It’s Robiobowl XV.
It’s The Dick-Taters vs. Welcome 2 Fla, Assholes. I think this video sums up this contest.
Now that we got that out of the way, let’s get serious. Rich and Griff, these two have been pretty good in Robioland. Griff is second all-time in points per game. Rich is third in the league. Griff has never finished in the bottom four in scoring in 15 seasons in this league. Rich has never finished bottom three in 10 years.
When it comes to winning, they do that just as well. Griff is 3rd best (winning 57% of his games heading into the season), while Rich sits fifth (winning 54% of his games heading into the season). They have combined for 20 playoff trips in 26 seasons. Yet, these two have never faced off in the playoff…until now.
THE MATCH UPS
Peyton Manning (Griff) > Jay Cutler (Rich C) No matter who Rich decided to start this week, Manning was getting the nod here. He’s not putting up back-to-back sub-400 games.
LeSean McCoy (Rich C) > C. Spiller (Griff) McCoy has the ability to be game-changer. So can Spiller, but so far this season, it has mostly been in a negative sense.
DeMarco Murray (Rich C) > Jordan Todman (Griff) Remember the fiasco in Dallas last Sunday when the Cowboys stopped running the ball? That’s not going to happen again. However, Todman has a nice match up, so this isn’t a big advantage for Rich.
Antonio Brown (Griff) > Greg Jennings (Rich C) Jennings is finally getting some love in the great white north, but Brown has been a star all season long.
Doug Baldwin (Rich C) = Anquan Boldin (Griff) Both could put up 250. Both could put up 90. This match up could be the deciding factor in this game.
Vernon Davis (Griff) > Julius Thomas (Rich C) Davis has been in beast mode lately (158 PPG in his last five), while Thomas has struggled to stay healthy.
Steven Hauschka (Griff) = Phil Dawson (Rich C) Hauschka has been better over the length of the full season, but over the last three weeks, Dawson has outscored the Seahawks kicker by 220 points.
Lions DST (Rich C) > Browns DST (Griff) Both Griff and Rich switch up the D’s in the title game. Both have good match ups, but the Lions get the nod because they are at home.
ROBIO’S DEEP THOUGHTS
As I’ve already said a million times, I truly believe you find your lineup and stick with it. You win with it, you lose with it. However, both Rich and Griff have taken my theory, dropped it on the ground, whipped out their fat ones and pissed all over it.
FIRST GRIFF…
His lineup changes were sort of forced on him because of injuries. Maurice Jones-Drew is expected to miss a second game, but after Andre Brown’s awful 22-point performance last week, Griff decided to go with Todman, a man I’ve never heard of until last week. Of course I heard of him because he delivered 153 yards in relief and is facing a weak Titans D this week.
At receiver, Griff had to sit Larry Fitzgerald after he suffered a concussion. However, even if he was healthy, sitting Fitzgerald would have been a good option, because the Seahawks are simply nasty against wide receivers (2nd best versus receivers in fantasy). In comes Boldin, who once had some value, but has been plagued by inconsistency (five games under 100 this year).
For Griff to win, he needs his stars to shine this week. 350 won’t be good enough by Peyton Manning. He’s broken 480 seven times this season and that’s the kind of effort he needs to deliver this week.
Spiller had a 340-point game three weeks ago and it looked like the former preseason stud would be ready to roll in the playoffs, yet he’s just put up 180 total points in his last two games. The Fins are coming to town and they have a pretty bad run defense (21st in the league), so Spiller needs to shine.
NOW RICH…
Calderon showing some large hairy nuggets, as he shakes up a winning formula and benched both Roddy White and Riley Cooper. The reality is, his receiving attack has been a huge problem all year. His receivers this year are 11th in the league. That’s bad, so he’s decided to start two receivers he’s not only never started, but two guys he just picked up off the waiver wire. Did I mention his balls again? Am I talking about Calderon’s sack a little too much?
Anyhow, thanks to a slew of injuries up in the great north west, Baldwin has become Russell Wilson’s second favorite target. He’s broken 140 points five times in his last six games. However, let’s not confuse him for a WR1. He’s never delivered a 100-yard receiving game this season and relies on TDs getting him his 100-point games.
Greg Jennings has been pretty horrible this year in Minnesota, but has suddenly clicked with Matt Cassel. He has 23 receptions over his last three weeks. 11 of those and 163 yards and a TD came this past week. However, it’s hard to see Jennings coming close to matching those numbers back-to-back weeks.
Still, Rich hasn’t been winning because of his receivers. He’s going to rely heavily on a dynamic back field that features LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray. The former has found his grove back lately and is facing a awful Bears D that is ranked 29th against the run. If he fails to hit 150 total yards and a score, I’d consider it a disappointing week.
As for Murray, he’s facing the Redskins who are the 30th rated run defense. Add in the fact that the Cowboys are being destroyed this week for giving up on the running game, if Murray gets less than 25 carries this week, I’ll personally drive to Dallas and kill the coaching staff myself.
However, in the end, beating Griff comes down to one thing…your quarterback has to keep up with the league MVP, Peyton Manning. This is where Rich really laid his balls on the table and dared everyone to take a bite. He benched Tony Romo against the Redskins and is rolling with Jay Cutler, his fourth week 16 free agent pick up (the Lions D is the fourth). The Bears QB did not look sharp last week in his first game back from injury, but he’s facing a Eagles D that made Matt Cassel look like an All-Pro.
TITLE GAME OUTCOME
Picking a team that has swapped out nearly half his lineup with week sixteen free agent pick ups goes against everything I believe in. Is Calderon really that smart or is he about to hand Griff a second straight “let my opponent over-think it” win? It’s tough. the reality is, it’s hard to argue that any one of those four decisions as a bad move. In reality, this game is a true toss up. CBS Guru has Rich as just a 16-point favorite and Griff could easily walk away a winner if Manning, Spiller, Brown and Davis all doing what they are capable of doing.
However, I’m banking on Rich’s backfield (McCoy & Murray) and look for Cutler to make Rich look wicked smart.
FINAL WORTHLESS PREDICTION OF THE SEASON: 1,612 – 1,498
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