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Rob Murray

2016 Title Game Predictions


Let’s be honest, did you ever expect to see Jeff’s name in any kind of championship game preview in football? It’s weird, right? It has the feel of a high school team letting the kid with down syndrome score the game’s final, unchallenged, touchdown. Yet, he earned it. He earned it bigly. As did Rich Calderon, who sat just behind Jeff in the standings all season long, but just ahead of him in scoring.

First, a couple of fun facts…Jeff is trying to become the first person in league history to win both a Robioland fantasy baseball title and football title in the same calendar year.

Second, as I said earlier I the week, it’s official the first time ever, the title game will feature the top two teams in the standings and the top two scoring teams. Enjoy it, folks. We won’t see that often.

RECORDS

Jeff: 13-2 (finished 1st in the standings) Colby: 11-4 (finished 2nd in the standings)

POINTS

Jeff: 22,213 | 1,481 PPG (finished 2nd in points in the regular season) Rich C: 23,870 | 1,591 PPG (finished 1st in points in the regular season)

BREAKDOWN

Jeff: 117-48-0 Rich C: 126-39-0 (Calderon leads Jeff straight up, 8-7)

JEFF’S 2016 SEASON


His receivers (Snead, Jackson) were average at best and his quarterback (Brees) was old. Shady McCoy was always on the wrong side of healthy and between Gordon and Hill, he didn’t have a true starting running back at RB2. That was my preseason thought process.

Yet, Brees was fantastic, McCoy pretty much stayed healthy and Melvin Gordon proved to be the sleeper of the year, after Danny Woodhead was knocked out for the season. Behind these three players, Jeff bitched slapped the preseason predictions and the preseason favorite, Griff Coomer, 1,902-1,253. The following week against Bob Castrone, Jeff proved it was no fluke, taking him down 1,510-906. Two weeks in and Bob had faced the top two teams in the preseason rankings and walked away with easy wins. That would set the tone for the year.

Putting up just four subpar games all season, Jeff rolled through the league, breaking 1,500 seven times during the year. He was never truly challenged for the top spot once Masterson dropped from 4-0 to 4-2. Jeff finishing with a 11-2 record, second in scoring behind Calderon.

FUN FACT: Jeff is entering the championship game starting six players that he drafted, becoming only the second person to do so. Matt’s 20009 won it all starting eight players he drafted. The kicker was the only exception.

FUN FACT #2: DeSean Jackson is looking to become only the third QB/RB/WR to win three championships in Robioland. Adrian Peterson and Terrell Owens are the other two. Jackson won it all with Matt in 2009 and Bob last year. He’s looking to become the first non-kicker to win it back-to-back years.

RICH C’S 2016 SEASON


Heading into the season, the pieces were there for Rich to rebound from a pair of subpar seasons. Le’Veon Bell was a stud once he returned from his suspension (and Rich smartly grabbed DeAngelo Williams), A.J. Green was an elite wide receiver and Jordan Reed, if healthy, was arguable the best tight end in football.

Sure, quarterback (Bortles) was going to be an issue, Doug Baldwin still had plenty to prove at the WR2 spot and no one knew what to expect from DeMarco Murray at RB2. Did I say RB2? Yeah, about that.

Behind one of the most dominating backfields in Robioland history, Calderon put forth some of the best performances of the season. He scored 2,030 in week one and 2,079 in week four. Even when he occasionally delivered a dud, like the 946 in a week three loss to Don, it just felt like a fluke.

Before we even hit the halfway mark at the season, I placed Calderon at the top of my rankings and he never budged. Yes, he failed to produce any long runs, always winning two in a row, before losing the third, all season long until weeks 10-13, when he finally won three straight. Still, he cruised to a 9-4 record and was never really challenged for the scoring crown (the second of his career).

Fun fact: Rich produced his sixth career nine-win season. The only other people do to that are Griff and I and we’ve been in the league four more years than Rich.

JEFF VS RICH C…THIS SEASON

Yeah, remember how Jeff crushed my semifinals soul with Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy? Sure you do. Well, that’s how Jeff manhandled Calderon back in week six. Behind Brees’s 510 and McCoy’s 464, Jeff cruised to a 1,728-1,250 victory. Calderon only managed to “only” get 236 from Le’Veon Bell, while DeMarco Murray was held to under 200 (he hit 190). That happened just twice all season long. Of course, that team still featured Bortler (162) and A.J. Green (176).

WEEK SIX RESULTS JEFFRICH C Player:Team:Source:Points:Player:Team:Source:Points: Drew BreesSaintsRd 5 Keeper510Blake BortlesJaguarsTrade162 LeSean McCoyBillsRound 1464Le'Veon BellSteelersRd 2 Keeper236 Melvin GordonChargersRound 3188DeMarco MurrayTitansRound 3190 DeSean JacksonRedskinsRound 4110A.J. GreenBengalsRound 1176 Willie SneadSaintsRound 694Kelvin BenjaminPanthersRd 11 Keeper172 Delanie WalkerTitansRd 9 Keeper42Charles ClayBillsFree Agent104 Steven GostkowskiPatriotsRound 12110Brian McManusBroncosFree Agent60 ArizonaCardinalsRound 8210BuffaloBillsFree Agent150

JEFF VS RICH C’s…2016 SCHEDULE WeeksJEFF GREENBLATTRICH CALDERON Week 1Griff Coomer1,902 - 1,253WonRich Calderon2,030 - 1,008Won Week 2Bob Castrone1,510 - 906 WonColby Hall1,730 - 1,333Won Week 3Eric Vozzola1,591 - 1,325WonDon Vozzola946 - 1,171Lost Week 4Rob Masterson1,118 - 1,163LostMatt Neatock2,079 - 1,474Won Week 5Richard Burrier1,128 - 1,052WonGriff Coomer1,383 - 1,179Won Week 6Rich Calderon1,728 - 1,250WonJeff Greenblatt1,250 - 1,728Lost Week 7Molly Coomer1,495 - 1,171WonEric Vozzola1,483 - 1,313Won Week 8Colby Hall1,324 - 1,282WonRobio Murray1,642 - 1,071Won Week 9Don Vozzola1,696 - 1,140WonRob Masterson1,480 - 1,502 Lost Week 10Matt Neatock1,659 - 1,655WonBob Castrone1,700 - 1,222Won Week 11Robio Murray1,070 - 1,587LostMolly Coomer1,363 - 1,261Won Week 12Griff Coomer1,808 - 1,417WonRichard Burrier1,663 - 1,170Won Week 13Bob Castrone1,463 - 1,047WonColby Hall1,172 - 1,281Lost Quarterfinals#8 Richard Burrier905 - 840Won#7 Eric Vozzola1,878 - 1,144Won Semifinals#6 Robio Murray1,816 - 1,496Won#5 Bob Castrone1,588 - 1,146Won

JEFF vs RICH C…A BRIEF HISTORY

Jeff and Calderon have only faced off 11 times. Back in 2003, the first year in this league for both of them, they faced off twice and split the difference. Rich beat Jeff in week two. It was his only victory in the season’s first six weeks. Later in week thirteen, Jeff took down a hot Calderon, nearly ending his playoff teams.

Because Jeff shared the glory with Colby as a member of the Pounders for the next four years, these two didn’t face off again until 2009. Calderon would dominate the series first few games, taking down Jeff in four of their first five meetings, including three straight from 2009-2011.

Jeff finally got back on track, with a 73-point victory in 2012 and since then, these two have been dead even, splitting their last six games.

JEFF vs RICH C…A PLAYOFF HISTORY

The 2009 season was a big season in Robioland, as it marked the return of solo Greenblatt. With David Hightower gone, the Quarter Pounders were broken up. Jeff jumped back into solo squad mode, storming out of the gate, winning his first four, behind Tom Brady and Cedric Benson. Through seven weeks he was leading his division at 7-1. Yet, he slipped at the end, dropping four of his last six, including the final two games of the regular season. He finished 8-5, but surrendered the division title to Griff, losing the total points tiebreaker by only 153 points.

Calderon took the opposite approach. He began the year dropping four of his first five. Slowly but surely though, Calderon turned his ship around, three times winning back-to-back games (that seems to be his thing).  He finished the year 7-6, earning the 5-seed.

In the quarterfinals, the hot team managed to escape with a tight victory over a cold Jeff. The final score: 1,293 – 1,233.

JEFF vs RICH C…EVERY SINGLE GAME IN TABLE-FORM. YearMatch UpYearMatch Up YearMatch Up Career Record - Rich C leads series, 7-4 | Post-Season - Rich C leads the series, 1-0 | Current Streak: Jeff has won one in a row. 2003WEEK TWO Rich C beat Jeff, 1467 - 1281 WEEK THIRTEEN Jeff beat Rich C, 1135 - 1096 2004No Game2005No Game 2006No Game2007No Game2008No Game 2009QUARTERFINALS Rich C beat Jeff, 1293 - 12332010WEEK SIX Rich C beat Jeff, 1675 - 11342011WEEK FOUR Rich C beat Jeff, 1820 - 917 2012WEEK THREE Jeff beat Rich C, 1296 - 12232013WEEK NINE Rich C beat Jeff, 1195 - 1117 2014WEEK ONE Rich C beat Jeff, 1697 - 1232 WEEK TWELVE Jeff beat Rich C, 1730 - 1313 2015WEEK ELEVEN Rich C beat Jeff, 1239 - 11562016WEEK SIX Jeff beat Rich C, 1728 - 1250

THE GAME

Okay, enough of the history, let’s talk about the final game of the 2016 season.

CURRENT LINEUPS PositionNO RESPECT (JEFF)THE DICK-TATERS (RICH C) QuarterbackDrew Breesvs Buccaneers (#19)319 PPGMatt Ryanvs Panthers (#14)319 PPG Running BackLeSean McCoyvs Dolphins (#18)286 PPGLe'Veon Bellvs Ravens (#5)352 PPG Running BackJeremy Hillvs Texans (#17)182 PPGDeMarco Murrayvs Jaguars (#14)280 PPG Wide ReceiverDeSean Jacksonvs Bears (#28)150 PPGDoug Baldwinvs Cardinals (#24)160 PPG Wide ReceiverRishard Matthewsvs Jaguars (#6)142 PPGDontrelle Inmanvs Browns (#22)119 PPG Tight EndDelanie Walkervs Jaguars (#10)143 PPGLadarius Greenvs Ravens (#6)111 PPG Place KickerStephen Gostkowskivs Jets (#23)88 PPGSebastian Janikowskivs Colts (#29)100 PPG Defense/STTitans vs Jaguars (#28)88 PPGChargersvs Browns (#31)98 PPG Key Bench PlayerWillie Sneadvs Buccaneers (#14)147 PPGKelvin Benjamin vs Falcons (#19)131 PPG Key InjuryMelvin Gordonvs Browns (#31)268 PPGA.J. Greenvs Texans (#3)216 PPG

POSITION-BY-POSITION DEEP THOUGHTS

QUARTERBACKS | DREW BREES (JEFF) vs. MATT RYAN (RICH C) These two teams got to this title game riding on the shoulders of their running backs, but make no mistake, both Jeff and Rich have a pair of studs at the quarterback spot. Drew Brees, who earned second-team All-Robio this year, shook off two terrible games in week 13 and 14, rolling the Cardinals last weekend for 380 yards and four scores. Yes, he’s facing the Buccaneers, a defense that just two weeks ago held him to zero touchdowns and three interceptions, but that was in Tampa. This time, the game is in the dome and this same defense allowed Dak Prescott to complete 32-of-36 passes.

Of course, Matty Ice has stacked up the stats in 2016 as well. He earned third-team All-Robio and really has avoided the second-half dip we’ve grown accustomed to. In fact, against inferior foes the last two weeks (Rams, 49ers), Ryan delivered a pair of 300-point games (totalling 618 points) and he did that without Julio Jones, who is expected back on Saturday.

Currently, ESPN has Brees and Ryan one-two in their week fifteen projections. However, while I like both of these guys to light it up, I only expect one to truly put up sick digits. Brees is back home and looking to rein on Tampa’s playoff parade. I suspect over 350 yards and three scores. Meanwhile, Matt Ryan is headed to Carolina. Yes, the Panthers pass defense was awful when the season began, but they’ve gotten better. Since their bye-week in week seven, only three quarterbacks have passed for 300 yards and none more than 320. Their last two opponents (Chargers, Redskins) have combined to score just 31 points, as the Panthers have forced eight turnovers. Yes, Ryan had over 500 yards and four touchdowns (542 fantasy points) the last time he faced Carolina, but that won’t happen again. ADVANTAGE: Drew Brees (Jeff) 

RUNNING BACK ONE | LESEAN McCOY (Jeff) vs. LE’VEON BELL (RICH C) Right now there are four great running backs that are producing at their highest level. Two of those are Zeke Elliot and David Johnson. The other two are Le’Veon Bell and LeSean McCoy. For Calderon, Bell has been a fucking beast. Since coming off his suspension, he has averaged 359 PPG. Impressed? Don’t be. Over the last six weeks, Bell has averaged 428 points per game (just two weeks removed from 776-point game).

McCoy (for Jeff) has averaged 286 PPG, but that number is a bit deceiving because McCoy only played a few snaps (22 fantasy points) in a game he got hurt in. He has over 1,000 yards rushing, 44 receptions (on only 50 targets) and 13 touchdowns. Also, like Bell, he’s gotten hot lately, averaging a manly 381 PPG over his last four.

However, where McCoy/Jeff have an advantage, it’s who they are facing. Bell will be running into a brutally tough Ravens DST, although Baltimore just gave up 150 yards rushing to the Eagles on Sunday. Still, the Ravens run defense is a top-five unit and back in week nine, held Bell to just 32 rushing yards, 70 total and zero scores. His 140 fantasy points was his lowest total of the season.

Meanwhile, McCoy will take on the Dolphins in Buffalo in the cold, who are in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run. In fact, Miami has given up at least 100 yards rushing 11 times this year, including five straight. Bilal Powell, who few would mistake for Walter Payton, just rolled the Fins for 162 total yards. On any given week, I’d give the advantage to Calderon with no hesitation. This coming week, not so much. ADVANTAGE: LeSean McCoy (Jeff) 

RUNNING BACK TWO | JEREMY HILL (Jeff) vs. DeMARCO MURRAY (Rich C) Sadly, it looks like Melvin Gordon will not be playing this week. While Jeff is covered with Jeremy Hill, this one has to sting, as the Chargers are facing the 31st rated run defense this week. I would have penciled in a healthy Gordon for 280 fantasy points, but that ain’t happening.

Listen, Jeremy Hill is a fine sub. Hell, Hill is just two weeks removed from a 344-point effort, although that was against Cleveland. Against everyone else though? Well, the last time he cracked 200 fantasy points was back in week eight. Take away that game against the Browns, since Gio Bernard got hurt, Hill has just 97 yards on 55 carries. That’s brutal and playing the Texans’s decent run defense probably won’t help. Oh and I haven’t even mentioned that he’s questionable. Hell, I rather Hill sit and start Rex Buckhead. He has 215 yards on 35 touches since he took over the handcuff role in Cincinatti.

As for Calderon, he has no worries at RB2. DeMarco Murray has been fantastic, giving Rich a pair of All-Robio backs. Of course, Murray was averaging 301 PPG through his first ten weeks and his numbers have dipped over the last month. He hasn’t rushed for 100 yards in his last four, scoring just one touchdown. Still, averaging 228 PPG is still pretty solid. The problem has been rookie Derrick Henry. He has managed to sneak onto the field more often lately, getting 29 carries over his last three, scoring three times. It’s the goal line work that should concern Rich. You see, despite the fact the Jaguars offense remains a dumpster fire, their defense isn’t tragic and the run defense isn’t awful. In fact, only three teams have rushed for over 100 yards as a team against them. However, they do give up rushing touchdowns (12 on the year). The question is, who gets those scoring opportunities? BIG ADVANTAGE: DeMarco Murray (Rich C)

WIDE RECEIVER ONE | DESEAN JACKSON (Jeff) vs. DOUG BALDWIN (Rich C) Let’s just get right to it…will A.J. Green play? If he does, is he really healthy? And will Rich Calderon actually start him? Green says he’s playing, but he should remain questionable up until the game. The problem for Rich is, if he risks putting in Green and then finds out game time he’s not playing or he’ll be limited, then he’s fucked. Cincinnati plays Saturday night (all but three teams are playing Saturday), which matters because Rich has zero auction dollars left, so the Sunday pick up rules are out for him and every other wideout he has on his roster will have already played by the time the Bengals play.

Thus, for now, I’m betting Green stays seated on Rich’s pine, leaving Doug Baldwin as his top wide receiver. The Seahawks receiver is not a WR1. He’s caught 100 yards worth of balls just twice all season. He’s broken 200 fantasy points four times. Sure he has six touchdowns, but half of those came in one game. Yet, having said that, his matchup almost couldn’t be better. The Cardinals pass defense has been pretty bad all year and has gotten worse lately, just ask Drew Brees. The Saints wide receivers caught 22 balls for 314 yards and three scores last week and that was in Arizona. Playing in Seattle, Baldwin should have one of his better games this year; keeping in mind a Doug Baldwin better game is not an A.J. Green better game. Still, 75 yards and a score isn’t out of the question.

After struggling to get healthy all season long, DeSean Jackson has finally started to produce, averaging 225 fantasy points per game over his last four. He has three 100-yard games in that span, despite having just 15 receptions (on 26 targets). Like Baldwin above, Jackson has a wonderful matchup, as the Redskins are facing the Bears, who have the 28th rated pass defense against wide receivers in fantasy. Jackson could have a field day against their weak secondary. Of course, the game is in Chicago, where it was -4 degrees last week. However, this coming Saturday, the temperature will be back in the low thirties, which shouldn’t be a major problem for Washington’s passing attack. ADVANTAGE: NONE

WIDE RECEIVER TWO | RISHARD MATTHEWS (Jeff) vs. DONTRELLE INMAN (Rich C) Over the last two months, Rishard Matthews has become Marcus Mariota’s favorite wide receiver to target. Yet, that can only mean so much. First, his favorite overall target is Delanie Walker. Second, this is a team that likes to run the ball. Still, Matthews has at least 180 fantasy points in five of his last six games, something he did just once prior to week nine.

For Calderon, Dontrelle Inman was a late pickup after the Chargers wide receiver delivered 298 fantasy points in week 12, then 202 two weeks later. Starting last week in the semifinals, he was fine, with five catches for 68 yards.

Straight up, factoring in no other factors, I’d argue that Matthews was the better of the two. However, there are always other factors.

The factor that matters is the week sixteen matchups. Matthews and the Titans face a underrated Jaguars’ pass defense. They have allowed only one group of wide receivers to catch 200 yards worth of balls (the Bears, no less, back in week six) and they’ve only allowed five wide receivers to score a touchdown over the last ten weeks. Jeff could go with Willie Snead, who definitely has a better matchup, but it’s nearly impossible to predict Saints’ receivers. Snead has had just one 200-point fantasy game since week three and has six games where he’s scored under 100.

On the flip side, Inman will be facing a weak Browns DST. Now Cleveland defense is pretty damn bad, but they’re terrible against the run, but just bad against the pass, allowing 18 touchdowns by wide receivers. Having said that, the Browns have given up just 168 receiving yards combined in their last two contests. That’s not bad.

Of course, if Rich loses faith in Inman, he might have another option on his bench and it’s not Kelvin Benjamin, who has just 98 fantasy points combined in his last three games. Rather, Cameron Meredith could get a look. He has back-to-back 200-point games, targeted 13 times last week, although they are facing a much better Redskins pass defense. ADVANTAGE: EVEN 

TIGHT END | DELANIE WALKER (Jeff) vs. KYLE RUDOLPH (Rich C)  The tight end scenarios couldn’t be any different for these two teams heading into the championship game. Jeff has Delanie Walker. He’s been healthy all year. He’s been Mariota’s favorite target all year and the Jaguars are average at best against tight ends. When Walker faced Jacksonville back in week eight, he had four catches for 75 yards. There is no reason to not believe he won’t do at least that again.

Rich isn’t quite as lucky. He began the year with Jordan Reed, who could be one of the greatest tight ends in the league if he wasn’t made of glass. Lately, Calderon has been rolling with Ladarius Green, who has been pretty decent since coming back from a head injury.

However, he’s dealing with a concussion and didn’t practice Thursday and I think he’s probably too risky to play, because of the same issue with A.J. Green above. See, the Steelers play Sunday. Rich’s backup tight end plays Saturday. This is why I have Kyle Rudolph in Rich’s projected lineup and in all honesty, it might be the better place. Green will be facing the Ravens, the 6th best team against tight ends. Rudolph will be at home facing the Packers, who are 22nd against the tight end.

Now Rudolph is not Delanie Walker, but he’s not too bad. In fact, over the last month of the season, he’s become Sam Bradford’s security blanket, getting targeted 40 times in four games. Playing in Green Bay, I suspect the Vikings will be coming from behind and throwing the ball plenty. ADVANTAGE: Delanie Walker (Jeff) 

PLACE KICKER | STEPHEN GOSTKOWSKI (Jeff) vs. SEBASTIAN JANIKOWSKI (Rich C) Gotta hand it to Jeff, not a lot of people would cut their season-long kicker in the middle of the playoffs, only to pick him right back up in the finals. It paid off, as Nick Novak hit four field goals last week, producing 180 fantasy points. This week, the logic to put Gostkowski back in makes sense. The Patriots are facing a Jets team that seems to have given up the season back in October. Yet, New England is a stunning 16.5-point favorite and you don’t get to be 16.5-point favorite by kicking a lot of field goals.

On CBS’s projection, Gostkowski is the #1 projected kicker this week. Number two? Sebastian Janikowski. He’s been on a mini-tear lately, scoring 460 fantasy points over the last three weeks. He hasn’t missed a field goal since week nine and that was for over 50 yards. Best yet, the Raiders are facing the Colts at home, a team that gives up 2.5 field goal attempts per game (research, baby!). ADVANTAGE: Sebastian Janikowski (Rich C)

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS | TITANS DST (Jeff) vs. CHARGERS DST (Rich C) Both teams head into the finals playing roto-defense. Of course, Calderon has been doing this all season long, successful I might add, and he certainly jumped on this one, picking up the Chargers prior to week sixteen. Why? Because they are facing the embarrassment that is the Browns offense. Cleveland is the third worst offensive team in fantasy. In standard scoring, a DST has scored double digit points ten times this year. That’s a lot in standard scoring. Even better, the Chargers DST has actually gotten better as the year has gone on. They give up a lot of yards for sure, but they’ve gotten better at sacking the quarterback and forced at least one turnover in every game this season.

For Jeff, he went and got the best option in free agency. The Titans DST are not the greatest, currently ranked 22nd, but they’ve been better lately, breaking 100 in four of their last five. Better yet, they are facing the Jaguars, who have a quarterback who never met an interception he didn’t like to throw. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE: Chargers (Rich C) 

WORTHLESS PREDICTION

Note: I’m good about prediction winners and losers, but typically way off predicting who does well, who doesn’t and the final score, so yeah, everything with a grain of salt, please.

Two great teams, two great seasons and it’s nearly impossible to separate them. Again, in the breakdown, which is my favorite way to measure a team, Rich only leads Jeff 8-7. Worse yet, as you can see from my individual players write up, I’m not even confident these will be the final rosters of each team.

What I do love is the star power up top with both quarterbacks and running backs. Any one of these guys (Brees, Bell, Murray or McCoy) could have one of those mind-blowing, “holy Christ” type games that makes all other performances meaningless. I’m talking about a 500-point effort that seals the deal.

Another factor could be the players that aren’t typically the cream of the crop. Can one of those receivers deliver a stunning 140 yards and two touchdowns game? Maybe a kicker comes through with five field goals or perhaps a DST gets a points bump from a ton of turnovers and a special teams touchdown.

Straight up though, I’d argue Rich has the better team. He’s proved it over and over this year. Yet, his team has also shown that it can be slowed with a speed bump and there are a couple of speed bumps in Calderon’s way this week. Obviously the biggest issue is health. Rich has two potential starters who might have to sit on his bench because of the scheduling quirk due to Christmas. Fucking Jesus!

Life is not going to be pleasant in the Calderon household if he sits either Green (A.J. or Ladarius) and one of them goes off. Secondly,  there’s the matchup issue with Bell. I expect the Ravens to keep him in check. Lastly, maybe it’s just me, but aren’t the Cleveland Browns (facing two of Rich’s starters) due? Sure, Jeff has his own issues (Hill’s health, Matthews match up), but they are not as severe.

How I see it? On Saturday afternoon, Jeff will jump out to the early lead, led by LeSean McCoy’s 344, DeSean Jackson’s 210 and Delanie Walker’s 168. Even better, Drew Brees and Jeremy Hill haven’t played yet. However, Rich will only be down 1,042-968. No shame being down just 74 points with one less player. He’ll be led by Matt Ryan, who will score 302 and DeMarco Murray, who nails down 242, as Henry steals at least one TD from him.

In the 4pm games, Calderon has two players playing. He gets a nice 210 from Doug Baldwin and surprising 160 from Janowski, but the 380 points won’t be enough to pass Jeff, as Drew Brees crushes the Bucs for 350 yards and a trio of scores, producing a game high 404 fantasy points. This gives Jeff a tiny 1,446-1,338 lead.

Each team has one running back remaining. The first to go is Jeff’s Jeremy Hill. Saturday night, he’s decent, but not great, scoring 172 fantasy points. This gives Jeff a 280-point lead over Rich and now it’s Bell’s turn on Sunday. He’s scored 280 fantasy points plenty of times this year. CBS has projected Bell will score 299, giving him a 55% chance to win.

Yet, while the Ravens defense can’t completely shutdown Bell, they hold him down just a bit. Heading into the fourth quarter of the Steelers/Ravens game, Bell has 91 total yards and a touchdown (244 fantasy points), but with under four minutes to play, the Steelers have a 20-19 lead and the ball on the goal line. It’s first down. Obviously, they give the ball to Bell. Rich is trailing Jeff by just 36 points. A touchdown will win it. But no, Bell will be stuffed. In fact, he’ll lose a yard. Worse yet, on second down, the Steelers pass the ball and Ladarius Green, who Rich benched because he was questionable all week. He scores and the Steelers go up eight.

With two minutes left, Calderon holds out hope that the Ravens will score and get a two-point conversion to force overtime (thus getting Bell more touches), but it’s not meant to be. Instead, on third-and-one at midfield, Joe Flacco will commit a Flacco and throw a 40-yard pass into double coverage. Interception. Steelers take a knee, ball game.

And that’s exactly how it will go down.

PREDICTION: NO RESPECT (JEFF) OVER THE DICK-TATERS, 1,618 – 1,580

 TITLE GAME RESULTS PositionNO RESPECTTHE DICK-TATERS TOTAL POINTS1,6181,580 QuarterbackDrew Brees404 pointsMatt Ryan302 points Running BackLeSean McCoy344 pointsLe'Veon Bell242 points Running BackJeremy Hill172 pointsDeMarco Murray244 points Wide ReceiverDeSean Jackson210 pointsDoug Baldwin210 points Wide ReceiverRishard Matthews136 pointsDontrelle Inman118 points Tight EndDelanie Walker168 pointsKyle Rudolph*122 points Place KickerStephen Gostkowski80 pointsSebastian Janikowski160 points Defense/STTitans DST104 pointsChargers DST182 points

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