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2017 Semifinals Predictions

  • Writer: Rob Murray
    Rob Murray
  • Dec 13, 2017
  • 6 min read

You know, lost in the hoopla that was Eric’s thrilling last second win and Jeff’s stunning come from behind victory, is the simple fact that the two best teams advanced as expected. Bob and Matt are each just one win away from reliving the magic of that was the 2014 championship game.

Do either Eric or Jeff have the ability to knock them off? Let’s see…

#1 Dick McBallFarts vs #6 BROWN ‘N SERVIN IT

2017 RECORD BOB: 13-1 ERIC: 7-7

2017 SCORING BOB: 1,341 ppg ERIC: 1,375 ppg

BREAKDOWN: Bob leads, 8-6

CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD BOB: 19-8 overall, 11-2 in quarters, 4-6 in semis, 4-0 in finals ERIC: 2-6 overall, 1-5 in quarters, 1-0 in semis, 0-1 in finals

1-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 27-14 (4 titles, 4 runner ups) 6-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 10-17 (0 titles, 2 runner ups)

BOB/ERIC THIS SEASON These two faced off in week ten, smack in the middle of Eric’s four-game losing streak. Despite only getting six points from his RB2 spot (Prosise), Bob easily handled Vozzola, 1,517-1,195. In that contest, he rode Cam Newton’s game of the year (598 points) and he still had Kamara, who delivered 336 points. Crabtree was on a bye, but Marqise Lee filled in nicely with 190.

Eric had only two players hit 200, as he rode a three-receiver set. Sterling Shepard had a season high 284, while Fitzgerald contributed 226 points. However, Brees failed to hit 200 (finished with 194), Jordan Howard had just 108, while Doyle delivered 18 total points. Also, that was the week Antonio Brown was held in check, as he scored just 94 fantasy points against a bad Colts D.

BOB/ERIC HISTORY These two started pretty evenly. Eric beat Bob in their first meeting back in 2003 and after nine seasons, the series was tied 4-4. However, Bob swept the next four (2012-2015) and has won five of the last six to lead the all-time series, 9-5.

BOB/ERIC PLAYOFF HISTORY These two have never faced off in the playoffs. As Bob has made going to the postseason his birthright, Eric has struggled to A) get there in his early years and B) win once he got there.

In fact, this is just the second time in Eric’s long career he has made it to the semis. That was back in 2012 and he won that one, so technically, he’s undefeated in the semifinals.

Of course, while Bob has been phenomenal in the quarters (11-2) and perfect in the finals (4-0), if you’re going to get him, you need to get him in the semifinals. He’s just 4-6 in the second week of the playoffs, having lost in this round the previous two seasons.

SEMIFINALS PREDICTIONS As of Wednesday, Bob was back as the favorite, but only slightly as a eight-point favorite in a projected high scoring game. Both teams flirting with some lineup changes. Bob benched C.J. Anderson and inserts Marques Goodwin, who seems to be enjoying his new quarterback (410 fantasy points in his last two). Meanwhile, Eric brings back Jordan Howard, coming off a big week.

All season long, Eric has been a big “hit then miss” team, which explains why he leads Bob in total points, but loses to him in breakdown. It’s also a good reason to pick the upset here, but can I pull the trigger in the predictions?

Both teams have elite Ds and both have elite wide receivers, although Brown’s elite is much more elite than Julio’s status right now. Both should be loving their matchups and both should easily be the leading scorer among the skilled players.

CBS says the quarterbacks are even, but I can’t agree. While Cam Newton can’t pass much anymore, he’s been running up the stats with his legs and he’ll find some open lanes against a weak Packers D. Meanwhile, Brees is no longer a guarantee 300-point guy. In fact, he’s done it just once since week four. Look for the Saints to pound the ball against the Jets.

This gives Mark Ingram (Bob) the edge over Jordan Howard (Eric), despite the matchups. Ingram should be able to get a cool 200 points this week, while I expect Howard to do what he’s done all year. Whenever he’s had a big game, he’s always followed it up with a shit. 192 in week one, 14 in week two. 422 in week three, 186 in week four. 352 in week six, 130 in week seven. 242 in week eight, 108 in week ten. 310 in week 11, 38 in week 12. Last week, he had 433 points. On average, after Howard scores 200+ in a game, he scores just 95 points per game.

WORTHLESS PREDICTION: Bob over Eric, 1,398-1,284

#2 Oh It’s Happening Sweetheart vs #5 1/4 LBRS

2017 RECORD Matt: 10-4 Jeff: 7-7

2017 SCORING Matt: 1,553 ppg Jeff: 1,251 ppg

BREAKDOWN: Matt leads 10-4

CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD Matt: 10-6 overall, 5-4 in quarters, 3-1 in semis, 2-1 in finals Jeff: 3-4 overall, 2-3 in quarters, 1-0 in semis, 0-1 in finals

2-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 21-14 (5 titles) 5-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 20-17 (1 title, 3 runner ups)

MATT/JEFF THIS SEASON These two faced off back in week six and even though Jeff had a good week, he still couldn’t touch Neatock, who pulled out a 1,772-1,360 victory. Matt rode his big three (Wetz, Gurley, Bell), who combined for a clean 1,000 points, led by Bell’s 442. Matt even got at least 140 from every other player that week.

Meanwhile, Jameis Winston crushed Jeff’s dream of an upset. He was knocked out of his game against the Titans after just ten throws and 40 fantasy points. That pretty much erased the 420 scored by Melvin Gordon and the pair of 200+ point games produced by Thomas and Brate.

MATT/JEFF HISTORY Back in 2003, when both Jeff and Matt entered the league, Jeff beat Matt in week ten. However, when Jeff came back as a solo artist in 2009, Neatock dominated, winning a stunning eight straight, until week 13 of the 2015 season, when Jeff finally beat Matt again. Over the last two seasons, they’ve split and Matt now holds a 9-3 advantage in their career series.

MATT/JEFF PLAYOFF HISTORY Like Bob and Eric, this will be the first playoff meeting between these two. Fact is, Jeff has missed the show a lot and Matt has failed to qualify his fair share of postseasons.

Like Eric, prior to this season, Jeff had advanced to the semis just once (last year) and he won it, so he too is undefeated in the semifinals (1-0). However, Matt has been one of the more successful semifinals teams. He’s 3-1 in the playoffs second weekend, losing in the semis for the first time just two years ago against Griff.

SEMIFINALS PREDICTIONS Jeff has worked wonders this year, turning a average team at best into a team that’s one game from the championship game, but in reality, it will all end here. Looking over the rosters, I just don’t see how he pulls off the upset.

If he does, he’s going to need monster games from his backs. Melvin Gordon can certainly deliver 300 and 400 points games and Drake is facing the league’s worst run defense, but I’m still not sure that’s going to be enough.

Matt will probably be rolling with Nick Foles this weekend and while he is no Carson Wentz, the Eagles are facing the Giants DST that gave up weeks ago. Meanwhile, Jeff has Winston. To show his lack of confidence in his quarterback, he is also starting the defense (Falcons) that will face Winston this week.

Three things need to happen for Jeff to pull off this upset. First, he needs the NY Giants, motivated against the hated Philly Eagles, to show up and although won’t win it, will lose like 17-10, killing the stats of Foles, Jeffery and Ertz.

Second, Bell needs to get hamstrung by the Patriots. Yes, the sam Pats who got rolled by Drake on Monday night. The Patriots have been known to take the best player on one team and shut him down, making you beat them with someone else. I don’t think it will happen, but Jeff needs it to happen.

Third, the Seahawks, motivated by their ass beating by the Jaguars, come to play at home against the Rams and do something no one else has done; shut down their offense and shut down Gurley.

Of course, I think none of this will happen.

WORTHLESS PREDICTION: Matt over Jeff, 1,782-1,240

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