Welcome to the 2017 Playoff Predictions. Before you claim that the words written on this post are as meaningless as a girl in Jeff’s bedroom, don’t forget, I picked all four quarterfinals matchups correctly last year. Of course, I picked me beating Calderon for the championship and that didn’t happen, so on with the fun…
This season, we have what I would call a pair of heavy favorites, the lossless wonder we call Bob Castrone, who is making his 12th straight playoff appearance and is looking to become the first person in league history to earn five championships. Matt Neatock is the points king and probably is the real favorite to win it all. He’s looking for a third career title in this league and certainly looking for revenge against Bob for that devastating loss in the 2014 title game.
Lost among those two, we have Calderon. Have you forgot that Rich is the defending champ, looking to become just the third person to earn back-to-back titles? Yeah, I kinda forgot, too.
In the 4-5-6 spots, we have Rob, Jeff Eric. Not only do all three have one-syllable first names, but those three have combined to be in this league for 41 seasons and have never won a championship. Those three are bottom three in postseason history, going a combined 8-21.
Deeper, we have Griff and Burrier. Both have championships. Burrier got his back in 2003 and Griff has two (2005, 2015), both neither is top-eight in scoring and both are going to need some miracle points to pull off some upsets.
Now…let’s get to it.
2016 RECORD BOB: 12-1 BURRIER: 6-7
2016 SCORING BOB: 1st BURRIER: 11th
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD BOB: 18-8 overall, 10-2 in quarters, 4-6 in semis, 4-0 in finals | Average PPG: 1,474 RICH B: 6-10 overall, 3-8 in quarters, 2-1 in semis, 1-1 in finals | Average PPG: 1,271
1-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 26-14 (4 titles, 4 runner ups) 8-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 5-19 (Never reached title game) 1 vs 8 IN QUARTERS: The #1 seed leads the series, 14-5 #1 seed has won four straight against the 8-seed in the quarterfinals. Of course the last #8 to win a playoff game was Burrier, when he beat 1-seed Griff back in 2012.
BOB/RICH B THIS SEASON Back in week four, Bob escaped with a slim 28-point win over Burrier, 1,276-1,248. That lineup Bob trotted out is not the same lineup Rich will face in the quarterfinals. Back then, Bob got 496 from Deshaun Watson, but that was the week he lost both Cook (178) and Carson (132). He also started Chris Hogan (180) and Zach Miller (90), who both haven’t started in weeks due to injury.
That week, Burrier got a solid 348 from Dak Prescott and 216 from Devonta Freeman, but that second wide receiver spot was still a disaster, as Golladay was shutout.
BOB/RICH B HISTORY Bob leads the all-time series, 13-7, having dominated over the last half decade, winning eight of the last ten games, dating back to the 2011 postseason. Burrier actually owned Bob, taking four of the first five, but has dropped 12 of the last 15.
BOB/RICH B PLAYOFF HISTORY These two have faced off twice before in the postseason, including a title game. Back in 2011, these two were an unlikely title game matchup. Burrier was 3-seed, having taken down #6 Matt and then #8 Don, while 7-seed Bob upset Masterson by just two points in the quarters, then escaped #5 Colby by only 21 points in the semis. Yet, despite being the higher seed, Rich was the dog and it showed, as Bob won easily, 1,590-1,283.
Four years later, Bob dominated the regular season earning the 1-seed, while Burrier needed a week thirteen win to end a six-game losing streak and make the playoffs as the 8-seed. It was no contest, as Bob crushed Rich, 2,002-1,124.
QUARTERFINALS PREDICTIONS Burrier has no chance, right? We’ll overlook the fact that Rich is just 11th in scoring, but so many of what I would deem his best players are on his bench. Some because of foul play (Dak), some because suspension (Gronk) and some because of matchup/coaching decisions (Freeman and Ajayi).
Meanwhile, Bob gets Crabtree back, which is a nice bonus, although both Cam Newton and Mark Ingram are dealing with nagging injuries. Also, this week, Bob picked up C.J. Anderson, who I dumped to pick up better keeper options for next year. He’s been hit-or-really miss lately, depending on his touches. This past week, he got 15 carries and put up 200 fantasy points. He’s also put up less than 50 three times since midseason, as Charles and Booker have eaten into his carries.
In all honesty, this one shouldn’t even be close. Bob will approach 1,500, as Burrier will struggle to hit 1,000.
WORTHLESS PREDICTION: Bob over Burrier, 1,478-1002
2017 RECORD Matt: 9-4 Griff: 6-7
2017 SCORING Matt: 1st (1,509 ppg) Burrier: 9th (1,245 ppg)
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD Matt: 9-6 overall, 4-4 in quarters, 3-1 in semis, 2-1 in finals | Average PPG: 1,462 Griff: 20-12 overall, 10-4 in quarters, 8-2 in semis, 2-6 in finals | Average PPG: 1,385
2-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 20-14 (5 titles) 7-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 18-16 (3 titles, 1 runner up) 2 vs 7 IN QUARTERS: The #7 seed leads the series, 10-9. The #2 seed has won three of last four.
MATT/GRIFF THIS SEASON These two faced off in one of the better matchups in week seven. Back then, Griff was 2-4 and managed to put together his best game of the year, but it wasn’t good enough against 5-1 and scoring leader, Neatock. Matt won it a high scoring affair, 1,919-1,508.
Matt rode his stars; Wentz, Gurley and Bell, who combined for over 1,200 points, while both Ertz and the newly acquired Seahawks defense added 200+ apiece. Griff managed to have six players score at least 160, but Jared Goff topped out at 264. When your highest scoring player would be someone else’s fourth highest scoring player, it’s tough to win games.
MATT/GRIFF HISTORY Neatock leads the series, 9-5, having ended a two-game slide this season. Matt got off to a hot start in this series, winning the first three and five of six, but Griff has managed even it out since 2010, as they have split, 4-4.
MATT/GRIFF PLAYOFF HISTORY These two have faced off twice in the postseason, both in the deep end. 1-seed Matt won his second career title with arguable his greatest squad by defeating 3-seed Griff in the finals, 1,608-1,384. However, in 2015 Griff got his payback. In the semifinals, 2-seed Griff crushed #5 Matt, 1,962-1,335, in route to his second career title.
QUARTERFINALS PREDICTIONS Considering how much Matt has dominated everyone in points this season, it’s a bit surprising he is only a 53% favorite to win, according to CBS. The reason being…matchups. If you’re going to take down Matt, the quarters are the best time to do it. His four Eagles that include Wentz, Jeffery, Ertz and Elliot, take on the Rams. The Rams defense in fantasy are third against the quarterback, 7th against wide receivers, sixth against tight ends and third against kickers. On top of that, both of Matt’s star running backs face top-10 run defenses. Gurley fill face the Eagles, who are first against the runs and Bell is at home against the Ravens, who are 10th. He does have Adams and he’s just facing the Browns defense. Um, the Browns D is ninth against wide receivers in fantasy. Again, this is a lot to overcome, even for a great team.
But is Griff the team to take advantage of it? I mean, Matt is 11-2 against Griff in breakdown. I would have been much more comfortable picking an upset if it was Colby or even myself. At least we’re top-six in scoring.
At least, Griff has favorable matchups with Rivers, Evans and Perine. He really needs to get some points from the Redskins back. He also needs a huge game from the Bills DST against the Colts. When you’re the dog, you need your little points from the little guys; tight ends, kickers and defenses. Sadly, I don’t see it happening.
WORTHLESS PREDICTION: Matt over Griff, 1,342-1,232
2017 RECORD CALDERON: 8-5 ERIC: 6-7
2017 SCORING CALDERON: 7th (1,259) ERIC: 2nd (1,371)
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD RICH C: 11-8 overall, 6-4 in quarters, 3-3 in semis, 2-1 in finals | Average PPG: 1,358 ERIC: 2-6 overall, 1-5 in quarters, 1-0 in semis, 0-1 in finals | Average PPG: 1,281
3-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 20-17 (2 titles, 3 runner ups) 6-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 9-17 (0 titles, 2 runner ups) 3 vs 6 IN QUARTERS: The #1 seed leads the series, 11-8. The #6 Seed has won the past two seasons.
RICH C/ERIC THIS SEASON Back in week nine, Calderon escaped with a low scoring 17-point victory, 1,156-1,139. Rich overcame a goose egg from his tight end, thanks to four 200-point efforts by Ryan (278), Hopkins (232), Baldwin (276) and injury replacement, Ivory (208).
With Jordan Howard on a bye, Eric only managed to get 62 points from Chris Thompson. He also got -10 from his kicker, which was too much for Brees (288) and Lynch (246) to overcome.
RICH C/ERIC HISTORY Calderon leads the all-time series, 11-7. Eric dominated early, taking four of their first six, but a sweep in 2008 changed the tide. Calderon would win four straight and six of the next seven between 2008-2013.
RICH C/ERIC PLAYOFF HISTORY This is the second straight year these two are facing off in the quarterfinals and last year was the first time they’ve ever meet in the postseason. Of course, last year Calderon was the far superior team. He was the 2-seed and first in scoring. The game wasn’t close, as Calderon crushed Eric, 1,878-1,144, behind that record setting performance by Le’Veon Bell.
QUARTERFINALS PREDICTIONS: This year, Calderon doesn’t have Bell and both Murray and Ryan are not the same players. Instead, he relies on All-Robio receivers like Hopkins (1st) and Thielen (3rd), rookie Fournette and good decisions are defense. The only truly bad matchup this week is Fournette facing the Seahawks, but you know Jacksonville is going to run him 30 times if they can.
Eric also has good matchups, although Brown faces the Ravens, who are third against the pass. Of course, this is Brown and no one shuts down Brown. Eric will need a money game from Brees. No more of this handing it off 40 times. Also, I love the balls to go big on Gio. Howard has struggled lately, as teams have stacked the line. If Mixon is out, Bernard is a must start, even against a decent Bears front.
WORTHLESS PREDICTION: Eric over Rich C, 1,430-1,388
2017 RECORD Rob M: 7-6 Burrier: 7-6
2017 SCORING Rob M: 3rd (1,356 ppg) Jeff: 8th (1,246 ppg)
CAREER PLAYOFF RECORD Rob M: 4-11 overall, 4-7 in quarters, 0-4 in semis, 0-0 in finals | Average PPG: 1,377 Jeff: 2-4 overall, 1-3 in quarters, 1-0 in semis, 0-1 in finals | Average PPG: 1,167
4-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 13-16 (3 titles, 1 runner up) 5-SEED IN PLAYOFFS: 19-17 (1 title, 3 runner ups) 4 vs 5 IN QUARTERS: The #5 seed has dominated, winning 14 of 19 games. In fact, the #5 seed has won four straight.
ROB M/JEFF THIS SEASON Just three weeks ago, Jeff laid it on strong, beating Masterson, 1,604-1,402. It was a extremely balanced effort, as six players scored at least 188, but no one topped 300, including surprises like Keenum (286) and Marvin Jones (230). For Rob, he went big at quarterback, as Brady scored 396, but no one else sniffed 200.
ROB M/JEFF HISTORY Rob has owned Jeff over the years. In fact, this season was only the third time Greenblatt has beaten his old roommate as a solo artist. Rob leads the series, 8-3 and had won three straight until this years defeat.
ROB M/JEFF PLAYOFF HISTORY Because of both of these guys limited playoff experience, they have not faced off in the postseason.
QUARTERFINALS PREDICTIONS: Masterson remains the only veteran team that has not reached the finals at least once. It certainly hasn’t helped he has struggled to escape the quarterfinals over the last decade. In fact, Rob has won one playoff game since 2007. This does not look like a good year to win a second.
Rob is the heavy underdog. He’s lost five of six and six of eight heading into the playoffs. His star player (Hunt) won’t turn on, his star quarterback is in a stadium he has struggled in and he could be down two stars. Mixon had a concussion and hasn’t practiced this week and Rob didn’t have the cash to go get his handcuff. Jimmy Graham is also hurt and missing practice, but he often doesn’t practice. Rob does have favorable matchups across the board, but not sure he has the players to take advantage of it.
Jeff’s only big move was benching Miller for Drake, but overall he’s got the goods. He has three players in the Detroit/Tampa game, which should be a high scoring affair and neither of his running backs will face a top-1o run defense.
Masterson may be the higher seed, but if he wins this one, it would be a big upset.
WORTHLESS PREDICTION: Jeff over Rob M, 1,242-998
OVERALL PREDICTIONS
Let’s be honest, no one loves going chalk on the predictions, but I gotta go with the gut. Never bet against Bob. QUARTERFINALSSEMIFINALSFINALS #1 BOB CASTRONE OVER #8 RICHARD BURRIER #2 MAT NEATOCK OVER #7 GRIFF COOMER #6 ERIC VOZZOLA OVER #3 RICH CALDERON #5 JEFF GREENBLATT OVER #4 ROB MASTERSON#1 BOB CASTRONE OVER #6 ERIC VOZZOLA #2 MATT NEATOCK OVER #5 JEFF GREENBLATT#1 BOB CASTRONE OVER #2 MATT NEATOCK
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