasy game. He has rushed for 100 yards since week four and hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since week ten.
WORTHLESS PREDICTION: Calderon coasts back to the finals, 1,844-1,324.
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