It’s been a long while since I’ve done a mock draft. I’ve avoided them because I didn’t want to give away my secrets. Of course, having missed the playoffs three out of the last four years, perhaps my secrets aren’t worth stealing anymore. Shit, this is getting long. I hope Masterson hasn’t stopped reading.

#1 Marc Pattini – Todd Gurley, RB – STL Coming off a career year where he averaged 300 points per game, then proceeded to produce back-to-back 600-point games in the playoffs, Gurley seems like an obvious choice for the top pick. He’s going to get a ton of touches in a high-powered offense. However, before Marc starts to look for a spot to put his championship mug, let me offer up two warnings. First, according to the people in the know, Gurley and the Rams will face the toughest SOS against the run in 2018. Second, 34 backs have produced 2,000 total yards in a season since 1999. On average, the following year, they deliver 603 less yards.

#2 Don Vozzola – Saquon Barkley, RB – NYG Two years ago Don struck magic when he picked a rookie back with the first overall pick. Elliot dominated in 2016 and was the primary reason Don has reached the playoffs once in the last five years. I suspect he’ll try to rediscover that old magic with the next generation star back. Now Barkley is not Elliot, who was a complete back. Barkley can be hit or miss, much like Chris Johnson use to be, piling up a bunch of zero yard gains until he finally hits a 50-yarder. I also worry about his offensive line. Yes, the Giants line is better, but are they good? Having said that, volume matters and Barkley should be a lock for 300-350 touches in his first season in Jersey.

#3 Robio Murray – David Johnson, RB – ARI Before there was 2017 Todd Gurley, there was 2016 David Johnson. The man who led Griff to his 2015 title and then earned a MVP award his sophomore season. Yes, he’s coming off an injury, but I’m not sweating it. A wrist injury is not a ACL injury. Sure, I’m a little concerned about the coaching change (Mike McCoy is calling the plays now) and Carson Palmer is no longer the quarterback, but Johnson should again be the workhorse and will challenge for a first-team All-Robio award.

#4 Colby Hall – Antonio Brown, WR – PIT Perhaps Colby will be disappointed he will have just missed out on one of the top three backs, but he shouldn’t. They haven’t done what Brown has done. Brown has missed just three games since 2009 and has produced over 1,500 total yards for five straight seasons, scoring double-digit touchdowns three times. Big Ben (or his backup) has targeted Brown, on average, 171 times per season. He’s a guarantee All-Robio wideout, having delivered three straight first-team awards to Eric.

#5 Rich Burrier – Leonard Fournette, RB – JAC Burrier has taken a running back 12 of his 16 career first-round picks and I suspect that number will increase to 13. Assuming Calderon keeps DeAndre Hopkins in the fourth, Fournette is a better version of Melvin Gordon. He averaged only 3.9 yards per carry, but got over 300 touches for over 1,300 yards and 10 scores. Barring injury, I suspect all those numbers to get a slight bump up. I’m not putting Fournette as a All-Robio guy, but he’s not too far off.

#6 Griff Coomer – Dalvin Cook, RB – MIN Obviously, there is nothing worse than risking a first-round pick on a guy coming off an ACL injury. It’s been proven time and again that no one comes back the next season at 100%. However, Cook is young, the injury was early last season and if he’s even 90%, he’s still better than most. Obviously, with a new coordinator calling the plays, we don’t know how they’ll use Cook at the goal line, especially with Murray looking like a viable option as a handcuff, but let’s face it. Cook is a former Florida State Seminoles and guess who just loves him some Noles?

#7 Rob Masterson – Odell Beckham, WR – NYG Masterson has proven that he’s not locked in on a running back in round one. In fact, he has taken a wide receiver in the first six times. However, those picks haven’t really been the best. In 2007, Marvin Harrison tore his ACL. The following year, Tom Brady got hurt and Randy Moss finished as the 12th best wideout. In 2010, it was Reggie Wayne, who was solid, finishing 7th best. The next season it was Roddy White with the second overall pick. He finished ranked 13th. In 2017, Dez Bryant bombed, finished 29th, while last year, A.J. Green finished 7th. So that’s six wide receivers taking in round one and none earned an All-Robio award.

Yet, I have Rob taking Beckham in this draft. Fact is, it’s a contract year, there will be a better offensive line in New York, plus Barkley will make defense be more honest, so yeah, it’s not wrong to expect a big year from Beckham.

#8 Rich Calderon -Devonta Freeman, RB – ATL Thanks to a late-season injury last year, some of the shine has worn off of Freeman, but if he didn’t get hurt last year, he would have finished his third-straight season with 1,000 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving and double-digit touchdowns.

#9 Jeff Greenblatt – Julio Jones, WR – ATL With both Gordon and Drake being kept, Jeff doesn’t need to reach for a running back. Obviously, Aaron Rodgers is tempting, but Julio is due for a bounce back year and when I say bounce back, let’s not forget he still earned an All-Robio award last year.

#10 Eric Vozzola – Joe Mixon, RB – CIN I honestly have no clue what Eric will do or even should do. There’s McCoy, but he might be in jail by midseason (or he could have 1,000 total yards as the only option in Buffalo). Christian McCaffrey looks like a solid option, especially in the passing game, but now he’s got C.J. Anderson with him in the backfield. Why not Julio Jones? For now, let’s go Mixon. The Bengals are saying all the right things and with one less back in the backfield from last year, the second-year back has all the makings of a feature back. Of course, Eric has heard that before and it has burned him. Fuck it, Eric drafts Patriots’ kicker, Gostowski in the first.

#11 Bob Castrone  – Ezekiel Elliot, RB – DAL (KEEPER) Late season trades over the last two years have tended to help the person Bob traded to more than it helped Bob, but this season, that won’t be the case. Don will certainly be happy with Kamara, but Bob arguable got a 1,800-yard, 15 touchdown back in the back of the first-round. With Elliot and Watson already on this team, I’m curious to see what Bob does in round two. Does he go get an elite wide receiver (Adams)? Does he roll the dice and go get the next great back (Guice) or how about the cream of the crop at tight end (Gronk)?

#12 Matt Neatock – Le’Veon Bell, RB – PIT (KEEPER) Bell is the no-brainer of all no-brainers, even with his holdout potential. He’s a lock for All-Robio, as long as he stays upright. The question is, what does Neatock do next? With Wentz in his back pocket, he’s not going to waste the pick on Aaron Rodgers. He doesn’t need Gronk if he’s keeping Ertz. Historically, he has gone back-to-back running backs (seven times), although he has gone RB/WR or WR/RB the last four years. My pick for him to start the second? Adams. Why mess with a good thing. This gives Matt four starters from last year’s championship squad.