Early Friday, Matt Neatock asked me if he beats Bob, would it be the league’s greatest upset? It was a great question and I hadn’t really thought about it previously. Matt was a 338-point underdog heading into the championship game. That’s actually an improvement from earlier in the week when Bob was favorite by about 400 points. Now I have no way of knowing if that’s the largest spread ever. If it’s not, it has to be close to the largest.
Anyhow, what have been the greatest title game upsets in this league’s history?
First, there hasn’t really been a lot of “upsets” in this league. Yes, the lower seed has won seven of the fifteen championships, but seeding doesn’t tell us much of anything. A team may start off bad, but then build a championship-level team as the season goes. You might have a solid team that’s just unlucky throughout the year. Then of course a high seed doesn’t mean great team. It could just be a lucky team.
The reality is, I only count four real championship game upsets. Here they are ranked…
RANKING “THE REAL” UPSETS
1. (7) DON OVER (5) ROBIO, 2008 SEASON This game is what I continue to call the greatest upset in a title game in league history. Don was the seven-seed, was just 7th in scoring and had hit 1,500 points just twice all season. He had just two All-Robio worthy players; first-team kicker Stephen Gostowski and third-team receiver Greg Jennings. On the flip side, I was just the 5-seed, but I was arguable the greatest team ever by season’s end (prior to Bob’s 2014 squad). I had won seven of my last nine heading into the title game, was the league’s top scorer, producing a weekly high score in my six final wins in the regular season. I wasn’t even slowing down in the post-season, averaging 1,700 points per game in my two playoff games. My team featured six All-Robio players, including three first teamers. Then I made my change. I swapped out DeAngelo Williams (and his 199 yards and four touchdowns) for Brian Westbrook and that rest was history. Don beat me for the second time in three seasons, 1,216 – 1,041. My point total was my lowest of the season.
2. (7) DON OVER (3) ROBIO, 2006 SEASON When you look at the seedings of these two teams, add in the history, this looked like a monster upset. However, in reality, it wasn’t. We both finished 7-6 and neither of us had a first-team All-Robio player. I did outscore Don by over 2,000 for the season though. Heading into the title game I had won five of six, including three weekly high scores. Don had limped in, losing three of four, before upsetting 2-seeded Molly and 5-seeded Bob in low scoring affairs. Yet, when the championship came around, if my memory is right, Don was actually a very small favorite, because he had just picked up a hot Ron Dayne and had great match ups, while I had horrible match ups. I specifically recall predicting Don to win (and I wasn’t being modest) and he did, pulling out a 1,617 – 844 win.
3. (7) BOB OVER (3) RICH B, 2011 SEASON When I went back and looked at this match up, I was surprised that I would call this an upset. I don’t remember seeing it as an upset at the time. Yes, Burrier had a winning record, won his division and he had out-scored Bob by about 1,700 points. Bob had to win his final two games to get to 6-7 and get into the playoffs (and he won one of those games despite not scoring 1,000). Hell, Rich had four All-Robio players to just one for Bob. Yet, Bob felt like (and probably was) the favorite in that title game. Part of the problem was that Burrier backed his way into the playoffs, losing five of his last six and then barely beat a 6-seed (Matt) and 8-seed (Don) to get to the finals. In the end, Bob cruised to a second straight title, winning 1,590 – 1,283
4. (4) ROBIO OVER (3) ERIC, 2012 SEASON Eric was at or near the top all season long (he was first in my rankings in all but one week I believe). He won nine games and easily earned the scoring title. As for me, I had lost three straight entering the playoffs and six of eight. I had hit 1,500 just once since week six. However, I got hot at the right time and hit 1,500 in both my quarterfinals and semifinals wins. In the title game, Eric was the favorite and had the late lead, but I rallied to pull off the slight upset, 1,973 – 1,871
UPSETS BASED ON SEEDING, BUT NOT REALLY
(4) BOB OVER (1) ROBIO, 2010 SEASON I refuse to call this one an upset at all. I was the top-seed, becoming the league’s only 12-1 team. I was second in scoring with one first-teamer (Peterson) and a pair of third-team players (Witten, M. Bryant). However, Bob was no slouch. He won eight games and was just 138 points behind me in points. He also had a first-team player (B. Lloyd) and a pair of second-team players (V. Davis and Packers D). The only difference between the two of us was, I showed up in both my playoff games (scoring over 1,700 in both the quarters and semis), while Bob followed up a 1,793-point quarters by escaping the semis scoring just 1,163. Of course, all that mattered was that you showed up in the title game. Bob’s squad did (sort of), mine didn’t (at all) as he beat me, 1,283 – 948.
(2) ROBIO OVER (1) MOLLY, 2002 SEASON Yes, Molly was the top-seed and had won eight of ten, including four straight entering the title game. Yet, she had no weekly high scores and none of her running backs or receivers were good enough to earn any All-Robio award. On the other hand, I shook off a 2-5 start and had won eight of nine heading into my match up with Molly, including four weekly high scores. I had averaged 1,775 points per game in my previous five. In the end, the finals weren’t even close, as I beat Molly, 1,841 – 1,112.
(2) BOB CASTRONE OVER (1) GRIFF COOMER, 2004 SEASON Griff was the top seed and had scored about 800 more points than Bob on the year, but by the time the title game came around, Bob was the clear favorite. First, Griff had dropped three of four to end the season and had scored 1,500 just once (in week 13) since week 11. Bob, on the other hand, had won seven straight and until the semifinals, had scored over 1,500 in six straight. Still, Griff had the lead until the very last seconds of the game, eventually losing to Bob, 1,216 – 1,169.
GREAT UPSETS THAT DIDN’T HAPPEN
Here are a list of title games that didn’t have upsets.
(1) JASON OVER (6) DAVID, 2001 SEASON Fucking David, by pulling out the best game of his career in the semifinals upset over me, he not only stole my third-straight title, but took away one of the best match ups the league would have seen in its early days. Jason was the top dog all season long, easily becoming the first team to average over 1,500 for a season. Hightower finished the regular season 7-6, dropping four straight to end the year before taking down 3-seeded Jimmy and then 2-seeded Robio in two low scoring games. However, he had no shot against Jason in the finals, because not only was his team not as good, but since we played our title game in week 17 back then, he had to sit three starters, including stud Daute Culpepper, because teams were resting their starters. While Jason was struggling in the post-season, he was winning and he did it again, as David became the first team to not break 1,000 in a title game.
(5) MATT OVER (7) RICH C, 2007 SEASON Matt might have been the 5-seed, but he was clearly the top dog heading into the playoffs. He had an unlucky start, losing four of his first five, before winning six straight. He was fourth in scoring and put up about 1,700 more points than Calderon. Rich had started the season winning four of five, before struggling down the stretch, dropping six of his final eight. However, he became the first team to beat a scoring champ (Don) and top seed (David) in the post-season. However, his little run ran out of steam as Matt won it easily, 1,444 – 811.
(1) MATT OVER (3) GRIFF, 2009 SEASON Overall, Griff was a solid team. He won eight games, won his division and was third in scoring. He had a late-season three-game losing streak, but was past that, averaging over 1,700 points in his two post-season games. However, even if he won it would have been a pretty solid upset. Matt had dominated all season long with the same roster all season long. He was first in scoring and had nearly averaged 1,900 points in his two playoff games. Matt proved his worth, winning easily, 1,608 – 1,384
(1) ROBIO OVER (2) GRIFF, 1999 SEASON The league’s first title game featured a 1-seed vs. a 2-seed, however, if Griff would have won this one, it would have been an amazing upset. In that first year, I was stacked (we only had eight teams). The gave featured six All-Robio players. Four of them were mine and mine were the big boys (Warner, James, Moss, Harrison), while Griff’s two were the kicker and the DST. Both teams entered the post-season hot, I had won 10 straight, Griff six straight, but I had five weekly high scores since week eight, while Griff had just two all season. This one wasn’t even close as I cruised to a 1,872 – 1,234 win.
(3) RICH B OVER (5) GRIFF, 2003 SEASON Griff was appearing in his third title game in the league’s fifth season, but he was the clear underdog. He entered the post-season riding a four-game losing streak, beating just a 4-seed (David) and a 7-seed (Rob M) to reach the finals. Burrier also finished slow, dropping four of his last five before beating just 6-seeded Matt and 8-seeded Calderon. However, he had outscored Griff by over 3,500 on the season and had both first-team All-Robio Peyton Manning and LaDainain Tomlinson. Another wipe out, 2,011 – 1,036.
(4) GRIFF OVER (7) COLBY, 2005 SEASON Griff was rolling into the title game, winner of five straight and eight of nine, breaking 1,300 in every game since week six. He had four All-Robio players, including two first-team players (Shaun Alexander and Antonio Gates). Colby had overcome a 1-4 start, finished the season winning four of six and took out 2-seeded Matt and 6-seeded Robio to reach the title game. In the end, despite having a pair of first-team All-Robio players (Tiki Barber and Steve Smith) Colby failed to show up and Griff, the heavy favorite, won easily, 1,882 – 739.
(2) RICH C OVER (5) GRIFF, 2013 SEASON This game wasn’t quite a toss-up, Calderon was the slight favorite, but no one would have been shocked if Griff pulled it out. Calderon won 10 games and finished 4th in scoring. Griff went 7-6, but scored just 203 less points than Rich. However, Calderon was hot, winning six of his last seven prior to the title game, putting up a pair of 1,600-point games in the final week of the season and the quarterfinals. Griff wasn’t bad, yet prior to his playoff run, he hadn’t won back-to-back games since weeks five and six. Griff was able to keep this one close, but Calderon’s backfield of McCoy/Murray was too much, as he won 1,496 – 1,270.
(2) ROBIO OVER (4) GRIFF, 2000 SEASON I had more wins, a higher seed and had nearly 1,500 points for the season, but come playoff time, neither Griff nor I were blowing the league away. Heading into the title game, I hadn’t hit 1,500 in my previous five, while Griff hadn’t done it in four straight. The game would have been a toss-up and I pulled out a low scoring affair, 1,448 – 1,197.
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