As we all have learned over the years, I don’t really like doing mock drafts just prior to the season. I’m a competitor in this league, so why am I helping others? Of course most of my personal mocks I do are blown up rather quickly (thank you Bob), but my point remains valid.
However, I don’t mind doing them in April. It’s way too early to do them, which means if you end up using this as some kind of guide during the draft in August, then good luck with all that. Having said that, enjoy.
Note: I’ve talked about changing the way we do scoring in this league, however, if and when I decide that, I’m pretty sure it will NOT go into effect in 2012. So keep that in mind when drafting.
FIRST-ROUND
#1 ERIC – LeSean McCoy, RB PHI It really is a coin flip here, McCoy or Rice, Rice or McCoy? Both were first-team All-Robio players last year. The reality is, I don’t think even Eric can mess this pick up. Wait, did I just jinx him? Sorry, dude.
#2 CALDERON – Ray Rice, RB BAL With Michael Bush going to Chicago to backup Matt Forte, you have to believe Calderon will scratch him off his potential keeper list. This means he’s keeping Blount, right? If so, that gives Rich two solid backs (he’s also keeping DeMarco Murray in category three). If that’s the case, can he really use this pick on another running back? Hard to believe, but then again, could Calderon really pass on Rice?
#3 JEFF – Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI This is a tough spot for Jeff. He misses out on the two true elite running backs, but if my keeper predictions are right, Jeff will be keeping both Reggie Bush (who had a breakout end-of-2011) and Sproles (who had a breakout year). Can he rely on both to be legit starters? Probably not, but at the very least both should be good enough to allow Jeff to grab the best receiver available here (for the second year in a row it’s Fitz).
#4 ROBIO – Andre Johnson, WR HOU There’s no mystery here. I’m not keeping Peterson. I might shop the fourth pick in the draft (to move down in this round), but if that doesn’t happen, I’m taking the best wide out available.
#5 MATT – Maurice Jones-Drew, RB There is very little in sex appeal in drafting MJD, but Matt learned last year you should never deny his abilities. He’s been a first, second or third team All-Robio back three years running.
#6 GRIFF – Jamaal Charles, RB KC Last year Griff had Charles in the final round of the draft. This year he will cost Mr. Coomer more. Sure the Chiefs’ speedster tore his ACL last year, but it happened so early in the season, he’ll have almost a full year of recovery under his belt. He’s a risk (CBS has him ranked only 18th, slightly ahead of Helu), but it could pay off big.
#7 MASTERSON – Chris Johnson, RB TEN (Keeper) Previously I’ve predicted that Rob would keep Ahmad Bradshaw in round three. Yes, if Bradshaw is healthy and has a career year, it is great value two rounds later. However, Bradshaw has yet to prove he is capable of that. Knowing Masterson, he plays it safe. There is no way Johnson struggles for a second year in a row.
#8 MOLLY – Aaron Rodgers, QB GB (Keeper) Really, any questions here? If Molly didn’t keep him I’d kick her out of the league.
#9 DON – Roddy White, WR ATL Tough call here for Mr. Vozzola. He’s got Adrian Peterson sitting right here for the taking. A healthy Purple Jesus with a healthy Fred Jackson (a keeper for Don) gives him the best backfield in football. Of course the key word is “healthy.” Not only is Peterson coming off a ACL tear, he’s coming off a late ACL tear. Look for Don to play it safe, wait for a second running back and grab the best wide receiver on the board.
#10 COLBY – Adrian Peterson, RB MIN So far I’ve mentioned the word “safe” twice already in this round. That’s not a word I like to use when discussing Colby. If anyone is going to roll the dice on an elite running back, coming off a late ACL tear, the kind that could keep him off the field for the early part of the season…that man would be Colby.
#11 BURRIER – Drew Brees, QB NO (Keeper) Burrier kept him last year early in this round, so obviously he’s going to keep him late in this round.
#12 BOB – Michael Turner, RB ATL Another tough decision in the first round of this draft. Bob is hard to predict. He’s never afraid to flush the mock draft down the toilet. He’s keeping Cam Newton (obviously), along with Jordy Nelson in Category two. Also, Ryan Matthews arguable has the best value among all of Bob’s backs in the third round. Lat year he waited to fill up his running back spots, this year he takes care of it rather quickly.
SECOND-ROUND
#13 BOB – A.J Green, WR CIN Surprised? Too high you say? Maybe, but A) he had a fantastic rookie year and B) Everyone says he’s the next Randy Moss. Wouldn’t you have taken Randy Moss in his second year?
#14 BURRIER – Chris Wells, RB ARI Based on my keeper predictions, Burrier won’t be keeping any running backs, with Drew Brees occupying up his first-round pick. Assuming he’s going to keep either Torrey Smith or Jeremy Maclin in category three, he only needs one wide receiver. Does Rich grab that one WR here (one who could generate the most total points) or does he start to fill up those running back spots with backs who probably don’t deserve to go this high? I’m going with the latter. There are plenty of options, Bradshaw, S-Jax and Greene, but I’m predicting a solid pre-season for Wells which will sell Wells to Rich.
#15 COLBY – Tom Brady, QB NE (Keeper) This is a no-brainer keeper here. He’s a stat machine who gives Colby a fighting chance against anyone in this league.
#16 DON – Steven Jackson, RB STL Don passes on Peterson and snags White in round one. By keeping Bowe once last time in round three, he’s set at wide out with two number one receivers. Does he grab a borderline tier one quarterback now and wait a lot of picks to grab a second running back? Nah, running backs who dont split time are hard to come by and that’s what Jackson still is.
#17 MOLLY – Mike Wallace, WR PIT Prior to last year, I would always pick Molly to take a running back as soon as she was allowed to. However, in last year’s draft, she shook things up, thus throwing my imaginary mock draft out the window. Molly produced the second best regular season ever not with elite running backs, but with stud receivers. Pair Wallace up with Victor Cruz (a potential keeper for Molly) and she’s golden again.
#18 MASTERSON – Philip Rivers, QB SD With the three best quarterbacks already off the board before the draft even starts, it’s tough to figure out where the next best arms are going to go. Obviously one could go in round one, but is anyone really going to use their top pick on Rivers, Manning, Romo or Vick? Rob values a arm in 2012, but which one? Rivers had an off year last year, but he still finished top-10 and he doesn’t come with the built-in health risks that Manning and Vick come with.
#19 GRIFF – Peyton Manning, QB DEN Someone has to do it, right? If he’s healthy and can be just 80% of the old Manning, then Griff will be golden with a stud roster of Manning, Charles, Foster (keeper) and Wes Welker (keeper).
#20 MATT – Ahmad Bradshaw, RB NYG Neatock has the luxury of not wasting a early pick on a quarterback (thank you Matt Stafford), but what does he do? He grabbed the workhorse Jones-Drew in round one, but this is an important pick. I have him keeping Greg Jennings in round three, so Matt doesn’t pick again until round four. By then, there won’t be any tier two running backs left.
#21 ROBIO – Tony Romo, QB DAL I don’t really want to take a quarterback this early, but with Rivers and Manning off the board, I’m worried I’ll miss out. Vick’s inability to stay on the field scares me, so I’ll do the homor pick.
#22 JEFF – Michael Vick, QB PHI So far, Jeff has good players (keepers Bush, Sproles to go along with first-round pick Larry Fitzgerald). Good players, but this team probably isn’t scaring many. It’s time to roll the dice and go large. Vick has issues, but when he’s on the field, he’s a point producer.
#23 CALDERON – Calvin Johnson, WR DET (Keeper) Arguable the best wide receiver in football. Rich has no choice but to keep him.
#24 ERIC – Vincent Jackson, WR TB He’s set at running back with Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy. He also has Steve Smith, so he can either go quarterback (Eli, anyone?), but let’s grab the next best wide receiver instead.
THIRD-ROUND
#25 ERIC – Jimmy Graham, TE NO Eli would be a great selection here. The fact is, based on stats, Manning is better than the four quarterbacks I have going in round two, but can he really pass on a tight end that puts up tier one wide receiver numbers? (Note: I have Molly keeping Victor Cruz in category two, thus Graham is available).
#26 CALDERON – Hakeem Nicks, WR NYG This is a tough one for Rich. I believe Eli is the last of the lock tier 1/tier 2 quarterbacks. If Rich waits, he’s not going to get him. Still, Nicks is an elite receiver whose best days are still ahead of him. (Note: I have Colby keeping Antonio Brown in category three over Nicks).
#27 JEFF – Jermichael Finley, TE GB Jeff benefits from have three keepers locked in, plus having both of his first two picks. This means heading into round three, he just has two more positions to fill, tight end and defense. This allows for him to reach a bit. Last year Jeff road with Aaron Hernandez, but why not go for a more consistent stat guy like Finley.
#28 ROBIO – Vernon Davis, TE SF Did you see what Davis did during last year’s post-season? I did.
#29 MATT – Greg Jennings, WR GB (Keeper) He’s got one more year left with Jennings, an elite tier one receiver Matt got in a trade back in 2010.
#30 GRIFF – Wes Welker, WR NE (Keeper) Last year Colby should have kept Welker (I think it was round 3-4), but passed. Griff won’t make the same mistake.
#31 MASTERSON – Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN Okay, Rob passed on Peyton Manning in round two, but he wants to benefit in someway. The big question heading into 2012 is which receiver is going to benefit from having Manning throwing passes. My money has Thomas moving up the mock draft boards.
#32 MOLLY – S. Greene, NYJ RB She’s waited to take a running back, but she can’t wait anymore. Is Greene really ready to take control of the Jets back field? He should be with a new offensive coordinator.
#33 DON – Dwayne Bowe, WR KC (Keeper) Bowe is a bit inconsistent for my taste, but his touchdown totals keep putting him among the top-10 receivers. Of course being that this is his third year, maybe Don might want to try someone new.
#34 COLBY – DeSean Jackson, WR PHI Colby needs plenty still, another receiver, a quarterback, a tight end, a defense and even a running back to fill in for Peterson if he is slow to recover. In reality, Colby could draft any one of these positions right now. However, Mr. Hall is a value guy. He ignores positions and gets the most points available. In my mind, he’s eyeing an elite defense or the best wide receiver on the board. Now that DeSean has his new contract, the only thing he should be focused on is football.
#35 BURRIER – Willis McGahee, RB DEN Burrier has an elite quarterback (Brees) and an elite tight end (Gronkowski) to go along with a tier 2 RB (Wells) and a tier 2 WR (Maclin or Smith). It’s hard to imagine him not taking either a wide receiver or a running back, although he did take a defense early last year. For my money, go get the best back in the new Denver offense.
#36 BOB – Ryan Mathews, RB SD (Keeper) With Mike Tolbert out of San Diego, the back field belongs to Mathews, at least until the Chargers draft another running back. Either way, Mathews showed a lot of promise last year when he was healthy.
FOUR-ROUND
#37 BOB – 49ers DST, SF Based on my keeper projections, Bob’s starting lineup is nearly set with Cam Newton, Michael Turner, Ryan Mathews, A.J. Green and Jordy Nelson. So it’s going to be either the next best tight end or the best defense. I’m going with the latter.
#38 BURRIER – Percy Harvin, WR MIN In the final month of the 2011 football season, Harvin was one of the most productive players on the field…not just wide receiver, but player. He’s too talented for the Vikings coaching staff to ignore, especially if Peterson struggles to return.
#39 COLBY – Eli Manning, QB NYG I might be undervaluing Eli here by having him fall this far, but if Colby can wait four rounds to land a quarterback as good as Eli, then he’s going to be happy.
#40 DON – Aaron Hernandez, TE NE Am I the only person who thinks this guy is a bit overrated? Don’t get me wrong, he’s good, but CBS has him as the third best tight end.
#41 MOLLY – Jason Witten, TE DAL Are tight ends ready to fly off the board? Molly understands the importance of a good tight end. She doesn’t average over 1,500 last year without Jimmy Graham.
#42 MASTERSON – Roy Helu, RB WAS So far Rob has passed on taking another running back after keeping Chris Johnson in round one. Of course if one decides to really wait this long, then your options are wide open. Helu looked good last year when he was finally handed the starting job. The problem is, one might not be able to trust Coach Shanahan.
#43 GRIFF – Dez Bryant, WR DAL Is this the year Dez Bryant finally overtakes Miles Austin in the stat department in Dallas? Obviously I think Griff will think so. Austin remains on the board as Bryant goes first.
#44 MATT – Brandon Marshall, WR CHI The man is a head case and there’s always the risk he’ll be in jail for some crime by seasons end, but now that he has Jay Cutler throwing to him again, chances are Marshall could become a legit low-end tier one receiver.
#45 ROBIO – Ravens DST, BAL I need both a second wide receiver and a defense. There are some sexy options at wide receiver, especially Colston and Miles Austin, but I’m going to do something I haven’t done in a long time, draft an elite defense early. Maybe just maybe it will lead me to a place I haven’t been in a long time…title town.
#46 JEFF – Steve Johnson, WR BUF Jeff can actually keep Johnson in this exact same spot and I’ll be honest, that’s not a bad option. But why keep him for two more years when he can most likely just draft him and potentially keep him for three more years?
#47 CALDERON – Matt Ryan, QB ATL It’s simple, Matt Ryan has one of the best receivers in football, Roddy White, one of the best up-and-coming receivers, Julio Jones, and a tight end that never seems to get too old, Tony Gonzalez. If he can’t become elite this year, he never will.
#48 ERIC – Marques Colston, WR CHI If Eric can truly land Colston this far back in the draft, be happy. This would give Eric a solid starting lineup of McCoy and Forte at running back, S. Smith and Colston at receiver and Jimmy Graham at tight end.
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