I began my postseason predictions with a simple question…could anyone prevent a Rich Calderon vs Robio Murray finals. That question has been answered…nope. This is a good thing, because what better way to end a season other than having the two best teams facing off for the title?
Of course, we’ve had 1s vs 2s before in this league. Those matchups are below. As one can see, it’s only happened four times, with a 12-year gap between the second and third time. The 2-seed has won three in a row. However, I would argue that the favorite, actually won all four times. Three of the four times the game featured the league high scorer. In all three times that happened, the league’s top scorer won the title game.
1999 – #1 Robio defeated #2 Griff, 1,872-1,234 2004 – #2 Bob defeated #1 Griff, 1,216-1,169 2016 – #2 Rich C defeated #1 Jeff, 1,846-1,180 2017 – #2 Matt defeated #1 Bob, 1,537-1,119
Of course, based on seeding, win-loss records and points, there has never been a greater matchup than this one. Rich and I have a combined record of 27-3, which Rich losing just one game all season (to me), while I enter the finals riding an 11-game winning streak. Our combined breakdown when you subtract the games against one another is an astonishing 232-49. Combined, these two squads are averaging 1,633 points per game. Again, nothing like this has happened before in this league.
OTHER FUN FACTS:
Calderon and I are facing off in his league’s title game, too.
In his league, we met back in the title game during the 2009 season. He was a 15-1 top seed, who suffered only one defeat all season (to me). I was the 2-seed and scoring champ. I beat him in the finals.
This is Rich’s second straight year in the finals. Only myself, Griff, Bob and Matt have done it before this year. Only Griff has suffered back-to-back defeats in a title game (he did twice: 1999-2000, 2003-2004).
My 122-21 record season breakdown is the greatest ever. Think about this for a moment. Of the 12 teams in 13 weeks, a team would have beaten me just 21 times.
2019 RECORD Rich C: 14-1 Robio: 13-2
2019 POINTS Rich C: 1,564 PPG Robio: 1,702 PPG
2019 BREAKDOWN Rich C: 107-47 Robio: 133-21 (I’m 9-5 against Calderon)
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD
RICH C – Despite some early struggles, Calderon has rebounded in the postseason lately. He’s 15-10 overall, which is fifth best in the league. He’s one of just four players who averages over 1,400 in the postseason. He’s 8-5 in the quarterfinals, struggling at first as a higher seed. Three times between 2003-2012 he was seeded #2 and all three times he lost in the quarterfinals. However, since 2013, he has two championships, both as a two seed (2013, 2016). He’s one of five teams to reach the finals at least five times and he’s made it that far in four of the last seven seasons. Overall, he’s 2-2 in the finals.
ROBIO – While I haven’t spent a lot of time in the playoffs lately, when I have made it in the past, I’ve proven to be nearly unstoppable once there. I’m 24-8 in the postseason. The 24 wins are a league high and the .750 winning percentage is a league best. I’m an amazing 12-1 in the quarterfinals. The only time I’ve lost in the quarters was when #8 Calderon stunned #1 me back in 2003. I’m also 8-4 in the semifinals and my four championships are tied for a league high (4-3 overall in title game).
TITLE GAME HISTORY BY SEED
1-SEED The top seed is now 31-16 overall in the postseason, having now reached the title game for a record 10th time. However, the 1-seed has only managed to win it all four of the previous nine trips to the finals. Robio in 1999, Jason in 2001, Matt in 2009 and Bob in 2014. All four of those teams were heavy favorites to win it all. In fact, no 1-seed that did not earn the scoring crown has ever won the title.
2-SEED While the two-seed has struggled to survive the quarterfinals at times, currently just 10-11 in the playoff’s first round, once they move on, they move like bosses. The twos are a league best 8-2 in the semifinals and are 6-1 in the finals. The last two-seed to reach the finals and loss was Griff, back in 1999, our first year of existence. The six two-seed champions are: Robio in 2000, Bob in 2004, Calderon in 2013, Griff in 2015, Calderon again in 2016 and Matt in 2017, meaning the two-seed has won four out of the last six championships.
RICH C vs ROBIO | THIS SEASON Calderon and I meet back in week ten. The matchup screamed classic. I was the league’s top scorer and second best team in the standings, riding a five-game winning streak. Rich was 9-0, looking to break the record for best start to start a season in league history. For Rich, hopefully that game wasn’t a title game preview, because he bombed.
I crushed Dick’s Taters by 729 points, 1,919 to 1,190. I had just added Julio and the Ravens, had no bye-weeks to deal with and was missing just James Conner. Led by Lamar’s 518, Michael Thomas’s 304 and Conner’s replacement, Melvin Gordon, who scored 326, I nearly beat Rich with those three players alone. For Rich, he was without Hopkins, Thielen and the Pats defense. Only Chubb and Andrews came to play, combing for 468. However, Aaron Rodgers scored just 148, while his receivers (Diggs, Williams) had just five catches for 112 yards.
RICH C vs ROBIO | CAREER Overall I led the series, 11-9. Neither one of us has dominated this series. I once won three in row back 2010-2012, but Calderon beat me three times in a row between 2015-2017.
RICH C vs ROBIO | POSTSEASON Our postseason history is more about how we should have played and didn’t. We did face off once in what proved to be a classic. Back in 2003, Rich’s first season in the league, he needed a miracle to make the playoffs. He began the year 1-6, but managed to finish 5-2 and thanks to a bunch of teams losing, snagged the 8-seed. His reward was facing me, the top seed and scoring champ; who also recovered from a rough start (0-4). While I had crushed Rich earlier that season, Calderon pulled off the first ever #8 over #1 in postseason history, beating me 1,953-1,535. His 1,953 were the most points he scored all season. He would lose the following week.
Still, the postseason history is more about missed opportunities. In 2010, I was a one-loss 1-seed. Rich was the 2-seed scoring champ. The title game should have been us. I made it. Rich lost to 7-seed Don in the quarterfinals. Three years later, I was again the top-seed (and scoring champ) and Calderon was again the 2-seed. We both survived the quarterfinals, but I fell in the semifinals. Rich would end up winning his first title that season.
QUARTERBACK – Advantage: Robio
RICH C | Russell Wilson Calderon has two legit starters he could place at quarterback in the finals, but while his second round pick, Aaron Rodgers, will face the Vikings, Wilson should get the start. Fact is, he’s been the better starter, finishing 4th this season among all arms, and he has a much friendlier matchup, at home against a bad Cardinals defense. Having said that, it’s been a while since Wilson has been great. Back in week nine, he scored 584 points. Since then, he has no 300-point games. In his last five games, he has no 300-yard games, only two multi-touchdown games (while tossing an interception in four straight games). Oh, he has rushed for more than 30 yards just once.
ROBIO | Lamar Jackson What more can I say that hasn’t already been said? The League MVP is the reason why my team is crushing all records. Combining touchdowns both thrown and rushing, Lamar has 40 on the season, to just seven turnovers. While he’s going to easily pass for over 3,000 yards this season, he also managed to break the record for most yards rushing by a quarterback (1,103 yards). Oh and he’s facing a Browns team that actually beat him this year, but just got run over by Kyle Murray and the Cardinals.
RUNNING BACK #1 – Advantage: None
RICH C | Nick Chubb Don’t look now, but Chubb is now the leading rusher in the NFL, passing both McCaffrey and Cook this past week. He’s rushed for 1,408 yards on the season, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He’s also caught 35 balls for 44 yards. The only thing holding him back are his lack of scores. He has a total of just eight, while all other top-ten backs have passed double digit.
This week he’ll face the Ravens D. While Baltimore is solid against the run (7th), they’re better against the pass (2nd), so look for the Browns to feed Chubb. Fact is, when thee two faced off in week four, Chubb scored a season high 546 points, thanks to 165 yards rushing and three scores (of his eight this season).He’s not going to repeat that, but 300+ is realistic.
ROBIO | EZEKIEL ELLIOT Oddly enough, Elliot has put together a quietly good season. He has 1,188 yards rushing, 381 more in the air (one of five to be over 1,500 for the season). He’s got 12 touchdowns, which is fourth most and after a sluggish November, he’s gotten hot again, producing 746 fantasy points in his last two.
He and the Cowboys travel to Philly this week in a game that will decide who goes to the playoffs and who doesn’t. Against the Eagles back in week seven, Elliot had 147 total yards and a score for 354 fantasy points.
RUNNING BACK #2 – Advantage: Rich C
RICH C | Todd Gurley For most of the 2019 season, Gurley was a bust. The Rams were clearly leaving him out of the game plan. They were passing too much and Gurley’s backups were stealing too much playing time. However, he’s lately turned things on. He’s produced three straight 200-point games (and four out of the last five). Still, he’s averaging just 3.9 yards per carry and is just 13th in fantasy in rushing. Worse yet, the Rams will be facing the 49ers this week, who are currently 2nd against the run.
ROBIO | Melvin Gordon or James Conner Fact is, I don’t know who I’m going to start at RB2. Gordon was rolling lately. Between weeks 9-14, he had two 200-point games and two 300-point games. That’s RB1 numbers. However, against the Vikings this past week, he had just seven carries for 28 yards, fumbling twice. Was this game a fluke? Is it a sign of things to come? I have no answer.
I also have James Conner. The Steelers back returned last week and looked alright. Against a tough Bills D, he got eight of the teams 14 carries by backs and average a decent 5.2 yards per carry. Perhaps, one week removed from injury, I should be sliding him back into the starting lineup against a beat up Jets D? For now, it’s Gordon. Don’t change what’s been working, but I won’t know for sure until game time.
WIDE RECEIVER #1 – Advantage: None
RICH C | DeAndre Hopkins Like Gurley above, Hopkins was a bit of a disappointment this year. Through 11 weeks he had just two 200+ fantasy games, the same amount of games where he scored under 100. However, suddenly he’s the fourth best wideout in football. Since week 12, he’s had two 300-point games and 238 points last week. Best yet, he’ll be facing the Bucs this week, who are the worst team against receivers in fantasy.
ROBIO | Michael Thomas This season, there has been no better receiver than Michael Thomas. He’s already broken 1,500 receiving yards and he’s the only wideout with over 100 catches (he’s at 133, 34 more than the next guy). He’s had just one bad game all season and will face a Titans D that is average at best against receivers in fantasy.
WIDE RECEIVER #2 – Advantage: Robio
RICH C | Stefon Diggs After a terrible start to the season, Diggs rediscovered his magic once he was traded too Calderon. Since week six, he’s had four games over 280 and is over 1,000 yards for the season. Having said that, he hasn’t sniffed 200 over his last three, thanks to a lack of touchdowns, which has been a problem all year. He has just five scores on the season and three of them came in one game. Of course, one of those scores was against the Packers, the Vikings week 16 opponent. Diggs scored 128 fantasy points in that game.
ROBIO | Julio Jones Julio has 82 catches for 1,150 yards, which for most receivers is a solid season. But this is Julio, so it feels like less than his best. Of course, the lack of scores was killing him. Prior to last week, he went nine weeks without a touchdown, before scoring twice last week. This week, he’ll face a Jaguars D that has been awful since they’ve traded Ramsey. There is no reason why a player like Jones couldn’t light up a defense like this, which means he probably won’t. Still, CBS has him as the highest projected wideout of the week, despite a shoulder injury.
TIGHT END – Advantage: Rich C
RICH C | Mark Andrews While his early season numbers are more impressive, Andrews still remains a solid tight end. He has 58 catches for 759 yards, but best yet, he has eight scores, including five in his last six games. The beauty of Andrews is that he can help minimize the damage Lamar can do, as he is one of Jackson’s favorite targets in the red zone.
MATT | Henry Hunt For a hot minute, Hunt looked as good as the rest of the best of tight ends. Once he returned to action, Rivers always seemed to look for him, as he typically got about eight targets per game. However, lately, he’s disappeared from the offense. In his last three games, he has just 6 catches for 78 yards., twice scoring under 30 fantasy points in a game. At least playing the Raiders should help, as the Raiders are 30th in fantasy against tight ends.
PLACE KICKER – Advantage: None
RICH C | Harrison Butker If you include the regular season plus the two playoff games, Butker is averaging nearly 113 points per game. He’s made 16 field goals in his last six games, including three each in his last two; missing just one in that span. The only downside to this week is the matchups. Kansas City is in Chicago, where kicks can be troublesome. The Bears are 4th against kickers in fantasy this season.
MATT | Will Lutz Because the Saints like to score, Lutz gets plenty of action, attempting at least two field goals per game in every game, except two, both before week five. He’s also made his last fifteen, which helped propel him to first-team All-Robio, just ahead of Butker.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS – Advantage: Rich C (slight)
RICH C | Patriots DST Do you want some irony? Last year the Patriots and Ravens were the two defenses starting in the title game. Well, they’re both back. The Patriots are a turnover, scoring machine. They have 36 total turnovers, including 25 interceptions. No one else has 20. They also have seven scores, witch leads the league. This week, they face the Bills. Buffalo is a good team, but both Allen and Singletary have trouble holding onto the ball.
ROBIO | Ravens DST Since I traded for the Ravens D, I’ve rotated them in and out with the Jets D, based on matchup. I’m not rotating. The Ravens, who don’t have a ton of sacks (34) or turnovers (22), are just a solid D that keeps teams away from the end zone (17.50 PPG allowed). They also have five scores, second to New England. This week, they’re facing a Browns team that crushed them earlier in the season. I’m always a fan of the revenge factor.
SO, WHO IS GOING TO WIN THIS THING?
CBS has labeled me, a 222-point favorite. That seems about right. Yet, with so much talent on both teams, one guy on either side can sway the results. And let’s not forget, Calderon was a 207-point favorite last year and couldn’t get past Matt…so being the favorite don’t mean shit.
For me, I’m worried about my running back two spot. Outside of Elliot, no back on my roster is projected to reach 200. I think one will, I just don’t know which one (Gordon, Conner). I also need Henry to get back to form. A 30-point game won’t work against a foe like Rich.
In fact, based on my advantage ratings above, I have Rich as the better team. He’s favorite in three spots (RB2, TE, DST), while I’m favorite at WR2 and of course, Quarterback. Of course, Lamar is not going to score over 600 again, but I love the fact that both Jackson, Elliot, Tomas and the Ravens D all have something to play for. My stars are all looking to secure either a top-seed, a bye-week in the playoffs or a spot in the playoffs. That seems like plenty of motivation for my big dogs.
I’m not going to be a pussy and pick against myself. While Rich can win his league title, I’m taking the Freaks.
ROBIO OVER CALDERON, 1,648 – 1,582
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