JEFF GREENBLATT
Heading into 2012, we are going into year four since the Jeff/Colby love affair was broken up. Life as a single player started off well for Jeff. He won eight games in 2009, he made it to the post-season as the 4-seed, while Colby was sitting home and watching.
Yet, the previous two years have not been pretty. Only Eric makes Jeff look not quite that bad. So what’s gone wrong? Back when the Quarter Pounders were a two-man operation, Jeff did the drafting, but Colby ran the team. The combo wasn’t a bad combo in this league.
They went to the post-season four times in five years, won a scoring title (2004), won a division (2008) and nearly won a title (losing the 2005 title game). Life was good.
So the big question is, has drafting been the problem? Was Jeff better at drafting for Colby (I’m assuming Colby gave him some pre-draft input) or is he better at drafting for himself.
What I did was look at the “projective starting lineup” that Jeff pieced together. Meaning, the fist quarterback, the first two running backs and two wide receivers, the first tight end and defense. I ignored kickers because no one goes a whole season with the same kicker.
I also decided to ignore Jeff’s first season, way back in 2003. It was so long ago, he was a Robioland rookie and it feels like a different era compared to now.
So what did I find out? Let’s start with quarterbacks and work our way down.
QUARTERBACK, W/COLBY The average player ranking of the QB’s drafted by Jeff was 13.8. Not great. Of course Derek Anderson has a lot to do with dragging this average down. If you remember, Anderson was a keeper (blame Colby). Take away his #32 ranking in 2008 and Jeff’s drafted arms average #7.4. That’s a better number. In fact, three times during Jeff’s Pounder era, they kept their starting QB (Anderson in 2008 and McNabb twice, 2005 & 2007). Overall those keepers didn’t pan out. I’ve already mentioned Anderson’s 32nd ranking, but McNabb finished #20 in 2005 and #13 in 2009. The two times Jeff actually drafted a quarterback was 2004 (McNabb) and 2006 (P. Manning). They finished a solid #3 (McNabb) and #1 (Manning).
QUARTERBACK, SOLO JEFF As I already said, as a Pounder Jeff kept a QB in three of his five seasons and not much changed when he went solo. He’s kept a QB twice in three years. Taking over David’s team in 2009, Jeff kept Tom Brady, who finished 7th overall. His two others QBs (Palmer and Big Ben) have not been as successful, but they both finished top-12, so they were at least starters. Overall, Jeff’s solo QB’s have an average ranking of 10.
QUARTERBACK WINNER: SOLO JEFF, since I’m keeping all QBs in, including keepers.
RUNNING BACK 1, W/COLBY As you can see, I’m going to break up the running backs to the first running back taken and the second running back taken. Anyhow, Jeff struggled to land solid backs as a Pounder. The average ranking for the first RB taken by Jeff per draft was just 28.8. That’s the bench, my friend. Of five running backs selective first, only two could be worthy of a starting spot. One was Rudi Johnson (#8) in 2005 and then in 2008 he took Tomlinson (#8) with the top pick in the draft. The low lights of course were Quentin Griffen (#65), Cedric Benson (#40) and Thomas Jones (#23). At least with Griffen, Colby was able to ship him off for Tiki Barber and Warrick Dunn.
RUNNING BACK 1, SOLO JEFF As a solo team, things have actually gotten worse for Jeff…slightly. His three first running backs taken have averaged a #29 ranking. Cedric Benson wasn’t awful in 2009, but Ryan Mathews (#32) and Felix Jones (#39) have been disasters over the past two years.
RUNNING BACK 1 WINNER: WITH COLBY
RUNNING BACK 2, W/COLBY You thought Jeff’s first running backs w/Colby were bad, his second running backs are worse, finishing a sad 29.2 per running back, and keep in mind, this includes keeper Tiki Barber, who produced a #2 and #6 season for the Pounders. Of course Jeff had nothing to do with Barber being on the team. The devastatingly bad picks include 2004’s Moe Williams (#48) and 2007’s Cadillac Williams (#76). Marshawn Lynch salvaged Jeff a little in 2008. He finished #15 among all backs.
RUNNING BACK 2, SOLO JEFF As bad a Jeff’s second running backs were when he drafted with the Quarter Pounders, he went from bad to worse when he went solo. His three backs drafted second, averaged just 32.7. Of course it doesn’t help that he’s drafted Tim Hightower twice. He’s finished #22 in 2009 and then #63 last year (thanks to an ACL injury), then squeeze in Cedric Benson in-between who finished #19.
RUNNING BACK 2 WINNER: WITH COLBY
WIDE RECEIVER 1, W/COLBY Like running backs, I broke up the first wide receiver chosen and the second wide receiver chosen. Anyhow, with the Pounders, Jeff was solid at drafting a first wide receiver. His first WR’s averaged a 12.2 among all wide receivers…that’s an average of a low-end WR1. Overall, he had three top-10 receivers, led by Steve Smith (first overall in 2005), Reggie Wayne (second overall in 2006) and Marvin Harrison (9th overall in 2004). In his final two seasons, he didn’t fare as well, with Anquan Boldin (23rd), followed by T.J. Houshmandzadeh (26th).
WIDE RECEIVER 1, SOLO JEFF Jeff hit a home run in season one (2009) when he took Randy Moss in the first-round. The Patriots’ receiver finished first. Overall though, his three first wide receivers taken post-2009 have averaged 11th, slightly better than when he was drafting for Colby. In 2010 Brandon Marshall was just 23rd among all wide outs, but Larry Fitzgerald (another first-round selection) finished 9th.
WIDE RECEIVER 1 WINNER: SOLO JEFF
WIDE RECEIVER 2, W/COLBY While Jeff did well drafting first receivers as a member of the Quarter Pounders, his second receivers weren’t too bad either. Overall they finished 16.4 among all receivers, a mid-level WR2. Steve Smith was the high, as a keeper 2006 (he finished 6th). Both Issac Bruce (14th in 2004) and Donald Driver (11th in 2005) finished a starter-worthy top-15, but like his first receivers taken, Jeff’s struggled in his final two seasons. In both cases, he grabbed Lee Evans, who failed to finish in the top-20 in either season (he finished #29 in 2007 and #22 in 2008).
WIDE RECEIVER 2, SOLO JEFF Jeff’s second receivers have been a mixed bag of nuts as a solo artist. He grabbed Vincent Jackson in the second-round in 2009 and he finished 10th among all receivers. Couple him with first-team All-Robio Randy Moss and you can see why Jeff made it to the post-season that year. However, in follow up years, he had less success. Sixth-round Jabar Gaffney finished just 35th in 2010, while Steve Johnson did manage to finish as a WR2 in 2011, ending up 17th. Overall, Jeff’s second receiver selections finished 20.6, four behind his Pounder selections.
WIDE RECEIVER 2 WINNER: WITH COLBY
TIGHT END, W/COLBY Considering that Jeff never reaches early for a tight end, he’s done okay. Overall as a Pounder, Jeff on average drafted a tight end in round six and they averaged 10.2 among all tight ends. While only one has been really great (Tood Heap finished 5th in 2006), three finished between ninth (Cooley in 2008) and 11th (Franks in 2004, Clark in 2005). Ben Watson’s 15th among all tight ends in 2007 was his worst TE pick.
TIGHT END, SOLO JEFF Jeff actually improved at picking tight ends as a solo player. Overall, his three tight ends have averaged 9.7. Again though, no one great (Owen Daniels was his best, finishing 8th in 2009), but no busts either. Zack Miller was Jeff’s worst, finishing 12. Aaron Hernandez ended up 9th overall.
TIGHT END, WINNER: SOLO JEFF
DEFENSE W/COLBY: As a Pounder, defense was not Jeff’s specialty. Overall, his D’s finished 17.4, but his Steelers pick in 2008 was first overall, deluding the stats. No other defense cracked the top-10, the 2006 Dolphin’s hit 11th among all defenses. His Patriots selection in 2005 was just 26th and the Chiefs D the year before was just 31st.
DEFENSE, SOLO JEFF As a solo artist, Jeff’s defensive picks have improved sort of, hitting an average of 15.6. In his first season, the Vikings D delivered a 7th ranking, but his selections have gotten progressively worse. The 49ers in 2010 were just 17th among all DST’s and last year’s Giants pick didn’t seem like a good pick at times, but they finished just 23rd.
DEFENSE WINNER: SOLO JEFF
OVERALL WINNER: SOLO JEFF, 4-3 Jeff has actually picked a better starting lineup as a solo team in Robioland, but barely. He’s done better at picking quarterbacks (10.0 vs. 13.8), first receivers picked (11.0 vs. 12.2), tight ends (9.7 vs. 10.2) and defenses (15.6 vs. 17.4). But as you can see, it’s tight on average, he’s improved just 1.8 spots.
Jeff drafted better as a Pounder at first running back (28.8 vs. 29.0), second running back spot (29.2 vs. 32.7) and second wide receiver (16.4 vs. 20.6). Again, you can see it is close. On average, he did better as a Pounder in these three positions by an average of 2.6.
If I can take anything away from all this to help Jeff in the future it’s simple…draft better running backs. Whether he was with the Pounders (first RB: 28.8, second RB: 29.2) or solo (first RB: 29, second RB: 32.7), Jeff has been awful at drafting starting running backs. The first step to improving could be Maurice Jones-Drew with the third-pick of the 2012 draft.
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