It’s cousin vs. cousin the 13th title game in Robioland history. While the top two teams (Griff and Calderon) failed to escape the first-round, this is the third time in four years that the championship game featured two high seeds (1-4). This is a bit surprising considering how many upsets we have in this league.
No. 3 TEBOW’S BEFORE HOES VS No. 4 ROMOLICIOUS
ERIC: 11-4, averaging 1,490 PPG ROBIO: 9-6, averaging 1,369 PPG
2012 BREAKDOWN: Eric leads 10-5, but I would have won the last two.
CAREER MATCH UP: I lead the series, 8-5. However, Eric has won four of seven, including two straight.
THIS SEASON’S MATCH UP: Eric over Robio, 1271-1073 A long, long time ago, Eric and I were both 5-0, one more win a way from becoming the first 7-0 vs 7-0 match up in league history. Well, we both fell in week six, so the game was less sexy. Despite the fact we were 1-2 in scoring, the game was a low scoring affair. I was without starting QB Matt Ryan and WR Roddy White, while Eric had to sit Philip Rivers and Demaryius Thomas.
Eric got 255 points from the Bears DST (thanks to four turnovers) and 294 from fill-in QB Carson Palmer. Ray Rice struggled (just 80 points), but Matt Forte chipped in 150 points. For me, only Matt Hasselback (221) and the 49ers DST (200) broke 200. I had decent games from Lynch (192) and Percy Harvin (142), but Vernon Davis was shutout.
PLAYOFF CAREERS: ROBIO: I’m 19-6 in the post-season. I’ve won three titles, but I have lost three of the last six championship games. ERIC: He is just 2-3 in the post-season. This year is the first time he’s won a playoff game and advanced out of the first round.
CBS GURU THOUGHTS: Eric, -384 The Guru has made Eric the heavy favorite. I can’t blame him. I predicted Eric would be the best team back in the preseason. I picked him to win it all in my playoff predictions. So far, my cousin has made me look wicked smart. The fact is, the guru has predicted that every player Eric has will out-score every single one of my players at their respective position.
PLAYER-BY-PLAYER THOUGHTS: TEBOW'S BEFORE HOESROMOLICIOUS TOM BRADY @ Jaquars So do you think Brady will be looking to take out some anger on a horrible Jaguars' defense after losing to the 49ers Sunday night? Something tells me he's about to go. I'm think 300+ yards and four touchdowns at least. The only thing that bothers me about him this week is the fact that Brady has never broken 400 fantasy points on the road and on grass this season. Stil, you just know Belichick is tired of seeing Pete Carroll stealing all the headlines and will keep Brady passing despite a 30-point lead. POINTS: 492MATT RYAN @ Lions While has been nothing short of amazing at home, he's actually been pretty good on the road. He has 17 touchdowns to five interceptions away from Atlanta. He's certainly capable of putting up huge numbers and can certainly match Brady, even against the Jaguars, but the problem is, the Lions have nothing to play for and if the Falcons jump out early, then Ryan will not be doing a lot of throwing in the second half. POINTS: 344 RAY RICE @ Giants Rice has been a 200-point machine this year, scoring at least that much nine times so far. Now last week he came up short, just 52 fantasy points against the Broncos. Was that game a fluke? I believe it was. That was Jim Caldwell's first game as offensive coordinator and it's tough to call Rice's number when you're down 21-0 before you break a sweat. While the Giants can be a tough D against the run, there is no doubt the game plan for the Ravens in week sixteen is feed the fucking ball to Ray Rice. I smell 100 yards and a TD. POINTS: 246MARSHAWN LYNCH @ 49ers Just like last year, Lynch is heating up at the right time (of course last year I wasn't in the post-season). Lynch has averaged 294 ppg over his last three and he's done that despite being benched in the third quarter against Arizona and Buffalo. Still, this week he'll face the second toughest run defense in the league (49ers). When these two teams faced off before, Lynch actually got 100 yards rushing (no touchdowns). This time I expect the 49ers to load the box and dare Seattle to beat them with Wilson throwing from the pocket. POINTS: 138 ALFRED MORRIS @ Eagles Go ahead and call Morris the difference maker. This is moment for Morris to show the league why Eric shipped Forte away for Tom Brady. Facing an Eagles defense that has been awful against the run, Morris could put up a career day. I'm talking 150 yards at least. The only real question is, will he get the goal line carries? I suspect the Redskins will score two rushing touchdowns, but Morris will score just one of them. POINTS: 312DARREN McFADDEN @ Panthers Since returning to the lineup two weeks ago, McFadden has gotten better each week. Of course the key to his success is the fact that the Raiders give him the ball a ton. What's been missing has been that traditional McFadden explosion, i.e. that one huge run that turns a good fantasy day into a great one. The Panthers D has played some great ball lately, so McFadden won't get a free ride, but I like 90-100 yards and a touchdown this week. POINTS: 232 DEMARYIUS THOMAS @ Browns It's been two weeks since Thomas has last scored a touchdown and five weeks since he's produced over 100 yards in receiving. This means bad news for me, good news for Eric, because no player is more primed to have a breakout game this week. With the Browns' best quarterback out this week, Thomas should find the end zone twice. POINTS: 248RODDY WHITE @ Lions When Julio Jones is healthy, he's Matt Ryan's favorite target and on average, he, not Roddy White, has the better game. Now the Falcons are facing a weak Detroit team that has given up on the season (see loss to Arizona), but right now White is struggling with his health (he's barely practicing) and I suspect he'll have a quiet Saturday night. POINTS: 122 REGGIE WAYNE @ Chiefs While Wayne does have a touchdown, over the last three weeks, defenses have been able to reduce Wayne's role in the offense. He has just 13 catches for 129 yards. Obviously the Colts will be facing a bad Chiefs team, but don't forget, the Chiefs D has from time-to-time come up big at home. I'm not predicting a Chiefs win, but I suspect Wayne will be the one disappointing player on Eric's team. POINTS: 126BRIAN HARTLINE @ Bills Since scoring 542 points in week four, Hartline has pretty much been a non-factor, averaging just 108 fantasy points per game, producing just one 100-yard game. Worse yet, he hasn't scored a touchdown since that big game. So why do I keep playing him? With Percy Harvin out for the season, I sadly don't have anyone else. Plus, he's due, right? Yeah, I don't think so either. With Bess out for the Fins, Hartline will be thrown to a lot, but I still don't see a touchdown coming his way. POINTS: 184 JASON WITTEN @ Saints Do you know who loves the Saints defense? Tight ends do, that's who. Tight ends have feasted on the Saints all year long. Since finally recovering from his preseason injury, Witten has quietly put together another great season. I would expect another 6-8 catches this week. POINTS: 164DENNIS PITTA @ Giants Vernon Davis, Jake Tamme, Martellus Bennett and now Dennis Pitta. That's right, by picking up Pitta, I'm starting my fourth tight end in four weeks. I'll be honest, I never thought this position would be a major problem when I drafted Vernon Davis. Once again, I'm going with the hot pair of hands. While I haven't lost in the last two weeks, it has had nothing to do with this strategy. POINTS: 102 BEARS DST @ Cardinals Jesus, could Eric catch any more of a break? His Bears D has actually looked pretty average over the last month, so why not have the most pathetic offense I've ever seen show up in the title game? Yeah, I know they looked pretty good against the Lions last week, but the Lions are a joke. The Bears are still fighting for a playoff spot. Can you say at least five turnovers? POINTS: 266CHARGERS DST @ Chiefs For a brief moment I flirted with the idea of just saying, fuck it, start the guys I drafted and play both the 49ers DST and Vernon Davis against the Saints. Obviously, in the end, I decided not to go that route. I just fee like the 49ers D, coming off an emotional cross-country win, would not be ready to compete in Seattle seven days later. So instead, I'm going to put my faith (or lack of faith) in the Jets offense for the second straight week. POINTS: 166 STEPHEN GOSTKOWSKI @ Jaguars I expect the Patriots to roll the Jaguars this week. This is actually bad news for Gostkowski. Look for five extra points and one field goal attempt (80-90 points top). POINTS: 90DAN BAILEY @ Saints Despite the Saints shutting out the Buccaneers last week, this game should be a high scoring match up, so plenty of opportunities for Bailey. POINTS: 100
FINAL THOUGHT:
I’d love to pick myself. After losing three of the last six championship games, I think I’m due. Unfortunately being due has nothing to do with it. On almost any given week, I’d give the nod to Eric’s squad over mine, this was even true in the season’s first month when he and I were undefeated and neck-and-neck in points.
However, heading into the last game of the fantasy season, Eric’s team is completely healthy and he’s got great match ups at every single spot. He has four different players (Brady, Morris, Thomas and the Bears DST) that could end up with 250 points each. Not only do I think Eric is going to win, I think he’s going to challenge Burrier’s 2003 title game record of 2,011 points.
For me to pull off the upset, I’m going to need Matt Ryan to have an epic 500+ night, I’m going to need McFadden to produce just his third 200-point game of the year (a first since week eight), I’m going to need Marshawn Lynch to do what no one has done, which is run against the 49ers defense, I’m going to need Roddy White to out-produce Julio Jones and I’m going to need to guess right for the third straight week at defense. Do you think all those things are going to happen? Yeah, me neither.
FINAL PREDICTION: Eric over Robio, 1,944 – 1,388.
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