BOB CASTRONE
Before we get started, let’s get one thing straight. Bob is good. Bob is better than good. In fact, you can call him great…he won’t mind. However, it doesn’t hurt to be really good and really, really lucky.
It’s just the facts of fantasy life. Look at almost any champion in this league starting with the new era especially (post-2003) and you will find that their opponents didn’t do much scoring. In fact, let’s just do that.
CHAMPIONSHIP TEAMS’ OPPONENTS SCORING:
1999 – Robio: 5th (out of 8 teams) 2000 – Robio: 3rd 2001 – Jason: 10th 2002 – Robio: 2nd 2003 – Rich B: 3rd 2004 – Bob: 12th 2005 – Griff: 9th 2006 – Don: 10th 2007 – Matt: 5th 2008 – Don: 7th 2009 – Matt: 12th 2010 – Bob: 12th 2011 – Bob: 9th
As you can see, Bob has benefited from others failing to score. In his three championship years his opponents were dead last twice (2004, 2010) and 9th (2011). Overall, Bob’s opponents are last in scoring, averaging just 1,223 points per game. That’s nearly 100 points less than Masterson’s opponents, who average 1,320 points per game.
Now again, I wouldn’t call Bob a lucky team like I would Molly. Why the latter and not the former? Well, Molly is just 9th in scoring in this league (last since 2003), yet has been one of the winningest teams thanks to her opponents not scoring. Bob on the other hand is fifth in scoring. That’s good.
Still, I wanted to dig deeper into the ‘luck’ side of Bob’s success. I wanted to focus on the post-season, because in my mind, this is where it appeared Bob and lady lucky rip off some clothes and get down and dirty.
In 16 playoff games, Bob’s opponents score just 1,212 points per game…that’s not the lowest in the league (that’s me), just the second lowest in the league.
But I really decided to dig real deep into Bob’s post-season past and what I found was, it’s not really about how much his opponents scored, but how much they scored compared to the points they put up just prior to facing Bob.
When you look at the first-round quarterfinals, you actually see that Bob doesn’t catch many breaks. In fact, Bob’s first-round opponents always scored more when facing him. Prior to facing Bob, in their last game of the regular season, his opponents averaged 1,192 PPG. However, in the quarters against Bob, they averaged 1,230 PPG. That’s a +38 in my book. Five out of seven times the opponent scored more.
However, when Bob reached the semis, his fortunes changed dramatically. His semi-opponents averaged a stunning 1,754 PPG in the quarters, but when they faced off with Bob the following week, they scored an average of 1,232 PPG. That’s an unbelievable 522-point drop. And to prove it wasn’t just one big game fluke, of the six semifinals opponents Bob faced, all six scored less points in the semis than the quarters.
Now in the finals, the luck continues. Of the three teams Bob has faced in the title game, those three teams averaged a solid 1,496 PPG in the game that got them into the finals, but once in the finals, those teams scored just 1,133 points per game. That’s a drop of 363 points.
When you include all post-season games played by Bob’s opponents in the semis and finals, the average point drop from the game played just prior to facing Bob to actually facing Bob is -484
Now the question is, am I just picking on Bob? First, I’m not picking on Bob. The argument to make is, if these teams were any good, their scoring wouldn’t drop like it does. Fact is, Bob’s teams win titles because they don’t collapse in the big games. In his three title games, his scoring has actually increased by 162 points per game from the semis.
Speaking of those semis, remember how I said Bob’s opponents’ scores drop by an average of 522 PPG from quarters-to-semis? Well, Bob’s scores drop an average of 435 points per game from quarters-to-semis. Clearly, it looks like a common trend to have scores drop in the semis.
Again though, this isn’t really about Bob’s greatness, this is a post about luck/opponents scoring. So my final question is, how lucky have all league champions (excluding Bob) been in the semis and finals?
Okay, in the semis Bob’s opponents’ points dropped a stunning 522 points per game. As for the rest of the league champions, their semis opponents’ points also dropped 316 PPG. That’s a pretty solid drop, but still 206 points better than Bob’s opponents.
However, in the semis-to-finals stat, Bob’s opponents’ scores dropped 363 PPG. As for the rest of the mug holders, their opponents scored on average 479 less points per game. In this case, Bob has had it tougher than the average league champion.
So, I’ve written a lot and dropped a lot of numbers and PPG’s, what is my conclusion?
On average, in the regular season, Bob is the luckiest team. It’s simple, his opponents scored the least amount of points. When you compare his championship regular seasons to other league champions, he again comes out on the lucky side, although it’s not that overwhelming.
In the post-season though, yes Bob gets lucky, but you know what, so does everyone else. Like I already said, to bring home a mug, you have to be good and lucky.
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