I’ve said for a long time that having the top pick in the draft is the surest way to guarantee success. With the exception of Eric in 2011, any person who has started the season with the top pick in the draft has made the playoffs. That’s a pretty stunning stat, especially since we are a keeper-heavy league and the person using the top pick is often not even picking a player who would be a top pick in a non-keeper league.
Anyhow…it got me wondering how all the draft picks have done. Well, no more wondering, because now I know.
Note #1: The draft record only goes as far back as 2001. I do know who had the top pick in those two first drafts, but nothing else, so those drafts are not calculate here. That’s probably okay, since we didn’t start doing the draft order based on last season’s results until 2001. PICKWINSLOSESPCTPOINTSPPGAVG SEEDTOPSCOREPOST TRIPSPOST W-LRUN UPTITLES First10668.609229,0011,3163.793213/1413-1022 Second9383.528223,2561,2695.93119/145-801 Third7994.457219,1921,2676.36138/148-721 Fourth8984.514213,9531,2376.00009/1412-722 Fifth7499.428212,5551,2297.43018/148-720 Sixth9380.538215,5251,2465.574110/146-901 Seventh8489.486217,2021,2565.501011/1410-1012 Eighth 8489.486221,0641,2786.141111/149-912 Ninth8588.491218,2041,2616.29118/144-810 Tenth8192.468214,9241,2427.00008/149-811 Eleventh8588.491216,7311,2536.79115/146-411 Twelfth 8885.509223,0911,2905.641312/146-1101
Note #2: Some of the columns are pretty easy to figure out. However, so you know, “Top” is how many times that pick earned the top seed that year, “Score” is the scoring champ. “Post trips” is obviously how many post-season trips made and “Post W-L” is the win-loss record in the playoffs. “Runs up” means runner up that year and obviously “Titles” is how many championships.
FIRST PICK
The numbers speak for themselves. Thirteen of fourteen teams have made the playoffs (actually it’s fifteen of sixteen, but again, we’re forgetting those first two seasons). The top pick has the most playoff wins, the highest average seed by a mile and is the only draft pick to average over 1,300 for the year. Both Burrier (2003) and Neatock (2009) earned titles with the top pick, while Eric (2012) and myself were runner ups (2010). Most recently, Jeff (2013) and Burrier (2014) both got into the playoffs, but both failed to get a win. They are the first top picks to make the playoffs and not earn a victory since Matt back in 2005. FIRST PICK THIS SEASON: ROBIO
SECOND PICK
While the second pick hasn’t produced the results the first pick has, it has had plenty of success. 64% of the teams who picked second have made the post-season. Their 93 total wins are tied for second best and the average seed that season is fourth best (5.93). The pick has missed the playoffs just five times, but three of those misses belong to Eric.
The second pick also has both a top seed, scoring title and a champion, but it’s a little deceiving. All three of those were produced by a former league member way back in 2001. Since then, the second pick has struggled to pick up playoff wins, going 2-8 since. Masterson was the last second pick to win a post-season game and that was back in 2006. SECOND PICK THIS SEASON: JEFF
THIRD PICK
The top four picks in all the drafts (since 2003) have been the last four worst teams the previous seasons. Three of the top four picks have winning records…the exception is the third pick. For whatever reason, picking third does not equal wins in the regular season. The 79 victories are second lowest, although the points per game (1,267) is pretty solid (fifth best). However, the third pick does have some success stories.
Colby earned a scoring title back in 2004 (his first season in the league), I nailed one down in 2008 and Molly got both a scoring title and top seed in 2011. The three scoring titles are tops for any pick. Also, between 2007-2009, the third pick produced a champion (Matt, 2007) , followed by a pair of runner-ups (Robio, Griff). However, since that time, the pick hasn’t done much post-season damage. In fact, Griff’s semifinals win in 2009 was the last time a third-pick has won a playoff game. THIRD PICK THIS SEASON: ERIC
FOURTH PICK
The final non-playoff team from the previous season has done well. The fourth pick has a winning record (89-84), although the points produced leav you wanting more (Their 1,237 PPG is the second worst). The fourth pick has never produced a top pick or a scoring champ, however, they’ve managed to turn things on in the post-season.
The 63% winning percentage in the post-season is the league’s best (12-7) and they’ve reached the title game four times (only the top pick has done the same). Calderon (2007) and Matt (2014) were runner ups, while Bob (2004) and myself (2012) won titles with the fourth pick. FOURTH PICK THIS SEASON: DON
NOTE: Overall, if you’re a team that missed the playoffs the year before, it’s good to have an early pick the next season. The top-four picks in the draft have missed the playoffs just 17 times (out of 56 chances). However, 11 of those times can be chalked up to a Vozzola. Don has done it three times, while Eric has done it eight times. Man, those guys sucks. In 2015, both Don and Eric have top-four picks in the draft.
FIFTH PICK
Based on results, no pick is worse than the fifth pick, although I’ll make an argument later for another pick. Teams picking fifth have produced a 74-99 record, the league’s worst. The 1,229 points per game are also the lowest. They have never been a top seed, although Molly did earn a scoring title back in 2006. The number five pick has made the playoffs jut eight times in fourteen years, although the 8-7 post-season record isn’t too tragic. Both Colby (2005) and Burrier (2011) managed to make it to the title game, but no fifth pick has won a title. FIFTH PICK THIS SEASON: CALDERON
SIXTH PICK
Although just ninth in scoring (1,261 PPG), the sixth pick has a solid 93-80 record (second best among all the picks) and the sixth pick has made it to the post-season six straight years. The claim to fame for this pick is that four top seeds have come from the sixth spot; Burrier (2006), Molly (2008), Griff (2012) and most recently Bob last year (although Bob did trade down in the first-round to the ninth pick in last season’s draft). Anyhow, thanks to Bob’s run in 2014, he became the sixth picks first scoring champ and overall champ, improving the post-season record from 3-9 to 6-9. SIXTH PICK THIS SEASON: MASTERSON
SEVENTH PICK
Overall record is average at best (five games below .500) and the scoring isn’t worth bragging about (seventh among all picks). They have no scoring titles and just one top seed to brag about (Don in 2005), but the seventh pick in the draft’s seeding average is 5.50, second best behind the top pick. On top of that, the 7th pick is 10-10 in the post-season. The ten wins is second best, although half those wins came a long time ago (David’s runner up run in 2001 and my champion back in 2002). Calderon was the last seventh pick to find major success, when he won the title in 2013. Take away those three playoff runs and the 7-spot is just 2-9 in the playoffs. SEVENTH PICK THIS SEASON: BURRIER
EIGHTH PICK
The 8th pick is typically the same type of team every year. They were the best team (often a highly seeded team) to get bounced in the first-round of the playoffs. Anyhow, the 8th pick has an identical record as the 7th pick (84-89), although they have averaged 22 more points per game. In fact, the 1,278 PPG is the third best in the league. The eighth pick has delivered 11 playoff teams (third best) and both a top seed and a scoring title (I got them both way back in 2003). Griff even made it to the title game in 2013 with the eighth pick, although he didn’t win it.
You know who did win it…twice? Yep, Don. Both of Don’s title runs (2006, 2008) came when he had the eighth pick. In fact, Don and Griff in their three runs account for eight of the nine playoff wins by this pick. Take those away and the 8th pick is 1-8 in the playoffs. EIGHTH PICK THIS SEASON: COLBY
NINTH PICK
The teams who picked ninth have been above average. They’re three games below .500 (85-88), although only four picks have a higher point per game total (1,261). They’ve made it to the post-season eight times, with an average seed of 6.29 (7th best). There have been two solid seasons from teams with this pick (Molly earned the top seed and lost in the title game back in 2002) and Calderon got a scoring title and nine wins in 2010. The issue with the ninth pick is the lack of playoff advancement. Overall, the 9th pick is just 4-8 in the playoffs (Molly being the only to advance to the finals). In fact, Don’s one quarterfinal’s victory in 2011 is the only playoff victory for a ninth pick since 2005. NINTH PICK THIS SEASON: GRIFF
TENTH PICK
The 10th pick hasn’t been the best. The .468 winning percentage is second lowest and the 1,253 PPG is meh. The average playoff seed is 7.0, the second worst in the league and this is the only pick that has failed to earn either a top seed or a scoring title. They’ve made the playoffs eight times and done okay, winning nine of 17 games. The highlights were my runner-up results in 2006 and Bob’s 2010 title run. However, the tenth pick has not won a playoff game the last three years. TENTH PICK THIS SEASON: MOLLY
ELEVENTH PICK
Arguable the worst pick in the draft if getting to the playoffs is what you care about. Overall, the record isn’t tragic, as the 11th pick has gone 85-88. Even the scoring isn’t tragic (1,253 PPG), 9th overall. However, if you take away a pair of Griff seasons (2004 where he was the top seed and runner-up and 2005 when he was the scoring champ and overall champ), the 11th pick has done jack and shit. Teams picking here have made the playoffs just five times in fourteen years and only one team, that’s not named Griff) has managed to win a single post-season game and that was Burrier winning in the quarterfinals in 2012. Good luck, Matt. ELEVENTH PICK THIS SEASON: MATT
TWELFTH PICK
The last pick in the first round has been the defending champ (except 2002 and 2003 when we turned the league into a primary Florida league into a primary New York league) and the defending champs have generally done well. They are 88-85, which is fine, but is dragged down by a pair of 3-10 seasons by Bob (2005) and Matt (2008). Take those two out and defending champs are 85-65. They’ve averaged 1,290 PPG (second best) and the average seed has been 5.64 (third overall).
The person with the last pick in round one has earned on top seed (Robio, 2013) and three scoring titles; Justin (2003), Don (2007) and Robio (2013). The problem for the defending champs has been rediscovering that post-season magic. They are just 6-11 in the playoffs since 2001 and only Bob has repeated (2011), accounting alone for three of the six wins. In fact, Bob and myself are the only 12th picks since 2001 to win a playoff game (Bob: 4, Robio: 2). TWELFTH PICK THIS SEASON: BOB
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