It’s not the size of your mug that counts, it’s how many you have.
How does one make predictions. Sure I can do a ton of research (which I do), but do I simply add up the numbers and declare the team with the highest totals the winner? Seems easy, but I can’t really ignore other factors, right? Don’t I have to consider Colby’s abilities to do trades that actually improve his team? Don’t I have to consider the Coomer’s waiver wire skills? Dare I try to predict injuries? I think I do…so here we go.
After crunching all the numbers, I found that there are four tiers in this league. The top tier are the teams I consider the elites. It doesn’t mean these teams are currently perfect in their present form, but if I feel like they’re missing a piece and I have faith in those owners to find that piece throughout season.
Tier two are playoff locks, but there is something missing for that title run. They’ll have to find some new pieces to win it all.
The third tier are teams good enough to make the post-season, but each has a huge problem (injuries, shit running backs) that will bother them throughout the season. These are the teams that will fight for the final playoff sot.
The fourth tier teams are not playoff caliber…at least not in their present form. Keep in mind, at least half of the teams I predict to miss the post-season end up making the playoffs and often win the whole damn thing (like Bob last year).
PRESEASON RANKING
TIER ONE
1. TEBOW’S BEFORE HOES (ERIC) – POINTS: 1,490 PPG Am I really predicting a worst-to-first? There must be a lot of fuzz on my balls, because I am.
2. QUARTER POUNDERS (COLBY) – POINTS: 1,451 PPG The fan favorite just misses out on the top spot, but don’t take it personally…this may be Colby’s best team ever.
3. THE GRIFFTERS (GRIFF) – POINTS: 1,450 PPG In reality, I have Griff and Colby nearly tied. Only one point separates the pair according to my math.
4. THE DICK-TATERS (RICH C) – POINTS: 1,416 PPG This is the year of the Johnson…Calvin Johnson that is.
TIER TWO
5. WILDCARD BITCHES! (BOB) – POINTS: 1,366 PPG Bob reached at some spots in the draft, but I trust his in-season mind. Never doubt the defending champ.
6. ROMOLICIOUS (ROBIO) – POINTS: 1,362 PPG My current squad would have easily won the championship of the final eight weeks of last year. Of course what good does that do me in 2012?
7. GLORY HOLE DAYS (ROB M) – POINTS: 1,359 PPG The last time Rob crashed the post-season in back-to-back seasons was 2003-2004. I don’t even think Don owed a bike back then.
TIER THREE
8. VICK IN WHITE (MATT) – POINTS: 1,302 PPG The team I most fear that my numbers are wrong. There is always one.
9. GATOR NATION (DON) – POINTS: 1,298 PPG Don has the talent to be a tier one team, but there are too many health issues to put him up near the top.
10. TEAM 6 (RICH B) – POINTS: 1,277 PPG The 2012 draft was not Rich’s finest hour, but there is enough talent to make a playoff push.
TIER FOUR
11. MOLLIPOP (MOLLY) – POINTS: 1,255 PPG The 2012 Pop’s are not the 2011 Pop’s, but Molly’s proven she can’t work the waiver wire.
12. SPIDER TWO WIDE BANANA – POINTS: 1,209 PPG A lot of things did not go Jeff’s way during the draft. Just ask Andy Dalton.
TEAM-BY-TEAM ANALYST
1. TEBOW’S BEFORE HOES (ERIC)
PHILIP RIVERS | Sorry, I would have much preferred Romo, Ryan or even Eli. His best pair of hands is a tight end (Gates) who can’t stay on the field and who is his #1 receiver? Robert Meachem. Really? Still, it’s not like he’s going to be a bust. Rivers is still a top-10 arm.
RAY RICE | Last year Eric got killed by his first pick in the draft (thank you Chris Johnson). The difference this year is Rice didn’t holdout and the Ravens are a much better team. I just wish Rice would score more.
MATT FORTE | With Rice & Forte, Matt has the clear best backfield in football. Both backs are in run-first offenses, both are excellent receivers, thus both backs will compete for first-team All-Robio.
STEVE SMITH | One of two players Eric has gotten due to dump trades over the past two years. First he got Forte in 2010 (Calderon) and then Smith last year (Masterson). Still, look for Smith’s numbers to dip a bit, as Cam spreads the ball around more this year.
DEMARYIUS THOMAS | Another pick where I would have rather seen Eric take someone else. In this case, I’d have more faith in Colston or Marshall over Thomas.
JASON WITTEN | Not quite a steal, but Witten’s injury certainly paid off for Eric. When he returns from his injury he won’t put up Graham or Gronkowski type numbers, but he’s still a top-five TE and he’ll make life easier when he faces those teams with Graham and Gronkowski.
BEARS DST | Solid keeper, but Eric has a bad record of rotating D’s in and out based on match ups and when I say bad, I mean he just doesn’t really do it. The Bears are a solid start, but you got to get them out of there against the elite squads.
OFF THE PINE | The bench doesn’t wow me, but I do like Reggie Wayne. Luck looks like the real deal and Wayne will be his security blanket. Veteran receivers like Moss and Little should never sniff Eric’s starting lineup though. Eric’s biggest failure was his inability grab a legit backup RB. Wells isn’t keeping his job over Ryan Williams and Starks will be lucky to make the team.
IN THE END | Everyone knows I believe in one thing…running backs still win championships. Give me a lineup with two top-five backs and I’ll give you a championship mug. Don’t be surprised if Rice/Forte end up as one of the best tandems of all time. While I have reservations regarding Rivers and Thomas, I certainly don’t see them as holes, while Witten and Steve Smith will remain must-starts all season long. I do have some concerns that Eric lacks the know-how to run and improve a great team throughout the season. His one great team (started 5-0) ended the season 3-5. Having said that, I do believe in miracles, so mark it down, Eric’s going from worst-to-first, baby! He’s my preseason favorite.
2. QUARTER POUNDERS (COLBY)
TOM BRADY | The pick-up artist…meaning, the rest of this team could bomb and Colby will still win some games just because Brady’s stats will pick up the rest of the team (yeah, that’s a long way for a Robert Downey Jr. movie reference). Put it this way, if all his players score just 100 points, Brady needs just 350 yards and three touchdowns (an average day for him) and the Pounders have 1,300 points.
JAMAAL CHARLES | The dude has a career yard per carry of 6.1. That’s stunning, but the problem has always been and will remain amount of carries. Coming off an ACL injury and sharing the backfield with Peyton Hillis, I just don’t see him averaging more than 15 carries per game and he’ll never sniff a goal line TD.
BEN GREEN-ELLIS | He’s produced 24 touchdowns over the last two years. That’s great, but didn’t Tom Brady have a lot to do with that? From my count, 18 of those 24 touchdowns were from five yards or less, 11 were one-yard dives. In Cincinnati, he’ll end up with more carries, thus more yards, but can he match the TD totals?
HAKEEM NICKS | He’s a 1,000-yard receiver, but my gut says Cruz remains Eli’s #1, while Nicks remains a solid high-end WR2 in this league.
BRANDON MARSHALL | The third-round is too early to call anyone a steal, but this was a great get. This is a guy who caught 80 balls for over 1,000 yards at Miami. Yes, at Miami. In Chicago, Marshall gets his quarterback back again. If he keeps his head on straight, he’s a top-10 WR this year.
ANTONIO GATES | When healthy, he’s still one of the better tight ends, although he is not in the same league as Graham and Gronkowski. However, he’s getting up there in age. Can Colby squeeze one more good year out of him?
RAVENS DST | Colby waited to take a D and it paid off. I love the Ravens D. In fact, with Brady, Colby has the league’s best QB/DST combo (Brady and the Ravens could average over 600 combined points).
OFF THE PINE | Ironically the only true sleeper stud to start the season is Rashard Jennings, but that’s because of MJD’s hold out. However, I truly believe Jones-Drew will be back starting by week 2-3 and Jennings is back to the bench. Robert Meachem has the best long term potential. Someone’s got to be the #1 receiver in San Diego, right? Amdendola’s averages less yards per catch than Jamaal Charles does rushing and I think Cobb is still a year or two away from making an impact. Kevin Smith is the X-factor. He’s the starter in Detroit, but by mid-season there could be four running backs in Detroit and word is the Lions are shopping for another one.
IN THE END | One thing Colby has that the other three tier-one teams don’t have is Tom Brady. He could be the guy who could put Colby over the top. My biggest concern is the lack of a true RB1. Yes, I know both Charles and BGE has the goods to be one. In fact, if they do, this season belongs to Colby, but I expect some struggles. In the end, Brady/Ravens, with those receivers and a healthy Gate makes Colby a championship-caliber team.
3. THE GRIFFTERS (GRIFF)
PEYTON MANNING | Griff waited to grab a quarterback and I believe it paid off. Do I think Peyton will be the Peyton of old? No, but if he’s 80-percent of the old Peyton, that will be plenty. He doesn’t need to keep up with the Rodgers/Brees/Brady trio, he just needs to not get his ass-kicked by them.
ARIAN FOSTER | He’s the best back in football. This is the last season Griff will get to enjoy Foster’s services, since he’ll be the league’s top pick in 2013.
DONALD BROWN | Talk about balls, big hairy Griff balls. You’d have a hard time finding a person in this league that would say, “hey, wouldn’t it be great to have Donald Brown in my starting lineup.” He’s done nothing in this league so far, struggling to even play a full season. Yet, he is the number one guy on an Indy offense that should be better this year.
ANTONIO BROWN | Griff reaches early for Brown, the projected #1 wide receiver in Pittsburgh. I think he’ll be a solid player, but I suspect he and Wallace will split the #1 receiver duties, meaning Brown will walk out of some games with the most points, while Wallace walks out with the most points in others.
WES WELKER | I certainly don’t think he’s done, but I suspect his numbers will dip a bit this year. I just don’t see another first-team All-Robio year. Having said that, if he can finish in the top-12 among all receivers, Griff is still golden.
JIMMY GRAHAM | I love this pick. I think it was the right thing to do. He produces so many more points than other tight ends (except Gronkowski). Not bad for a guy who didn’t start playing football until his senior year in college.
PACKERS DST | A lot of experts had the Packers as the number one D. I’m not buying it. Top-10, sure…but I still think they’ll give up too many points this season.
OFF THE BENCH | I love the Justin Blackmon pick. I think he duplicates what A.J. Green did last year. He’ll be a great keeper over the next three years. He’ll certainly get some playing time in Griff’s lineup this year. Ben Tate was a great handcuff. He’s so good he could walk into the starting lineup and fill Foster’s shoes quite easily. After that, not seeing much. Both Crabtree and Mike Williams will continue to disappoint, while Bradford seems like a wasted pick (the Rams look awful this preseason). C.J. Spiller only has value if Fred Jackson goes down again.
IN THE END |From last season, Griff has two 2011 first-team All-Robio players (Welker and Graham) and a second-team All-Robio player (Foster). No other team can say that. With the exception of Donald Brown, what Griff has is a roster full of proven talent. I would argue that of his eight non-kicker starters, just about the entire league would be happy to have any of his players on his roster. I’m predicing the Welker/Brown/Graham will be the league’s top receiving trio, capable of producing 550-600 points per game. The X-Factor will be Donald Brown and that flex position. If Brown can hold down the fort, then Griff is a major contender. If he’s a 1,300 yards, 12 TD guy, then you can argue that Griff’s the favorite.
4. THE DICK-TATERS (RICH C)
ELI MANNING | Did you know that despite all of Eli’s success in the NFL, he’s only been a top-10 quarterback in fantasy twice, his second year in the league and this past season. Can he do it again? I’m not 100% confident. It’s not that I think he’s going to suddenly suck, hell he has two solid targets in Cruz/Nicks, but I foresee three things happening. A) A post-Superbowl hangover from the Giants, B) Less targets, who are his third and fourth receivers? C) The Giants will run the ball more this year. One thing that really helped Eli last year was the fact that the Giants were always down, thus a ton of passing and a ton of fourth quarter touchdowns.
LeSEAN McCOY | I bet Rich didn’t know he would be counting on Michael Vick staying healthy again this year. Why? Well, McCoy’s numbers last year with Vick in the lineup: 273 PPG. McCoy’s stats without Vick: 181 PPG. That’s a big difference.
DeMARCO MURRAY | What’s not to like about this young back? He’s special. The problem will be Dallas’ awful offensive line. If he can get some holes, Murray can do a lot of damage (see 91-yard TD run from last year), but it’s the holes I’m worried about.
CALVIN JOHNSON | Really, what can I say? When I made out my preseason All-Robio teams (below), I’ve never been more confident in a receiver like I was when I put Calvin on it. His only worry? The Madden Curse. Does it exist? It sure does.
VINCENT JACKSON | V-Jax may be the most inconsistent player in fantasy football. Here’s the simple mathematical problem here…in four games last year (weeks 2, 4, 9 and 11) V-Jax averaged a stunning 384 points (thanks to 27 catches, 586 yards, 7 touchdowns. In those 12 other games? He averaged 99 fantasy points per game, failing to break 100, seven times. In those games he caught just 33 balls for 520 yards and a single touchdown.
JERMICHAEL FINLEY | He has the perfect tight end build to be an elite fantasy tight end, but so far he has not lived up to the hype. His touchdown totals are fine, he just needs to be more active in the passing game between the 20’s.
LIONS DST | A reach at best. I’m not buying that they are a top-10 defense again this year. I think they played over their heads last year and the rough off-season will effect their play this season.
OFF THE PINE: Man, Calderon sure loves his Carolina backs. He grabs both Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Stewart is the better of the two, but ever time he’s handed the keys to the starting spot, he falters. My guess is they continue to step on each others shoes. Maybe he can pickup Mike Tolbert at some point. Michael Bush has great value if Matt Forte goes down, but I like Steven Ridley better. He’s a legit starting back, capable of putting up solid RB2 numbers. At the wide out spots, Rich got two receivers who are both the top targets on their respective teams (Rice and Washington). Of course those two teams are Seattle and Tennessee, so I’m not sure what that says.
IN THE END | We have another contender. The M&M boys that make up the backfield are the second best in the league (behind only Eric’s Rice/Forte). I even got his receivers as top-three, but that has a lot to do with Calvin Johnson. I think Rich will need to find a better defense and hopefully Vincent Jackson can become more consistent. Based on the start of the season, I think few teams are more prepared for injuries than Rich, thanks to a solid and deep bench. The X-Factor though is Eli. He’s not the QB who will deliver a 600-pt game, but he is the guy who could totally screw Rich in the quarters with a 200-yard, two interception game against a team the Giants should crush.
5. WILDCARD BITCHES! (BOB)
CAM NEWTON | Do you believe in a sophomore slump? I do. Two reasons I see Cam’s stats declining the second time around. Look for him to try to become a more polished passer, meaning less running. What made him so valuable last year was his running ability. Also, look for defensive coordinators to start figuring him out. They have a whole season’s worth of tape to look at. Just look at last year, Cam averaged 389 PPG in his first eight games. In his final eight games, he averaged 333 PPG. However, I think even that number doesn’t tell the whole story. In his final eight games, he faced a Tampa team that basically gave up twice. In those games he scored over 500 points both times. Eliminate those games and Cam averages just 270 PPG down the stretch.
RYAN MATHEWS | Man, this guy was set up heading into the season. The Chargers had shipped off both Sproles and Tolbert over the last two off-seasons, opening the door wide open for Mathews. So what does he do? He goes and breaks something in his shoulder. He’s out at least one week. The worst case scenario for Bob is that Ronnie Brown impresses enough in Mathews’ absence, that he steals carries away all season long. Personally, I’m not worried about it. I think Mathews comes back, gets about 18-25 carries a game and even leads the team in receiving. Stud.
DEZ BRYANT | The most shocking pick of the draft. As I’ve already documented, Dez is the most unaccomplished wide receiver taken in the first-round. The reality is, can you trust Bryant? Can you trust Romo to deliver the ball enough to him? I’m not so certain.
A.J. GREEN | Now this pick I like. I love that Bob passed on seasoned veterans (White, Johnson) to take the second-year stud. It’s clear Bob is rolling with the youngest team in the league. All but two starters (excluding kickers) are under 24 years of age (technically Green is older than Bryant, despite being in the league one less seasons). The veterans are Nelson and Tamme (both 27).
JORDY NELSON | There is no doubt Greg Jennings is still the man in Green Bay, but when you have Aaron Rodgers passing for over 5,000 yards in a season, there are plenty of stats to go around. Like Green and Bryant above him, Nelson has WR1 potential. Hell, he could already be there. This gives Bob the deadliest three-headed monster at wide receiver.
JACON TAMME | Sorry, I’m going to call this a ‘swing and a miss’. I’m just not buying that Tamme is again going to be elite TE because he’s got Peyton Manning throwing to him again. In fact, I’m not even sure Tamme is the best tight end on the Broncos right now.
BILLS DST | While I think the Bills’ D will improve, I still think they are a reach. The good news is, they face the Jets and the Fins twice this year.
OFF THE PINE | The star of the bench is Reggie Bush. Based on the end of season results from 2011, Bush is one of the better backs in football. In fact, Bob will be starting him in week one over an injured Mathews. Right now, I don’t think he’ll miss a beat. The problem is, once the season goes south for Miami, I suspect both Daniel Thomas and Lamar Thomas will get some looks as the Dolphins begin to plan for the future. Schaub is a solid backup QB, probably should be a starter somewhere. Hillis and Rodgers will get playing time this year, but both are insurance at best. Denarius Moore has the potential to be a decent WR2 in this league, although Manningham in Francisco bores me. The real sleeper may end up being Rashard Mendenhall. In the second-to-last round of the draft, Bob has a guy who could be a great keeper moving forward, but not for Bob, who should be keeping Cam another year in category three.
IN THE END | If I’m wrong about Cam, then Bob is a true threat to repeat yet again. I don’t think it’s a perfect roster, I just don’t trust three-wide in this league. It has failed more than it has succeeded. When I actually crunched my numbers, I had Bob’s team seventh, behind both Masterson and me, but Bob has proven to be a savvy in-season manager, so I had to move him up two spots based on that recent history. I easily smell playoffs with a chance to be hot at the end.
6. ROMOLICIOUS (ROBIO)
MATT RYAN | The league had to be shocked when I passed on Romo to take Matt Ryan. Trust me, it wasn’t easy. But if Julio Jones is the real deal and Roddy White remains Roddy White, how can Matt Ryan not take the logical step towards elite QB?
DARREN MCFADDEN | If healthy, there is no doubt in my mind McFadden is the best back in football. The problem is, this guy has never been able to stay healthy. I mean the guy missed 10 games last year due to a high ankle sprain.
MARSHAWN LYNCH | I’m a big believer in “Travis Henry” Syndrome. That’s when a veteran player comes out of nowhere around mid-season to become one of the best players in the league by season’s end (think Travis Henry’s circa 2006 or Antonio Bryant in 2008). The following year the team who has him, keeps him, expecting him to just continue how he left off the season before. Yet, they do nothing the following year, totally fucking you, because let’s face it, you designed your entire draft strategy around this guy. What I’m saying is, Marshawn Lynch just has the smell of one of those guys.
PERCY HARVIN | Did you know after Donovan McNabb was benched, Percy Harvin was a top-five wide receiver in this league last year? See, who says you don’t learn anything in Robioland?
RODDY WHITE | The guy had a bad year last year, yet he still finished 13th among all receivers. I don’t foresee him heading back to All-Robio status, but I’ll take somewhere in-between first-team All-Robio and 13th.
VERNON DAVIS | Towards the end of the season, Davis was producing Robert Gronkowski type numbers. If you count the 49ers two playoff games, Davis broke 200 in four of his last five games.
49ers DST | You like fun facts? The 49ers D finished 2nd behind only the Ravens last year in defensive scoring. Of the previous 12 teams that finished second, only once (the 2004-2005 Steelers D) did that team manage to finish in the top-3 the following year (the 2005 Steelers finished 3rd). The one problem I have with the defense I picked is that 2012’s schedule will be a lot tougher. In fact, I penciled in five games I won’t start them in. These include games against the Packers and Lions (to open the season), the Patriots, Saints and probably the Giants.
OFF THE PINE | I hate my bench. I did a terrible job projecting where players would land. Robert Griffin III could be a good sleeper, but after that, it’s hard to see a world where players like Evan Royster, Jon Baldwin and Santonio Holmes crack my starting lineup. If they do, I’m in trouble.
IN THE END | If I had this lineup (with the exception of an injured McFadden) I would have won the 2011 championship. Matt Ryan, Percy Harvin, Roddy White, Marshall Lynch and the 49ers D were all fantastic down the stretch. Matt Ryan in particular was as productive as anyone else, including Brees/Brady/Rodgers. Does that mean guarantee success in 2012? No, but if Lynch is the real deal and McFadden can stay on the field, I’m a solid team, capable of surprising teams come playoff time. However, I don’t see McFadden staying healthy and my receivers will be inconsistent. I’m a playoff team, capable of pulling off an upset in round one.
7. GLORY HOLE DAYS (ROB M)
TONY ROMO | He’s arguable an elite quarterback right now, at least in fantasy land. He runs a pass-first offense, completes a ton of passes for a ton of yards and a ton of touchdowns. So why would a Cowboys fan pass on him? First, I passed on him more because of what I think Ryan can do. The fact is, the two will probably produce the same numbers this year. However, here are my Romo concerns. Dallas offensive line is going to be bad. Second, Romo’s receivers are struggling to stay healthy. Third, Dallas’ schedule this season is brutal.
CHRIS JOHNSON | So far 2012 Johnson has looked a lot like 2011 Johnson. That’s bad news for Masterson. There is no more important player on the Glory Hole’s. He needs at least 1,400 yards rushing (another 400 receiving) and double-digit touchdowns to justify his first-round keep.
DOUG MARTIN | He’s suppose to be the next Ray Rice, which is fitting since his new head coach use to coach Ray Rice at Rutgers. Honestly though, I never would have thought Rob would actually take a rookie in the second round. The fact is, rookie backs aren’t great backs. Only 13 have broken 1,000 yards rushing in a season since 2002 and the last one to hit 1,400 yards was Clinton Portis back in 2002 (he actually broke 1,500). The good news for Martin is that he’s looked great in the preseason. He’s clearly the #1 guy over Blount, although I suspect he’ll lose goal line carries to him.
JULIO JONES | Man, people are giving a lot of love to this kid. I’ve seen 1,700 receiving yards thrown around. I don’t take those stats lightly. He’s suppose to be the next Calvin Johnson, but even Calvin Johnson took time to be great. He didn’t earn his first first-team All-Robio until last year.
MIKE WALLACE | He’s sort of the dark horse here. Both Doug Martin and Julio Jones are the X-factor’s on this team, but at least they are on their way up. So was Wallace, until about mid-season last year when he sort of went Awol, letting Antonio Brown take the lead in Pittsburgh. Through seven games last year, Wallace averaged 243 PPG. However, in his final nine games, he averaged just 120 PPG. That’s a huge drop off.
DUSTIN KELLER | On the one hand, Keller is clearly the best receiver on the Jets. Of course the bad news is, he’s the best pair of hands on the Jets. Looking at the new feature on your team page on CBS, it now tells you the players opponent’s ranking against that position. Against D’s, the Jets are ranked #32. Ouch.
JETS DST | At the very least, this gives Rob a reason to cheer during those brutal 10-7 Jets’ games. For the record, I’m predicting the Jets offense scores a touchdown on their opening drive of week one, then not again the rest of the game. Mark it down.
OFF THE PINE | Rob’s got an interesting bench. Mile Austin, if healthy, gives Rob the best bench wide receiver in the league. There is simply no downside to this. If he’s not healthy, no big deal, Jones/Wallace are the starters. If he pans out, great. I also like the idea of going young at running back. David Wilson is the future starter in New York (although I don’t know about this year). Mark Ingram and Daniel Thomas are very interesting. Both these backs were the hot rookies last year, but neither were able to do much of anything. Of the two, Thomas has the best shot to surprise everyone with a 1,000-yard season. I’m also a big fan of Jay Cutler coming off the bench and even though Rob didn’t draft him, I love the Jared Cook grab. Don’t be surprised if he doesn’t get more starts than Keller this year.
IN THE END | For Rob, he needs a lot of things that are expected to happen, to happen. Chris Johnson is expected to rebound from a rough 2011. Julio Jones is expected to make the leap to elite. Doug Martin is expected to be the next Ray Rice. The problem with expectations is…they aren’t always met. Just look at my life. I do expect two of those expectations to pay off though…Chris Johnson’s returns to greatness is the one I’m struggling with. Overall, Rob should return to the post-season and eight wins is not out of the question. However, I think a lack of true All-Robio players will keep him from a title.
8. VICK IN WHITE (MATT)
MATT STAFFORD | When I talk about elite quarterbacks, I typically talk about the three-headed monster of Brady/Brees/Rodgers. The fact is, based on last year’s numbers, you might as well add in Matt Stafford. Of the four of them, it’s Stafford who has Calvin Johnson. The reason I downgrade him just a bit is of those four quarterbacks, only Stafford has a long history with injuries. If he can stay on the field though (like he did last year), the dude is the bomb.
STEVEN JACKSON | Of all the first round picks, this is the one I disliked the most. I just think Jackson is old, I think the Rams offensive sucks, I think their passing game scares no one and even though I think Jackson is the teams best player, I think by season’s end, the Rams will be experimenting with a youth movement.
MICHAEL TURNER | Has there ever been a less sexier 1,300-yard back in league history? He gets no love, but just keeps producing. However, he’s turning 30 and word is the Falcons are about to go pass-happy in their offense.
GREG JENNINGS | He sort of keeps getting forgotten, but all Jennings does is produce top-10 seasons. He’s been second or third team All-Robio in three of the last four years. As the top target in the league’s top offense, there is little reason to believe he won’t do it again.
TONY GONZALEZ | Whereas Bob has the youngest starting lineup, Matt has decided to flip it. The average age of Matt’s starters is 28.7, led by 36-year-old Tony Gonzalez. Has Matt gone one year too far? Probably, but I would have said the same thing last year and I would have been wrong.
PATRIOTS DST | The Pats struggled last year early in the season, but got better as the year went along. Still, can you trust a coach who keeps putting wide receivers in the corner positions? Why can’t they just draft more cornerbacks?
OFF THE PINE | My biggest concern for Matt’s team is the health of his running backs. Thankfully for him, he drafted just about every other running back in the league. He has Cedric Benson, Willis McGahee, Mikel Leshoure and Shane Vereen. Did I miss any? If I had to pick a favorite, I actually go with McGahee. Yeah, Benson is more sexier, but really, when was the last time a running back was worth anything in Green Bay, a team that likes to pass the ball 60 times a game? Back in the day, Peyton Manning use to have a great back in Edgerrin James. McGahee is no young man, but he’s still got some juice left. I’m not sold on Lloyd in New England. Tom Brady has become a three-steps and throw quarterback, rarely looking deep down the sidelines. Wright has some solid potential in Tennessee, and this is the do or die year for Pettigrew in Detroit.
IN THE END | There are some great players on this squad, Stafford, Jennings, but more question marks. I think Matt will be playing a lot of running back shuffle and he’s probably going to lose a game or two because of a wrong decision. Right now, I have him sitting in the post-season, but in reality, teams 8-10 (Don, Matt, Burrier) will be fighting for that last playoff spot. Good luck, gentlemen.
9. TEAM 6 (RICH B)
DREW BREES | Can someone actually throw for 6,000 yards? Why not, 5,000 yards passing is the new 4,000. However, let’s keep things in check. Let’s not forget that Drew Brees and the Saints offense struggled in that one game Sean Peyton was out when he hurt his leg on the sideline .
FRANK GORE | Two years ago Frank Fore was the top pick in the draft (Colby), now I’m shocked he’s starting on someone’s roster. The 49ers are a running team and that’s good, but the backfield is getting awfully crowded. After Gore, you now have Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James and let’s not forget about Kendall Hunter.
RYAN WILLIAMS | I actually like this pick, even if it doesn’t really pay off the way Rich needs it to this year. We still don’t know who is going to be the starter in Arizona, but in the end, it will have to be Williams. We’ve seen what Beanie can do. We’re not impressed. It’s time to let the new kid in town have a shot.
LARRY FITZGERALD | Looking back, I don’t think Burrier did a smart move trading down just to draft Larry Fitzgerald, especially when you see that he could potentially had Fitzgerald with that second round pick. I wasn’t going to draft him (I prefer White) and it appears Bob had his mind set on Bryant/Green.
JEREMY MACLIN | Only time will tell if keeping Maclin over Torry Smith was the right call, but Maclin should be a consistent contributor all season. I still like him over DeSean Jackson in Philly.
ROBERT GRONKOWSKI | After his post-Superbowl dance act, his off-season clubbing tour and now there’s talk of a reality show, is there any player in the league more set up for a week one ACL tear?
STEELERS DST | There is still plenty of talent on this squad, but man do they have some age on them. They have seven starters over the age of 32. Wow.
OFF THE PINE | Toby Gerhart was an awful reach. I mean, your asking a lot if you’re using a fifth-round pick in anticipation of Peterson going down. However, of all of Rich’s backups, he’s the only one who maybe could help out for a game or two this season. I can’t say that about anyone else. Sure Andre Luck is the future, but he won’t play over Brees. Isaiah Pead was a popular sleeper, but again it relies on a starter (S-Jax) going down. Rookie TE’s don’t do much, so count out Coby Fleener and both Baldwin and LaFell bore me. Maybe both will come through with an occasional 6-catch, 80 yards, 1-TD game, but that will be their highlights. If anyone could make a real impact, it’s Titus Young. With Calvin Johnson keeping the D’s busy, Young should never face a double-team and the Lions will pass it around enough for him to get some solid yards.
IN THE END | He’s got some solid parts. Obviously, Drew Brees and Robert Gronkowski will lead the team. Those two alone could give Rich 600 points minimal per week. In fact, putting Gronk with Fitzgerald and Maclin and I believe Rich has the second best receiving trio in the league. It’s those damn running backs that will kill him. Gore and Williams will be the league’s worst backfield and I’m saying that even though I expect Williams to be decent down the stretch. Don’t be surprised if Titus (great name by the way) Young doesn’t get some starts as a third wide out. I think Burrier battles Matt and Don for that final playoff spot, but he’ll come up short in the total points tiebreaker.
10. GATOR NATION (DON)
MICHAEL VICK | Based purely on ability, Michael Vick is an elite fantasy quarterback, capable of putting up those 500-700 point miracles. The problem is, this isn’t Madden ’13 where I can turn off the injury mode. Vick struggles to stay on the field. In 12 preseason snaps, he was taken off the field for X-Rays twice.
FRED JACKSON | He’s sort of the forgotten man, because he’s A) in Buffalo and B) he ended the 2011 campaign on IR. What we shouldn’t forget is Fred Jackson was fantasy’s number one back prior to going down last year. He produced five 300-pt games. If he can hold off Spiller, he should remain a solid low-end RB1 in this league.
TRENT RICHARDSON | Are Florida Gators allowed to draft former Alabama players? Anyhow, I’m down on Richardson…by a lot. Two reasons…I watched Alabama play four times last year and each time I left less impressed by Richardson. He just looks slow to me. Some have called him the next A.P, but when I watch Peterson in college, I knew he was going to be a stud in the pros. I’ve never said that about Richardson. Second, the dude has had two off-season knee injuries. Is Don trying to draft an ALL-IR team?
MARQUES COLSTON | He can be a bit inconsistent at times (he failed to break 100 fantasy points four times last year), but he’s produced 1,000 yards in a season in five of his six seasons in this league. The one time he didn’t, he got hurt. With Robert Meachem out of New Orleans, I actually expect Colston’s numbers to improve this year.
ANDRE JOHNSON | Look, another health concern. Andre Johnson has missed at least three games a season in four of his nine seasons in the NFL, including the last two. Last year, he had two different injuries that cost him nine games. When healthy he’s still one of the elite backs, but can he be trusted to stay on the field?
FRED DAVIS | This one is tough. Last year Davis had a breakout year, recording seven 150+ games, before going out in week thirteen. Yet, can we just assume RGIII is going to target him like last year’s quarterbacks? At the very least, Chris Cooley is gone.
GIANTS DST | The G-Men were awful last year, but they should be healthier this year. I still don’t like the backfield, but between Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora, Don should see a lot of sacks.
OFF THE PINE | The big get was Shonn Greene. Yes, he’s in the Jets offense and Masterson doesn’t like him (so that should tell us something), but I think Greene could have a good year. The simple fact is this, they will be a running team and who else is going to steal carries from him, McKnight? After Greene, Freeman is a decent backup to Vick, but I see no reason to draft Brandon Weeden. Pierre Thomas is done. Don got a trio of respectable backup wide receivers. I don’t have faith Robinson can duplicate in Jacksonville what he did in Dallas. Heyward-Bey has the most long-term potential, but Boldin is probably the safest play each week.
IN THE END | I think there is a ton of talent on this team, but I can’t remember a team ever walking into a season with this many players with injury concerns. Four players missed at least three games last year, three of which didn’t finish 2011. This doesn’t even include double-knee surgery Richardson. If healthy, I love this team. I’d even put Don in the bottom of the tier one. While I hate to predict injuries, how can I not with this squad. I just don’t see either Vick or A-John playing a full 16. I just don’t see how Richardson’s knee issues don’t come up during the season. In the end, Don’s eight-year playoff run comes to an end…barely.
11. MOLLIPOP (MOLLY)
AARON RODGERS – It all starts up top with Rodgers. With him at quarterback, Molly is really never out of a game. It’s a quarterback league and he’s the lead dog. Do I really think he can’t make his 440+ points per game average or am I just hoping he won’t?
ROY HELU | Listen, I think he’s the best back on the Redskins team. He actually reminds me of a bigger Terrell Davis, but the problem is, can you trust Mike Shanahan? All it will take is one bad game by Helu or some sprained ankle and the next thing you know Royster or Hightower or who knows who else ends up as the starter in Washington.
ADRIAN PETERSON | Ballsy pick from a women with no balls (as far as I know). Here’s the fact, I can’t think of a running back in league history that has tore up his ACL in the final week of a season and returned the next year healthy and ready to play. It’s never happened before. Remember Wes Welker, he tore his ACL in the final game of the 2009 season. He came back the next season, but was never healthy. The 2010 season was the only one of his last five where he didn’t break 1,000 yards receiving.
VICTOR CRUZ | I’ll always believe Molly should have kept Jimmy Graham over Cruz, but that’s never been a strike against Cruz. I think he’s a stud and I expect him to remain Eli’s best target. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t finish the season as a WR1.
DWAYNE BOWE | This pick I like. Bowe was holding out, thus he slipped to the fourth round of our draft. While he’ll probably have a tough start to the season, this is a classic 80 catch, 1,000-yard receivers. The problem is, he was supposed to become a 100-catch, 1,300 yard guy, but he continues to struggle with consistency.
JIMMY GRESHAM | Molly should learn a hard truth early…Jimmy Greshman is no Jimmy Graham.
TEXAS DST | Last year the Texans exploded onto the scene as the number two ranked D in football. However, led by Mario Williams defection to Buffalo, I think they will struggle to duplicate it again.
OFF THE PINE: Are there any saviors on this bench? Of her three backs, LeGarrette Blount, Felix Jones and Isaac Redman, only Redman is coming out of the preseason as a starter. Both Blount and Jones will need injuries by others to be worth anything. Redman may be the starter in week one, but based on his career rushing totals and his awful preseason, I’m not sure how long he holds on to it. Flacco isn’t bad, but he won’t ever start over Rodgers and I can’t see him ever being good enough to be trade bait. Kenny Britt hasn’t been arrested 28 times and is coming off an ACL injury…that’s not a good combo. Of all the reserves, Brett Celek will probably make the most impact.
IN THE END: I’m probably making a big mistake keeping the teams led by Brees (Burrier) and Rodgers (Molly) out of the post-season. With Rodgers, Cruz and arguable Bowe, there is talent on this team, but man are those question marks huge? Can Peterson get healthy, can Helu hold on to the starting job, were the Texans D a fluke last year? Too many questions if you ask me.
12. SPIDER TWO WIDE BANANA (JEFF)
ANDY DALTON | Wow, I never thought anyone in this league would have game planned to have Andy Dalton as their starting quarterback. The Bengals’ QB had a solid rookie campaign, finishing 15th among all quarterbacks. Still, do we see Dalton cracking the top-10 this year? I don’t.
MAURICE JONES-DREW | Jeff got the best news on Sunday when he learned that MJD ended his hold out. Man, if he didn’t report, that could have been awful for Jeff. The problem is, it’s not like he’s going to be able to step out in week one and be effective. The question is, how many weeks will it take him? Last year Chris Johnson held out and he never got it going.
DARREN SPROLES | I should be a believer, but I’m not. I just can’t trust the Saints offense. If he can get the same amount of touches as he did last year (163), then he could be a solid high-end RB2, but you just never know.
ERIC DECKER | I actually like the Eric Decker pick. I did think it was a round too early, but in the end, if I had to pick one receiver from Denver to breakout, it would be Decker. In reality, I think both Thomas and Decker will have good years, but I’m picking Decker to produce the most catches and touchdowns, while Thomas will lead in yards.
STEVE JOHNSON | An okay receiver. That’s about all I can say. He’s coming off a 1,000-yard season, but when you watch him play and watch Ryan Fitzgerald throwing the ball, it’s hard to imagine him ever breaking 1,300 yards in a season, the yards that would make him a stud.
AARON HERNANDEZ | Would you like a bold prediction…Aaron Hernandez will out-produce Robert Gronkowski. There I said it, but I’m not ever going to repeat it though.
EAGLES DST | Overrated. To stop the run, the Eagles added a whole bunch of rookies, a couple who should start right away. Good luck with that, because last year they couldn’t stop a paraplegic monkey from gaining five yards per carry.
OFF THE PINE | Here is where I give Jeff some props and some hope. I love his bench. Ryan Fitzgerald can run hot or cold, but when hot, he’s a pretty solid fantasy quarterback. I could argue he’s better than Dalton. Ahmad Bradshaw was a nice insurance policy, who may be Jeff’s best back out of the gate. Someone’s got to be the star receiver in San Diego and Floyd has some history with Rivers. Lance Moore doesn’t blow my mind, but with Meacham gone in New Orleans, Moore could benefit. Pierre Garcon is in D.C. now and once RGIII gets his touch down on the long ball, Garcon could put up some solid numbers. However, my favorite pick is Torrey Smith. He has looked fantastic in the preseason and he might be ready to be the true WR1 in Baltimore.
IN THE END | Jeff was in a tough spot this year. His keepers were all players who over-performed last year and only Hernandez is a sure thing to repeat his stats. He also had the third pick, which means he missed out on sure-thing picks Rice/McCoy. I can easily see 2-3 players on his bench starting for him by mid-season, but in the end, the failure of not getting a quarterback is going to hurt. If anything has been proven in this league, it’s that you can’t win without a solid arm. He’s finishing last. The good news is, that means Arian Foster is his for the taking next year.
POSITION RANKINGS
QUARTERBACKS & DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS Rank:Team:Quarterback:Defense/S.T. Points: 1.ColbyTom BradyRavens DST590 points 2. MollyAaron RodgersTexans DST589 points 3. Rich BDrew BreesBears DST556 points 4.MattMatt StaffordPatriots DST543 points 5. RobioMatt Ryan49ers DST522 points 6.BobCam Newton Bill DST506 points 7.GriffPeyton ManningPackers DST495 points 8.DonMichael VickGiants DST494 points 9.Rob MTony RomoJets DST490 points 10.EricP. RiversBears DST485 points 11.Rich CE. ManningLions DST477 points 12.JeffAndy DaltonEagles DST425 points
RUNNING BACKS Rank:Team:Running Back #1Running Back #2Total Points: 1.EricRay RiceMatt Forte427 points 2.Rich CLeSean McCoyDeMarco Murray391 points 3. GriffArian FosterDonald Brown379 points 4. RobioDarren McFaddenMarshawn Lynch359 points 5.Rob MChris JohnsonDoug Martin358 points 6.DonFred JacksonTrent Richardson353 points 7.BobRyan MathewsDez Bryant*352 points 8.JeffMaurice Jones-DrewDarren Sproles348 points 9.MattSteven JacksonMichael Turner348 points 10.ColbyJamaal CharlesBen Green-Ellis315 points 11.MollyAdrian PetersonRoy Helu278 points 12.Rich BFrank GoreRyan Williams271 points
WIDE RECEIVERS & TIGHT ENDS Rank:Team:Wide Receive #1:Wide Receiver #2:Tight End:Total Points: 1.GriffWes WelkerAntonio BrownJimmy Graham521 points 2.Rich BLarry FitzgeraldJeremy MaclinRob Gronkowski498 points 3.Rich CCalvin JohnsonVincent JacksonJermichael Finley 495 points 4.RobioRoddy WhitePercy HarvinVernon Davis472 points 5.DonAndre JohnsonMarques ColstonFred Davis462 points 6.ColbyHakeem NicksBrandon MarshallAntonio Gates459 points 7.EricSteve SmithDemaryius ThomasJason Witten454 points 8.Rob MJulio JonesMike WallaceDustin Keller442 points 9.MattGreg JenningsDeSean JacksonTony Gonzalez430 points 10.MollyVictor CruzDwayne BoweJermaine Gresham426 points 11.BobA.J. GreenJordy NelsonJacob Tamme421 points 12.JeffEric DeckerSteve JohnsonAaron Hernandez417 points
PRESEASON ALL-ROBIO FIRST, SECOND & THIRD-TEAMS
FIRST-TEAM ALL-ROBIO
QUARTERBACK – Aaron Rodgers, GB (Molly) He won’t match his record breaking 2011 numbers, but he’s still the best points producer in fantasy football.
RUNNING BACK – Arian Foster, HOU (Griff) He earned second-team All-Robio despite missing two games, losing carries to Ben Tate and having a third-string quarterback in the backfield for the final quarter of the season. Just imagine what can do if things go right this season.
RUNNING BACK – Darren McFadden, OAK (Robio) It’s all about the health. If (and that’s a huge “if”) he can play 16 full games, he’s the best back in football.
WIDE RECEIVER – Calvin Johnson, DET (Rich C) How about this for a prediction? 1,600 total yards and 19 touchdowns. Write it down, folks.
WIDE RECEIVER – Victor Cruz, NYG (Molly) I’m a big believer in the Cruz. I don’t believe his 1,500-yard season last year was a fluke.
TIGHT END – Jimmy Graham, NO (Griff) Graham was the first tight end to ever be drafted in the first round of the draft…for good reason too.
DST – Ravens D, BAL (C0lby) The 49ers early season schedule is tough, so I bump the Ravens to number one.
KICKER – David Akers, SF (Don) Don deserves to earn a first-team kicker. It would be his third first-team All-Robio kicker.
SECOND-TEAM ALL-ROBIO
QUARTERBACK – Tom Brady, NE (Colby) What, you think the Patriots are going to waste a lot of time handing the ball off to Steven Ridley?
RUNNING BACK – Ray Rice, BAL (Eric) Rice still needs to improve his touchdown totals. He still gets stuffed too often on the goal line. This will once again keep him off the first-team.
RUNNING BACK – Matt Forte, CHI (Eric) Yep, Eric’s starting backfield holds down the entire backfield of the second-team All-Robio’s.
WIDE RECEIVER – A.J. Green, CIN (Bob) I absolutely love this kid. I do not expect any sophomore slump from the AFC’s best receiver.
WIDE RECEIVER – Roddy White, ATL (Robio) Julio Jones is getting a lot of props and a ton of press, but for at least one more year, White is the Falcons’ best receiver.
TIGHT END – Rob Gronkowski, NE (Rich B) It’s really a coin flip for first team tight end, Gronkowski or Graham, Graham or Gronkowski?
DST – Giants D, NY (Don) The G-Men should be healthy this year and I expect them to lunch against the weaker teams.
KICKER – Dan Bailey, DAL (Robio) With Dallas’ offensive line problems, I expect Bailey to get plenty of attempts.
THIRD-TEAM ALL-ROBIO
QUARTERBACK – Matt Stafford, DET (Matt) Yep, I’m putting Stafford over to pass Brees. It’s going to be that kind of year. It helps to have Calvin Johnson.
RUNNING BACK – LeSean McCoy, PHI (Rich C) Like I always, McCoy’s numbers will be hurt as Michael Vick gets hurt.
RUNNING BACK – Ryan Mathews, SD (Bob) Yeah, I got him here even though I think he’ll miss a game or two to start the season.
WIDE RECEIVER – Antonio Brown, PIT (Griff) I’m a believer. It certainly helped that Wallace held out.
WIDE RECEIVER – Julio Jones, WR (Rob M) Yes, I think the Falcons will produce two 1,200-yard receivers, that’s why I drafted Matt Ryan.
TIGHT END – Vernon Davis, TE (Robio) Here’s the problem…the difference between Davis (and every other tight end) and the top two (Graham and Gronkowski) is a lot.
DST – 49ers D, SF (Robio) Sure I’ll pull them when they play teams like the Packers and Saints, but against most anyone else, count them in.
KICKER – Sebastian Janikowski, OAK (Rich C) Nobody makes moe 50-yard field goals than Janikowski.
ALL-BENCH TEAM
QUARTERBACK – Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (Rich C)
RUNNING BACK – Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG (Jeff)
RUNNING BACK – Shoon Green, NYJ (Don)
WIDE RECEIVER – Reggie Wayne, IND (Eric)
WIDE RECEIVER – Torrey Smith, BAL (Jeff)
TIGHT END – Dallas Clark, TE (Griff)
DEFENSE – Broncos, DST (Rob M)
FINAL STANDINGS
1. Eric…10-3 2. Colby…9-5 3. Griff…9-5 4. Rich C…8-6 5. Bob…7-6 6. Robio…7-6 7. Rob M…7-6 8. Matt…6-7 9. Don…6-7 10. Rich B…5-8 11. Molly…4-9 12. Jeff…2-12
PLAYOFFS PREDICTIONS
Note: These are just for fun. In the future when I talk about my preseason favorite, it will be Eric.
QUARTERFINALS
#6 Robio over #3 Griff There is one guarantee in Robioland…Griff always loses to me in the post-season.
SEMI-FINALS
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