MOLLY COOMER
For a long time now, Molly was pretty predictable. You knew she would win a game at some point during the season without breaking 900 points, you knew she was going to refuse to send nude photos to Burrier for $50 and you knew that she was going to draft a running back in the first-round.
For eight straight seasons, Molly took a running back in the first round. In fact, if you include the first two rounds of every draft, Molly has taken a running back 15 times (out of 20 picks). Of the five times she didn’t, four were quarterbacks and only once did she take a wide receiver with one of her first two picks (that would be Marques Colston) in 2009.
So has this running back heavy system paid off? Is she getting bang with her back? The reality is, because Molly basically refuses to do a trade in this league (she’s done three total and none since 2004), drafting right is key to any success.
2002 SEASON
Round One – Peyton Manning, QB-IND In season one for Molly she actually went quarterback first (she wouldn’t do it again until 2011). In both cases, the decision paid off. In 2002, Manning finished second behind only Rich Gannon in quarterback points, earning second-team All-Robio. Obviously, Peyton started for Molly all season long, leading her to the league’s top seed and title game. Of course the following year, Manning would fall to the back of the second-round, where he led Burrier to the championship.
Round Two – Deuce McAllister, RB-NO The Saints’ running back and Molly would have a long history together (long in fantasy football being about three-four years). The Deuce was no sure thing heading into 2002. It was his first year as a starter after the Saints shipped Ricky Williams off to Miami. McAllister would produce over 1,700 total yards and finish 8th among all running backs.
2003 SEASON
Round One – Deuce McAllister, RB-NO (K) In our first year with keepers, Molly kept the Deuce who again failed to disappoint. He ran for over 1,600 yards, producing over 2,100 total yards, earning third-team All-Robio. He would start all season for the Pops, leading her to a nine-win regular season.
Round Two – Charlie Gardner, RB-OAK Gardner become Molly’s first running back flop. The problem was, the Raiders were a passing team (thank you Rich Gannon) and the backfield was crowded with Gardner, Tyrone Wheatley and Justin Fargas. Despite missing just one game, Gardner only got 120 carries, failing to produce 600 yards rushing. He had double-digit carries only five times all season. Molly would never cut Gardner, but she benched him for Dallas’ Richie Anderson.
2004 SEASON
Round One – Deuce McAllister, RB-NO (K) The Deuce was back after two amazing seasons (top eight, followed by top six), but in 2004, some rust started to show on McAllister. He would miss two games, but even when he played, he didn’t always produce. During the fantasy regular season, he broke 100 yards rushing only three times, barely hitting 1,000 for the season. After a rough 0-5 start to the season, Molly made one last push for the post-season when she traded McAllister to me in week 13 (wow, our trading deadline was that far into the season?) for three players, Jerome Bettis, Nick Goings and Duce Staley (this would be the last time Molly did a trade). While McAllister would finish 21st on the season, Molly would end up missing the post-season, despite winning her final two games without McAllister.
Round Two – Stephen Davis, RB-WAS Of course Molly missing the post-season might have less to do with the Deuce and more to do with her second-round pick, Stephen Davis. After producing over 1,300 yards rushing in three of his last four, Davis seemed like a solid second-round grab. However, he would go down in week one (after just nine carries). He would return in week five, but after 15 carries was injured again, this time for the year. He played two total games, carrying the ball just 24 times, finished #57 among all backs.
2005 SEASON
Round One – Deuce McAllister, RB-NO In 2004, the Deuce definitely didn’t run loose. Yet, he still broke 1,000 yards and Molly hoped it was just a fluke, thus she re-drafted him in 2005. For five weeks he looked so-s0, breaking 100 yards once, scoring three touchdowns, but in a 52-3 loss to the Packers, he tore up his ACL and was knocked out for the year. It was the second year in a row Molly lost a top-two running back for the year in week five. McAllister would finish #50 among backs, while Molly would start DeShaun Foster for the rest of the year.
Round Two – Brian Westbrook, RB-PHI In the second-round Molly grabbed Westbrook, a running back who had never rushed for 1,000 yards in a season throughout his four-year career. He was considered a scat back at best, as he would often match his rushing totals (usually between 500-800 yards) with receiving yards. In 2005, Westbrook got the starting gig all to himself as Corey Buckhalter went out for the year in the preseason. Still, this was the Eagles and despite Westbrook’s talents, he would never get enough touches. On the season he finished 14th, a solid RB2, but he only got 20 carries in a game once, finishing with 617 yards rushing to go along with 616 yards receiving. However, Westbrook would end up going down for the year in week 12. Molly would enter the post-season without both of her top-two picks. She was forced to go three-wide and lost to her husband in the quarterfinals.
2006 SEASON
Round One – Warrick Dunn, RB-ATL Dunn wasn’t a bad pick in 2006. He was coming off three straight 1,000-yard seasons, but he was getting older and he was never going to be a elite running back anymore. Still, Molly had few choices here. The best running backs were all being kept, including the final five picks in the first-round. For five weeks, the pick looked brilliant. Dunn produced three amazing games, 132 yards rushing in week one, 134 in week two and 146 rushing yards in week five. He was one of the best backs in football. However, that would be all. In the final eight regular season games in fantasy football, he would never come close to breaking 100 yards, rushing for just 486 total yards. He finished 20th on the year, but thankfully, Molly also kept her first running back sleeper, Frank Gore, in the 9th round. He would rush for over 1,600 yards (finishing top-five). Dunn would end the season on Molly’s bench. This was the third-straight year Molly’s first-round running back did not end the season as a starter for her.
Round Two – Brian Westbrook, RB-PHI (K) While Dunn faltered, Westbrook had his breakout season. As a second-round keeper, the Eagles’ running back finally got a large bulk of the carries and didn’t disappoint. He rushed for over 1,200 yards and nearly hit 2,000 total yards. He finished the season as a third-team All-Robio player. With arguable the league’s best backfield of Gore/Westbrook, Molly finished with a 10-3 record, earning her first league scoring title. However, in the quarterfinals, 7-seed Don began his magical playoff run by upsetting Molly, 1,499-1,296. It was actually the fourth time in five years the scoring champ fell in the first-round.
2007 SEASON
Round One – Edgerrin James, RB-ARI For Molly, life was never easy for her in the first-round. First, she just about always made the playoffs, but since she didn’t go very far, she was always drafting between 6-8. This makes life tough because there are so many keepers being kept, if there are any great players, they are usually gone by the time Molly picks. This is why for the second year in a row, she opted for an aging veteran trying to hang on to his career. The year before she grabbed Dunn and that didn’t workout to well. In 2007, she went with The Edge, now two years removed from Indianapolis. While James was never great, he broke 100 yards rushing just twice, he was never awful. He cracked 1,200 yards rushing, scoring seven times. He finished ninth among all backs.
Round Two – Carson Palmer, QB-CIN Thanks to a keeper system that forced players to move up in categories (this change after the 2007 season), Gore moved up to the fifth round, thus Molly could only keep Gore and not Westbrook in Category one. So the bad news was, she couldn’t keep Westbrook, but the good news was since she had Gore in round five, she could actually use one of her first two picks on someone other than a running back (the first time since 2002). She decided to go with Carson Palmer. The Bengals single-caller had been a consistent top-five quarterback, finishing first-team All-Robio in 2005. While Palmer did throw for over 4,000 yards, his touchdown total (26) fell for a third-straight year and he threw a career high 20 interceptions. In the end, Palmer would start for Molly all season, finishing ninth among all quarterbacks. She would win just six games all year, but she did get back into the post-season for third straight year.
2008 SEASON
Round One – Clinton Portis, RB-WAS Molly sure liked her running backs in their second homes. For the third straight year, she draft a running back a year or two removed from them being traded (Dunn to Atlanta, James to Arizona and now Portis to Washington). Of course after three 1,500-yard rushing seasons in Denver (out of four), Portis had never come close to reproducing those numbers. However, in 2008 he would have his best year in Washington. He finished with 1,487 yards (1,700+ total yards), just missing out on third-team All-Robio (he finished 7th).
Round Two – Laurence Maroney, RB-NE While Portis was a huge success in round one, Maroney was the exact opposite. Entering his third-year in New England, two years since Corey Dillon had left, it was time for Maroney to shine. The previous year he had rushed for over 800 yards on just 185 rushing attempts. However, three games in, Maroney tore up his knee and was done for the year. He would finish #108 on the season. Molly luckily picked up via free agency, Matt Forte, who finished second-team All-Robio. For the second time in three years she entered the post-season stacked at running back. As a #1 seed, she escaped with a win in round one over Eric, but then fell to 7-seed Don in the semis.
2009 SEASON
Round One – Clinton Portis, RB-WAS (K) After producing back-to-back solid years in D.C. (2,700 rushing yards combined), Portis was an obvious keeper for Molly. However, 2009 would not be so kind. Like past running backs for Molly, Portis would fail to finish the season, surviving to week eight before going out with a knee injury. He would be the fourth back in five seasons that Molly drafted or kept in round one/two that failed to finish the season due to injury.
Round Two – Marques Colston, WR-NO Like 2008, Molly had a solid keeper running back later in the draft (this time Matt Forte in round six), so she could once again draft someone other than a back in the first two rounds. However, for the first and only time in her career (as of 2011), she drafted a wide receiver, Marques Colston. The Saints’ top receiver was consider an solid if not elite WR1, but after missing five games in 2008, he fell to Molly in round two. While he failed to match his career high numbers from 2007 (98/1,202/11), he still caught over 70 balls for over 1,000 yards, scoring nine times. He finished the season #12 among all receivers.
2010 SEASON
Round One – Shonn Greene, RB-NYJ While Molly had certainly had first-round picks not pan out, they typically failed because of injuries. For Greene, this was just a bad pick. Sharing the ball with Tomlinson and after a rough preseason, Greene never was able to break loose in 2010. Molly recognized this early and benched Greene right away. In fact, he would never start a game for Molly until the very last week, even though he never missed a game due to injury. By then Molly’s season was already done. In the end, Greene got just 185 carries all year, producing 766 yards. He finished #35 among all backs.
Round Two – Tony Romo, QB-DAL While Greene was a clear bust from the start, Romo came out flaming. For five weeks, the Cowboys were throwing the ball to everyone and Romo was piling up stats. After five weeks he was the league’s top quarterback. Then against the Giants, he was knocked out of the game and he was out for the year. He would finish 28th overall. While Molly was able to secure Jon Kitna for the remainder of the year and he did put up solid numbers, this coupled with Greene’s failures was too much to overcome. She would produce her worst season in Robioland, winning three games total.
2011 SEASON
Round One – Aaron Rodgers, QB-GB – 1 After eight straight years of drafting or keeping running backs in the first-round, Molly had finally had enough. After Eric drafted Chris Johnson with the first pick and Masterson took Roddy White with the second, Molly snagged Aaron Rodgers, who was coming off a first-team All-Robio year the previous season. To say he did not disappoint, would be a major understatement. While Johnson and White would both under-perform, finished 13th at their respective positions, Rodgers would go on to produce the most points by a single player in league history. Thanks to his 478 PPG, Molly would earn both the top-seed and scoring title (for the third time each), scoring 1,536 points per game, the second most ever in the regular season. Unfortunately, Rodgers would be out-played by Matt Ryan in the quarterfinals and Molly saw her season end early to Don for the third time in six years. She lost in round one, 1,399-1,344.
Round Two – Jahvid Best, RB-DET – 31 Of course the fact that Molly produced so many points despite her second pick says a lot about her and her team. Heading into the season, Best was considered one of the better up-and-coming backs in the league. He would be the starting back in what many considered a great offense. However, Best had some baggage due to concussion concerns. Molly drafted him anyway. Early on, the results were mixed. He would rush for 72 yards in week one, but just 14 in week three. However, thanks to the receiving skills, he always managed to pile on receiving yards. In week five, he broke out for 163 rushing yards. Along with Rodgers, Graham, Mendenhall and Kenny Britt, Molly looked dangerous, but then in week six Best suffered a concussion. Just like that he was done for the year. While Willis McGahee did a fine job stepping in for Best, just imagine what she could have done if she still had a healthy Best (as well as Britt, who went out for the year too).
OVERALL
Of the 15 running backs Molly took in the first two round of every draft, six ended up as RB1’s (Westbrook finished just 14th, but missed the final two games), while the others all finished top-10. Two total (Deuce McAllister in 2003 and Brian Westbrook in 2006 earned third-team All-Robio’s. However, none earned first or second-team All-Robio. Overall four backs ended their season with Molly as non-injury busts, while four ended their seasons on injured reserve (and if you include Brian Westbrook in 2006, it would be five who ended their seasons on IR). Based on my math, only 40-percent of running backs drafted by Molly in the first-two rounds paid off. Now you see why she’s been drafting quarterbacks early the past two years.
Comments