Eight teams. Seven Games. One Champion…and the only true way to get my dick hard anymore.
Last year, I wrote in my headline for my predictions: Can anyone prevent Bob vs Matt?
Well, the answer was no. The fact was, those two dominated the regular season like Black Panther dominated black actor casting calls and it was tough seeing anyone else pulling off the upset. That’s sort of been the way of the league lately. Every year we seem to have one or two teams that are just so much better than the rest.
The last time we had a surprise champion was me in 2012 and that was only a surprise if you forgot how good my team was before injuries kicked in. My point…things have gotten predictable. This year, that’s not the case. I count five legit contenders. It would have been six if Masterson didn’t lose Hunt.
FUN FACT BEFORE WE GET STARTED: Both the top seeds will be facing a team that they faced last week, which means it’s a team they have faced twice this year. Marc has defeated Eric twice this season, while Bob has defeated Matt two times as well, so both Marc and Bob are aiming for a third win over one team. Teams aiming for a third win over a for has happened ten times in this league (three of those times happened in our first year). Overall, the team that was 2-0 managed to go 3-0 half the time (5-5), but the 0-2 team has won four of the last five meetings.
Anyhow, let’s stop wasting time and get to the predictions.
2018 RECORD Marc: 10-3-0 Eric: 6-7-0
2018 SCORING Marc: 1,511 (4th) Eric: 1,384 (8th)
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD: Marc: 0-0 overall This is Pattini’s first trip to the Robioland postseason, after finishing last in his first season in the league (2017)
Eric: 3-7 overall, 2-5 in the quarters, 1-1 in the semis, 0-1 in the finals After missing the postseason in his first six years in the league, Eric has made it to the show in seven of his last 11 years. While he’s failed to escape the quarterfinals five times, he did reach the title game as a 4-seed/scoring champ back in 2012. Last year, as the 6-seed, he took down #3 Calderon in the first round, before falling to Bob in the semis.
1-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 28-15 overall | The nine trips to the finals are a league best. If Marc reaches the title game this year, that means half our #1s made it to the last game. Four #1’s have gone on to win the championship, but the last two lost in the title game.
8-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 5-20 overall | While the 8-seed has pulled off four upsets in the quarterfinals, they are 0-4 in the semifinals, having never reached the title game.
#1 VS #8 IN PLAYOFFS: The #1 seed leads the series 15-4. The #1 seed has won five straight. The last 8-seed to beat a 1-seed was Burrier beating Griff in 2012. Before that, it was even steven. Between 2003 and 2012, the seeds were 5-5 in the quarterfinals.
MARC v ERIC | THIS SEASON These two have faced off twice this season, including this past week. Back in week two, led by Big Ben’s 568 points and a pair of 300-point efforts by Gurley and Smith-Schuster, Marc beat Eric, 1,721-1,392. In that defeat, Eric got 392 from Diggs, but zero points from his tight end.
In the season’s final regular season game, Marc took care of business in a low-scoring affair. Thanks to 450 from Gurley, he was able to overcome zero from his kicker and 10 points from his defense. It certainly helped that Eric got a combined 208 points from Julio, Ridley, Diggs and Gostkowski, as Pattini won it 1,288-957.
MARC vs ERIC | CAREER With his two wins this season, Marc takes the lead in the all-time series, 2-1. Last year, while Pattini was struggling to earn his first career win, Eric defeated him in week five, 1,240-834.
MARC vs ERIC | POSTSEASON Since this is Marc’s first trip into our postseason, these two have never faced off before in the playoffs.
FROM WORST TO FIRST | THE MARC PATTINI STORY Why is Marc a contender? Because has the best running back in football and in weeks 14-16, with the weather turning nasty, running backs make all the difference in the world. Last year during this stretch, Gurley had 473 total yards and six touchdowns. Yes, I know the Rams are facing the Bears this week, the top fantasy defense, but someone like Gurley is matchup-proof. On top of that, Lamar Miller has been heating up, as the Texans have finally turned him into a feature back. No, he’s not going to start spitting out 400-point games, but he’s a solid low-end RB1.
On top of that, all of Marc’s best games have come when the Steelers passing game was clicking. In Pattini’s five best games this year, Big Ben and Smith-Schuster have combined to average 700 points per contest. In Marc’s five worst games, they’ve combined for just 414 points. Fortunately for the top seed, no team is better set up in the postseason. Through weeks 14-16, the Steelers have the most pass-friendly SOS, while JuJu will see the 5th best SOS against wide receivers.
LUCKY TO BE HERE | THE ERIC VOZZOLA STORY Since Eric is technically 8th in scoring, he’s not quite lucky to be in the playoffs, but this team does not have the juice to squeeze out a single victory in this year’s postseason.
Aaron Rodgers has been a shell of his former self and really has had no business starting over a healthy Mitchell Trubisky. No matter, Eric has refused to bench the head cheese and luckily for him, it’s only cost him one victory. According to my math, in games where Trubisky has outscored Rodgers since week four, Eric is 5-1. Weird. Oddly enough, I can’t blame him for leaving in Rodgers this week. He’s facing the Falcons defense that is allergic to defense and I can see Rodgers trying to stick it to his former coach with a big victory in the first game since he’s gone.
Of course, Eric will need a monster performance from Rodgers. His running back situation is easily the worst of the playoff teams. Spencer Ware got the start last week, but all he proved was that he was no Kareem Hunt. He averaged 3.4 yards per carry and in the quarterfinals, the Chiefs face the third toughest run defense. Speaking of bad matchups, Eric’s first-team All-Robio defense (the Bears) host the high-flying Rams, so he can’t count on another 200 from them this week.
This leaves us with Eric’s three wide. Now there are good three wides, like Bob’s (Thomas, Beckham, Adams) and Calderon’s (Hopkins, Cook, Thielan) and then there is Eric’s triplets. Of the three, only Julio is a WR1. Diggs shows flashes, but is not consistent enough and Ridley just means Eric has done a poor job finding something better.
Can Eric find a way to win with this group? Miracles do happen, but my gut says he’s done winning for the season.
2018 RECORD Bob: 10-3-0 Matt: 6-7-0
2018 SCORING Bob: 1,487 PPG (5th) Matt: 1,401 (7th)
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD: Bob: 20-9 overall, 11-2 in the quarters, 5-6 in the semis, 4-1 in the finals One of the most successful teams in the playoffs, Bob has lost in the quarterfinals just once since 2009 and has played in four of the last eight championships.
Matt: 12-6 overall, 5-4 in the quarters, 4-1 in the semis, 3-1 in the finals In the regular season, Matt is a true hit-or-miss team, having missed the playoffs six times in fifteen years. The same is true in the postseason. He’s only escaped the quarterfinals in five of his nine tries, but in four of those five times, he made it to the finals.
2-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 23-14 overall | Six champions have come from the two seed (the most of any seed) and they are 6-1 in the title game. The only 2-seed to reach the finals and lose was Griff way back in 1999. After taking a 8-year break from winning it all, the 2-seed has dominated lately. They’ve won three straight titles and four out of the last five, beating the #1 seed the last two years.
7-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 18-17 overall | The years between 2005-2011, that’s known as the era of the 7-seed. A surprising three champions came from the 7-spot during that time, as the 7-seed reached the finals five times during that seven-year period.
#2 VS #7 IN PLAYOFFS: The 7-seed holds a slime 10-9 lead over the 2-seed, although the 2-seed has won the last three. The last 7-seed to win was Griff over Colby in 2014. However, between 2002-14, the 7-seed dominated, winning 10 of 13.
BOB vs MATT | THIS SEASON Bob has taken both meetings with Matt this season. Coming off a week one defeat where he produced the week’s lowest score, Castrone rebounded with a 1,526-1,259 win against Matt in week two. He got 344 from Deshaun Watson and 234 from Elliot, as every player hit 100. Neatock managed to get a combined 528 from James Conner and A.J. Green, but Demaryius Thomas was a no-show with 36.
This past week, Bob pulled out a low-scoring (for this season anyhow), 1,388 – 1,038. Castrone watched five players break 200, led by Elliot’s 330 points. Neatock only got three players to break 200, led by Barkley’s 292, but his kicker, his defense and A.J. Green combined for just 44 points.
BOB vs MATT | CAREER Bob leads the all-time series, 14-9, but it wasn’t always this way. From 2003 through 2010, Neatock led the series 7-5. However, since 2011, Matt has managed to beat Bob just once in the regular season and has dropped seven of his last eight.
BOB vs MATT | POSTSEASON These two both joined the league back in 2003 and through the first 11 seasons together, they only faced off once in the postseason. That would be 2007, when #5 Matt defeated #3 Bob in the semifinals. However, over the last four seasons, these two have faced off twice in the finals. In 2014, Bob escaped with a stunning one-point win to earn his fourth career championships. However, Neatock got his revenge last year, when he won his third title, handing Bob his first ever championship game defeat.
AMERICA’S TRADING PARTNER | THE BOB CASTRONE STORY This season’s 10-win Bob team may easily be his most creative. He picked up Deshaun Watson last year and kept him. He traded for Ezekiel Elliot late last year and kept him. He traded for both Odell Beckham and Michael Thomas, plus picked up via free agency, David Njoku and Graham Gano. The only two starters on Bob’s team that he actually just drafted were Davante Adams and the Saints DST.
Winning with just one running back is hard. I know this, because only two people have won a championship by going three wide; Bob in 2004 and Don in 2008. That’s it. The reason is simple, we have a hierarchy in this league. The quarterbacks score the most. The running backs score the second most and the wide receivers score the third most. How do I know this? Well, 14 quarterbacks scored over 3,000 fantasy points this year. Eight running backs did it, while only one wide receiver managed to do so. Now once you get out of the top-10, things even out a bit, but since we’re in the playoffs, we’re talking about the elites of the elite.
Of course, Bob has the elite. To run three-wide successfully, you need a stud back and that Bob has. Elliot has dominate lately and the Cowboys have a very run-friendly schedule over their next three. If he doesn’t score 300 per game, Bob can consider it a disappointment.
Obviously, if Castrone wants to chase that fifth title (which would be a league record), he’s going to need some big digits from his wideouts. Luckily for him, the Packers (Adams) and Saints (Thomas) have the third easiest SOS for wide receivers, while Beckham has to settle for a top-20. Even better? While Njoku has yet to look like an elite tight end, the Browns next three games are against the Panthers, Broncos and Bengals, which means he’ll face the easiest SOS for tight ends.
For Bob, the only thing that could really go wrong is at the quarterback spot. Deshaun Watson failed to fulfill the promise he showed in limited action last year. He’s currently ranked #11 among all quarterbacks, which makes him the worst starting quarterback in our fantasy playoffs. While he has delivered a couple of 400-point games since week six, take away those two and he’s averaging just 168 points per game. If he happens to have a sub-200 point game when Bob is facing a Mahomes or a Newton, it won’t matter what those other folks do.
TITLE DEFENSE FOR DUMMIES| THE MATT NEATOCK STORY You know your trip to the postseason is going to be a rough one when your three best players all face arguable their toughest opponents right when you’re trying to win a quarterfinals game. Jared Goff will be outdoors at night in the cold, facing the league’s top defense this week. Saquon Barkley will be on the road against a tough Redskins D that’s trying to salvage their season. Dalvin Cook, who still doesn’t look 100%, will face a amp’d up and improving Seahawks D in Seattle.
On any typical Sunday, these three could easily deliver a upset, but those matchups seem to be too much to overcome. And I haven’t even mentioned that Matt’s wide receiver duo wouldn’t even scare a skittish kitten. Demaryius Thomas has 13 catches in his last five games and Jarvis Landry has broken 200 just three times all year.
Zach Ertz and the Vikings DST are good, but they ain’t that good. On to next year…
2018 RECORD Colby: 7-6-0 Don: 6-7-0
2018 SCORING Colby: 1,584 PPG (1st) Don: 1,446 PPG (6th)
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD: Colby: 7-9 overall, 5-4 in the quarters, 2-3 in the semis, 0-2 in the finals Colby returns to the postseason after a two-year break. The three years before that, he went 2-3, with all three loses coming via Griff. He’s won more than he’s lost in the quarterfinals (only five people can claim that), but is just 2-5 after that. He did reach the finals twice, but both times lost to…you guessed it, Griff. Luckily for Mr. Hall, Griff is sitting this one out.
Don: 8-8 overall, 4-6 in the quarters, 2-2 in the semis, 2-0 in the finals It’s been seven years since Don last won a playoff game, which happens when you miss the playoffs in five out of six seasons. Don does have those two 7-seed championships (he’s the only person undefeated in the finals), but take away that 6-0 record in 2006 and 2008, he’s just 2-8 every other year.
3-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 20-18 overall | Has reached the title game seven times (tied for second most), but has managed to win just two titles and those championships happened a long time ago (Robio in 2002 and Burrier in 2003). The 3-seed has lost the title game in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2012 and 2014.
6-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 10-18 | The second worst seed to be, based on a .357 winning percentage. While the six-seed isn’t too bad in the quarterfinals, they struggle beyond that, going 2-6 in the semifinals and have lost both games in the finals (2001 and 2015).
#3 VS #6 IN PLAYOFFS: Overall the #3 seed leads the series, 11-9, but have dropped their last three meetings. In 2015, #6 Colby beat #3 Eric. The following season, #6 Robio defeated #3 Don and last year, #6 Eric upset #3 Calderon.
COLBY v DON | THIS SEASON These two met in a high scoring affair back in week four. In a game where Patrick Mahomes “only” scored 326, Don couldn’t take advantage of it. He got 542 from Kamara, but T.Y. Hilton was the only other player to break 200 (230). Meanwhile, Colby got 312 from Gio Bernard and 294 from Josh Brown, to help led Colby to a 1,717-1,610 win. The loss would be the second in what would turn into a six-game losing streak for Don.
COLBY vs DON | CAREER This use to be a pretty even series. Through their first eight games, Don actually led the series, 5-3, with Don’s two-game sweep in 2007 being the difference. However, starting in 2010, Colby started to dominate and has actually beaten Don in seven of their last eight meetings. He leads the all-time series, 10-6.
COLBY vs DON | POSTSEASON These two have never faced off in the postseason before, which isn’t too shocking. Since Colby joined the league in 2004, these two have shared a trip to the playoff party just six times all together.
IN MAHOMES WE TRUST | THE COLBY HALL STORY Let’s just ask the only question that matters? Do matchups matter to Patrick Mahomes? He has faced 12 foes. Of the four worst defenses he has faced, Mahomes has averaged 511 points per game. In the middle four, he has averaged 406 PPG. In his four toughest competitors (which includes two battles with the Broncos), he has averaged 359 points per game.
I only ask because Colby relies so much on his quarterback (28% of his scoring has come from Mahomes) and while the Chiefs have had a pretty pass-friendly SOS this season, the road in the next three will be more challenging. In fact, with the Ravens, Chargers and Seahawks all up next, Kansas City will face the third toughest SOS for quarterbacks and what those numbers above tell me is, Mahomes numbers will dip a bit, which means Colby needs scoring from other places.
So one would think it’s a bad thing that Colby’s backfield is beat to shit, but this might be a case where he’s gotten better with no names like Gus Edwards and Jeff Wilson. The former has looked amazing in the Ravens new run first, run second and might as well run it again offense. He has totalled 315 yards in his last three games, getting 20+ carries in his last two. Meanwhile, last week with Breida out, Wilson stepped in and stepped over Seattle with 134 total yards.
Add in a elite wideout (Antonio Brown), the league’s top tight end (Travis Kelce) and the underrated Tyler Lockett, and perhaps Colby will have the pieces to turn his scoring crown into a actual championship mug.
For me, his biggest challenge will be this week. First, Don is no slouch. There was a reason why he was one of the preseason favorites. If Mahomes is going to have a truly awful week, this is it. The Ravens, with Lamar Jackson running the show, run the fuck out of the ball and just keep it out of the opponents’ hands. In Atlanta this past week, Baltimore had the ball for 37 minutes. In the second half, the Falcons had the ball for just five minutes, running only 13 total plays. Time to find out if Mahomes is truly matchup-proof. If Mr. Hall escapes the quarters, he’s probably the favorite the rest of the way.
BACK IN THE DAY, THINGS WERE GOOD | THE DON VOZZOLA STORY It was only a few weeks ago this team was losing six straight, falling to last place, four games below .500. Yet, after winning four of his last five, Don has returned to a place he once use to call home…the playoffs. Now back in 2006 and 2008, when Don was shocking the world, he was doing it as a 7-seed. He’s no 7-seed this season, but in both those championship runs, he had to take out the league’s scoring leader. This season, he gets that opportunity again.
So far this year, Don has been able to rely on two great players playing great nearly all the time. They are Alvin Kamara and Tyreek Hill. Lately, Russell Wilson has finally gotten on track and turned that great duo into a great trio (breaking 300 points in five of his last six games).
Yet, for Mr. Vozzola to pull off the round one upset and make a run to the title game, he needs two more stars. David Johnson has failed him as a second overall pick, but once the Cardinals fired their offensive coordinator, the future looked bright, as Johnson had a 406-point game, followed by a 308-point game in weeks 10 and 11. Unfortunately, he’s retreated back to mediocrity, failing to sniff 160 in his last two.
In Indy, T.Y. Hilton has struggled to stay healthy and struggled to play well this season. Then in week 11, he exploded for 430 fantasy points. The following week he delivered another 125 yards. He looked healthy and he looked like a solid WR1 again. Unfortunately though, he’s not practicing this week and is questionable.
Without Johnson and Hilton, it’s tough to see how Don takes down the scoring champ, let alone advance deep in the playoffs.
2018 RECORD Rob M: 7-6-0 Rich C: 6-7-0
2018 SCORING Rob M: 1,525 (#2) Rich C: 1,521 (#3)
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD: Rob M: 4-12 overall, 4-8 in the quarters 0-4 in the semis, 0-0 in the finals On record, Rob is the worst team in the playoffs, with his .250 winning percentage. At first, it didn’t seem so bad. The first four times he reached the postseason, he won in the quarterfinals, including his 2,501-point game against Molly in 2003. However, despite the fact the dude can’t miss the playoffs, he’s won just one playoff game (against Molly in 2013) since 2007. In his last ten playoff games, Rob is just 1-9.
Rich C: 11-9 overall, 6-5 in the quarters, 3-3 in the semis, 2-1 in the finals For too long, Rich was the poor sap who kept blowing it in the playoffs. Between 2008-2012, he lost to a 7-seed three times in the quarterfinals, despite being the heavy favorite. Finally, in 2013, he broke through, beating 7-seed Bob in route to his first championship. Four years late, he did it again.
4-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 13-17 overall | The 4-seed has struggled to escape round one. In fact, they’re almost as bad as the 8-seed (see below), but once they escape that tough first round, they’ve been pretty solid, going 4-1 in the semifinals and 3-1 in the finals. Griff in 2005, Bob in 2010 and myself in 2012, have all won titles as the 4-seed.
5-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: Like I said, the 5-seed has dominated the quarterfinals, but once it escapes, it tends to falter. They are just 4-10 in the semifinals (the 10 loses are the most of any seed in that round) and are just 1-3 in the finals. Matt Neatock in 2007 is the only 5-seed to win it all.
#4 VS #5 IN PLAYOFFS: The 5-seed is a stunning 14-5 in the quarterfinals. They have won five straight. the last 5-seed to lose was Molly losing to me in 2012. If you go back to 2006, the 4-seed has lost 10 of the last 12 meetings in the quarterfinals.
ROB M v RICH C | THIS SEASON These two faced off back in week 11. Masterson was red hot, winning six of eight, while Rich, the league’s highest scoring team was just 4-6. If Caldern lost this one, he would need to sweep his final two to qualify for the playoffs. That week, no one stood out for Rich. With his three highest scorers sitting on his bench (along with two starters on their bye), Calderon got just one 200-point game (214 from Cooks). Meanwhile, Rob got 582 from his twin Panthers and another 282 from Kareem Hunt, as he cruised to a 1,461-1,221 victory.
ROB M vs RICH C | CAREER Surprisingly, Calderon has dominate Masterson in this league, taking 15 of their 22 meetings. After losing his first meeting to Rob in 2003, Rich would win eight of the next nine and 11 of 13. Oddly enough, between 2003 and 2014, Rob lost to Rich every single year (his three wins all came in years they faced off twice). Having said that, Rob has won three of their last four meetings starting in 2015.
ROB M vs RICH C | POSTSEASON These two have faced off just once in the postseason. That was 2013 and that was coming off the only playoff win Rob has had since 2007. The semifinals’ battle proved to be a low scoring affair, as Calderon beat Rob, 1,451 – 1,118, thanks to the points scored by his twin Cowboys, Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray. The following week, Rich would mistakenly bench Romo, costing Tony his only shot at a title. Thanks, Calderon.
ONE-AND-DONE | THE ROB MASTERSON STORY It’s almost not right. It’s certainly not fair to watch Masterson succeed season after season, only to watch it crash and burn. He’s so close to greatness, yet it seems so far away. Who else could twice average over 1,500 points in a season and still not have a scoring title? Who else could produce eight straight winning seasons and still not produce a top seed? Who else could make eight straight trips to the playoffs and still not reach the title game. Hell, forget the title game, just earn one postseason victory.
After a rare 0-2 start to the season, Rob flipped the switch and became the best team in the league behind the league’s best backfield. Yet, just days before the season came to an end, he kissed his All-Robio back, Kareem Hunt, goodbye. Did losing him cost him his chance at a championship?
The talent is still there. Christian McCaffrey is an elite back with a very friendly schedule down the stretch. The issue is Marlon Mack. While he has shown flashes of 400, he is not Hunt and the Colts won’t be cakewalking through a bunch of bad run defenses.
At wideout, he does have elite talent with Robert Woods, but Rob needs Julian Edelman to step up and compete with the elites. 200-point fantasy games are fine by wideouts (and Edelman has plenty of those), but 300 is needed to keep Rob’s title hopes alive.
Of course, the X-factor in all this is Cam Newton. We’ve seen him lead a fantasy team to a title before and he’s put up some nice points this season, but he has also struggled lately. He has thrown an interception in four straight games, including four just in his last game, and now he is dealing with a shoulder injury. He could end up missing this week’s game. Without Newton, Rob’s won’t be able to pull off any kind of run.
BAD VEGAN, BUT WORST COACH | THE RICH CALDERON STORY Currently, Calderon has the league’s second worst coaching rating. If you don’t know what that is, it just means CBS determines if you made the right decision on who to start and who to bench. For Rich, no owner has to make as many decisions as he has to this postseason, simply because no team is deeper at every spot.
At quarterback, is it Andrew Luck or Matt Ryan? Both are rated among the top-seven. Luck is hotter, until this past week, but Ryan has arguable the better matchup (Luck vs Texans, Ryan vs Packers).
What about running back? He has Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb and Mark Ingram. Now, Ingram has certainly played his way out of the discussion with his recent stats, while Mixon is hurt (foot). Chubb is probably the must-start, as he’s probably good for 200 on a bad day. Of course, what about Jaylen Samuels? With James Conner out, the Steelers backfield belongs to him and good things have come out of the Steelers backfield this year.
Of course, he could go three wide. Hopkins and Thielen are the must start guys, although over the last three weeks, they have combined to break 200 just once. Then there is Cooks, who has broken 200 three times in his last four games.
What about defense? Calderon certainly can appreciate the points the right defense or kicker can provide. He’s got the Patriots facing the Fins and the Redskins taking on the Giants. The latter has been better, but the Patriots have improved as the year has gone on.
Rich will need to make good decisions this week if he’s going to take down the second highest scoring team in the league. If he advances, he’s going to need to keep making good decisions. I hate decisions. I’ve lost two titles making lineup changes in the playoffs. Calderon nearly cost himself a 2012 title by making wholesale changes in the championship game.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS:
Mr. Hall, led by Patrick Mahomes and his no-name rushing attack, will finally get his first league championship, beating Calderon in the title game, 1,748 – 1,550. It will be only the second time in league history both title game teams will break 1,500. Colby will end up finishing second all-time in points score.
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