I actually miss doing the mock drafts in the offseason and just prior to the draft. They’re my favorite write ups to do. However, it’s probably not a coincidence that when I stopped doing them, I started winning again every year. So like I’ve done the past couple seasons, I’m posting it as we are drafting.
ROUND ONE
1. RICH B – MATT FORTE, RB CHI Last year, there really were a trio of options for Jeff to make and as we all know, he made the right pick when he selected Jamaal Charles. For Burrier, I think Matt Forte is a no-brainer. Sure, Megatron is a sext pick, but Forte has been a stud back for years now. He has no flaws in his game (maybe a lack of touchdowns) and is coming off a 1,933 total yards season. There are no health concerns and with a healthy Cutler at QB, he should face no eight-man fronts.
2. ERIC – CALVIN JOHNSON, WR DET He’s been first-team All-Robio for three straight years. What more can I say about him? Eric has a long, long, long history of failed first-round running backs, so no one will fault him for avoiding the backfield this season.
3. DON – DEMARCO MURRAY, RB DAL The first two picks were easy. Now it gets complicated. Heading into the second half of last season, at best, Murray looked like a future fourth round pick. Yet, once he got healthy (and with all of the Cowboys’ backups hurt), he proceeded to average 317 fantasy points per game, leading Calderon to his first title. Murray has the ability to be a great back and a stacked offensive line in front of him. His problem is playing a full 16 games; something he’s never done. In fact, Murray has had over 200 carries in a year just once (last season at 217). Still, anyone can get hurt and Don should draft based on what he can get, not based on a worse case scenario.
4. MATT – GIO BERNARD, RB CIN Now things get dicey in prediction town. Neatock knows the power of an elite wide receiver. He saw first-hand what someone like Demaryius Thomas can do to a squad. Yet, picking fourth, knowing your next pick isn’t coming for a long time, you have to be smart. The next 4-5 running backs are all kind of the same when it comes to their ceiling. Matt doesn’t like old people and he can’t stand injuries. Look for him to go with an up and comer. Bernard only had 1,209 total yards and eight touchdowns last year, but he did that with only 170 carries, splitting time with Ben Green-Ellis. If the Bengals will open their eyes and let this guy be their workhorse, he could end up being the next LeSean McCoy.
5. JEFF – JAMAAL CHARLES, RB KC (KEEPER) I still believe keeping Le’Veon Bell later in the draft would be the better option, but what the fuck do I know? Charles is projected to be the best back in football again and I can’t find any reason to argue against that logic (hell, I’m keeping him in round one in another league).
6. BOB – DEMARYIUS THOMAS, WR DEN Mr. Castrone has taken a wide receiver five straight seasons. I like consistent men. They make predictions easy. The fact is, the last time I looked, Bob’s been pretty damn successful with this strategy. Peyton Manning likes to share the ball, but there is little doubt Thomas is Peyton’s favorite. 1,500 yards should be no problem for this guy.
7. MOLLY – LE’VEON BELL, RB PIT Speaking of consistent, Molly comes up after Bob and let’s face it, no one is more consistent than Molly. After drafting Peyton Manning with her first pick way back in 2002, she went running back eight straight years. That’s sort of impressive. However, the last three years she has drafted or kept a quarterback. I would have easily slipped Aaron Rodgers back into her pocket if it wasn’t for her keeping Big Ben later. Now she could easily be keeping Roethlisberger as just a backup, but my guess is, she’s changing directions this year. There are a handful of familiar names available at RB, Foster, Lynch and hometown favorite, Doug Martin, yet Molly takes pride in doing her homework and her homework should tell her that Bell is on the verge of becoming a star.
8. COLBY – ARIAN FOSTER, RB HOU With two stud receivers already sitting pretty on his roster, Colby has two real options, a running back or a quarterback. The arms are obviously tempting. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers will deliver fantasy wins all by themselves, even with our new scoring system. Yet, look for him to fill out his backfield first, hoping one of those two arms are around later. I’m giving him Foster over Lynch, despite the injury issues the Texans Back suffered through last year. Lynch is only 28 years old, but he’s coming off three straight years with at least 285 carries. That’s a lot and let’s be honest, no one wants to be the guy who draft Lynch when he finally fell off that cliff. Foster was a top-four running back three straight years (2010-2012). He’s only a year younger than Lynch, but he has over 2,000 less carries in his career.
9. ROB M – JIMMY GRAHAM, TE NO Someone has to do it. Someone has to pull the trigger. Rob needs two running backs and he might regret waiting, but one thing is for sure, Jimmy Graham outscored the next tight end by over 1,000 fantasy points last season. That’s a big.
10. ROBIO – DEZ BRYANT, WR DAL I would probably draft Jimmy Graham if Rob passes up on him, but if he does not fall in my lap, then I have a simple decision to make; running back or wide receiver. Lynch is a sexy pick for me. He has served me well the past three years (a big reason why I won a title in 2012 and a scoring title last year). Yet, I want an elite WR more than I want Lynch. The Cowboys new play caller was the former offensive player caller in Detroit. The dude knows how to get the ball to a team’s top receiver (Calvin Johnson = five All-Robio awards).
11. GRIFF – MARSHAWN LYNCH, RB SEA At this point, there are two sure-thing wide receivers; A.J. Green and Julio Jones. Griff has to see he’s going to land one of them, so he might as well go get the running back he wants. His choices are basically Doug Martin (the home town kid) or the baddest running back the past three years. Now Griff has proven to be a bit of a homer, drafting 10 Buccaneers, starting with Mike Alstott in 2000. However, he doesn’t goof off in the early rounds. The earliest Tampa Bay player he has taken was Michael Clayton in the fifth round in 2006.
12. RICH C – LESEAN McCOY, RB PHI (KEEPER) He’s a good keeper. That’s all I got to say about that.
ROUND TWO
13. RICH C – A.J. GREEN, WR CIN The defending champ has suggested he might take a third running back here (He’s keeping McCoy and Zach Stacy already), but that would be stupid. You don’t waste the 13th pick in the draft so you can pull off a trade weeks from now. Let’s face it, there is no running back you can draft here that will get you a receiver better than A.J. Green.
14. GRIFF – JULIO JONES, WR ATL Julio is an absolute stud here in the second round. Let’s not forget, he was the top receiver last season before he was knocked out with a season-ending injury. Calderon could snag him one pick later. If that happens, then nothing wrong with A.J. Green.
15. ROBIO – DOUG MARTIN, RB TB It’s tough passing up Brees/Rodgers here. That’s an awful lot of points I’m leaving on the table, but I’m a big believer in Doug Martin. The guy had over 1,900 yards as a rookie. There is no way that was a fluke. Last year was rough, even before the injury, which is why Masterson didn’t keep him and he won’t go in round one, but with Lovie Smith running the show, you know the ground game is going to be key down south.
16. ROB M – DREW BREES, QB NO Both Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have no business falling out of the first-round, yet here we hare. In a league that has basically outlawed defense backs, Brees will approach 40 touchdown passes on the season. Yes, this means Rob still has no running backs, but fuck it. Right now with Brees, Jackson, Gordon and Graham, Rob could beat a couple teams without a running back.
17. COLBY – AARON RODGERS, QB GB Colby wants an elite quarterback, but he doesn’t want to use his first pick on one. Risky, but it should pay off. It’s always nice when you can get over 5,000 fantasy points in the second-round.
18. MOLLY – ADRIAN PETERSON, RB MIN (KEEPER) Why is everyone so down on Peterson? He’s the only guy who can produce 1,437 total yards and it be a bad year. The fact is, the Vikings offense should be better this year and Peterson should approach 1,800 total yards again.
19. BOB – TOBY GERHART, RB JAC Bob has balls. I like balls. And it will take balls to draft a white guy with no breakaway speed, who has never even been a full-time starter and has now been dropped into one of the worst offenses from last season. Sure Ryan Mathews might be the safer pick or even Reggie Bush, by I look for Bob to aim high.
20. JEFF – JORDY NELSON, WR GB Nelson and Brown don’t get the same love as the elite wide receivers like Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and A.J. Green, but maybe they both should. Nelson had over 1,300 yards receiving last year, plus eight touchdowns and he did that with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball in six of those games.
21. MATT – ANTONIO BROWN, WR PIT Brown had 110 receptions last year, coming up one yard short of 1,500, yet no one really talks about him. Seriously, he had one of the most forgettable 1,500-yard seasons ever. Hell, I wouldn’t even blame Griff if he took him with the 14th pick, as Brown led him back to the title game last year.
22. DON – RANDALL COBB, WR GB Entering his third season, Cobb was on the verge of becoming a star, before he went down for the year in week five. However, we shouldn’t forget, he was on pace to record 1,400 yards receiving. Something tells me Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are the new Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.
23. ERIC – BISHOP SANKEY, RB TEN Now this would be a huge risk. Let’s face it, Sankey is a rookie. He’s had fumbling issues in the preseason and let’s not forget, the Titans’ O-line the last two years has been less than impressive. Yet, looking at their running back depth, who is going to step up and prevent this kid from getting 18+ touches per game? Shonn Greene? I wouldn’t let Greene run an errand for me, let alone carry a football.
24. RICH B – MICHAEL CRABTREE, WR SF Jerry Rice once called the chemistry between Colin Kaepernick and Michael Crabtree “swagger” and I’m never going to argue with the greatest receiver of all-time. Because of injury, Kaepernick and Crabtree have played together just 12 times, yet in that time Crabtree has 81 receptions, 1,182 yards and 9 touchdowns. If they can produce those stats over a 16-game season, that would be 1,576 yards on 108 receptions, scoring 12 touchdowns. That would mean Rich gets the 2-3 best receiver in football with the 24th pick.
ROUND THREE
25. RICH B – RYAN MATHEWS, RB SD
26. ERIC – VERNON DAVIS, TE SF
27. DON – REGGIE BUSH, RB DET
28. MATT – JOIQUE BELL, RB DET
29. JEFF – ANDRE JOHNSON, WR HOU
30. BOB – LARRY FITZGERALD, WR ARI
31. MOLLY – PIERRE GARCON, WR WAS
32. COLBY – BRANDON MARSHALL, WR CHI (KEEPER)
33. ROB M – VINCENT JACKSON, WR TB (KEEPER)
34. ROBIO – MONTE BALL, RB DEN
35. GRIFF – CORDARRELLE PATERSON, WR MIND
36. RICH C – MATT STAFFORD, QB DET
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