It’s on. We got two Rich’s, two Rob’s (for the first time since 2006), two Coomers and a Bob. The league has two Vozzola’s, but only one made it to the playoffs. Only three teams have won titles over the last six years, but two of them (Don, Matt) are sitting outside, looking in. Speaking of being on the outside, for the second time since Colby and Jeff were broken up, both missed the playoffs together.
Anyhow, six of the playoff teams have tasted the finals before, but only four have brought home a title in this league. How strong is the top of the class? We got a guy (Eric) who became only the fourth person in league history to average over 1,500, yet he only managed to earn the three-seed. That’s what happens when your top three (Griff, Calderon, Eric) go a solid 29-10 on the season. Still, let’s not forget, the rest of us aren’t pushovers. For only the second time in league history, the top-eight scoring teams all made it to the playoffs. Also, in the first round, we actually have two match ups that feature former title game match ups, Griff/Burrier who faced off in 2003 and Robio/Molly, who faced off in 2002.
Oh yeah, did I forget to mention that we have a guy (Bob) trying to become the first back-to-back-to-back champion in league history?
No. 1 THE GOOCH BRUISERS vs. No. 8 0O0O0
HISTORY: Griff earns his second career top seed (the last time since 2004). He’s produced four straight 9-win seasons now, but let’s not forget, he hasn’t won a playoff game since 2009. However, he is third all-time in winning percentage (.609) with a 14-9 record in the post-season, including a solid 7-3 record in the first round. He”s been to the finals six times, winning his only title in 2005.
For Burrier, this is the fourth time in six seasons he’s made it to the playoffs, but this is the third time he’s been the 8 seed. As we all know, he ended his seven-year playoff win drought last year, by going to the finals. He’s 5-6 in the post-season for his career, going 2-5 in the quarterfinals. He won his only title in his second year, way back in 2003.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Griff beat Burrier back in week five, 1491 – 1235. Griff leads the career series, 8-6 and has actually owned Rich of late. After Rich won four of the first five, Griff has now won seven of the last eight, dating back to 2007. However, they’ve met only once in the post-season and that was in the 2003 championship game, won by Rich, 2,011 – 1,036. That’s still the only time a team has broken 2,000 in a title game.
GRIFF, DEEP THOUGHTS: Griff won ten games this year and in half of them he had the weekly high score. Bad ass. He’s got a solid four All-Robio players, two on the second team (Foster, Graham) and two on the third team (Spiller, Manning). This foursome is as good as any in the league. This doesn’t even take into account Wes Welker, who has five 200+ games. While there are questions at defense (the Packers struggle from time to time) and at WR2 (Who can be the man, Crabtree, Williams, Blackmon or Brown?), but with that wicked fcursome, these are minor detail. In the end though, the key is Spiller. With Fred Jackson going down, Spiller become a star. The problem is, can the Bills be trusted? For instance, this past week, we were told Spiller would get 60% the carries, yet he struggled and Jackson ended up with 25 carries to Spillers’ 14 touches. Spiller needs to be the man in Buffalo for Griff to keep on rolling.
RICH B, DEEP THOUGHTS: Who ships off Drew Brees to start Andrew Luck? Well, Rich does and at least for a week it was the best decision Rich has made in years. In reality, the trick of the trade was landing Jamal Charles. When the trade was made, Charles was a real risk. It was simple, he was a running back on the worst offense in football. Since the trade though, Charles has delivered a solid 198 PPG and that’s with only one touchdown. Charles along side with Frank Gore may not be as good as Griff’s Foster/Spiller, but you know what, it’s not that far off.
Still, there are problems. First, no Gronkowski. That’s a huge loss. Dallas Clark is a nice pick up (he seems to be clicking lately with Freeman), but he can never fill the stat sheet like Gronk. Rich also had to finally bench Larry Fitzgerald, the fourth pick in the draft. That’s tough to overcome. Danario Alexander has been a huge pick up (question, why would Burrier ever bench him?), but I don’t know who steps up between Nicks and Maclin.
QUARTERFINALS PREDICTION:
If you asked me to pick between Rich’s current team and Griff’s current team each week this past season, I probably would have picked Griff 13 times. However, this week scares me. The last time I was this scared was the 2006 title game. Back then my team would have dominated Don’s team each and every week of the season, but in that title game, I looked at my player’s opponents and said, “oh shit.” Well, I took a look at Griff’s opponents and said, “oh shit” and I’m not even talking about those silly opponent rankings CBS provides. Outside of Manning vs the Raiders, I don’t like the match ups. Foster against the Pats, Spiller against a tough Rams D, Welker against a mean Texans D, Graham against the Giants. It’s not that I have that much faith in Burrier’s roster, I don’t. I just have to pick one upset in the first round and this week Griff looks vulnerable. If he can get past this weekend, he’s probably the favorite, I just don’t think he survives the weekend and will become the fifth number one seed to fall in round one.
WINNER: 0O0O0 stuns The Gooch Bruisers, 1,202 – 1,184
No. 2 THE DICK-TATERS vs. No. 7 YOUNG, DUMB & FULL OF CAM
HISTORY: Calderon is back in the playoffs after a one-year absence, producing his first 10-win regular season ever. This makes four playoff trips in his last five seasons. He’s also in a spot that is starting to look familiar, the two seed. This is the third time in the last five years he’s been the two-seed. However, and there’s always a however, Rich is 0-2 in the post-season as the second seed, never escaping the first round. In both those cases, he lost to 7 seed Don.
For Bob, with Don failing to get to the post-season for the first time in eight years, he’s now has the longest active playoff streak at seven straight years. It’s those seven years that have made him the league’s all-time greatest player (at least according to me). He’s also aiming for his seventh straight 9-win season (regular and post). If he’s going to do it, he’s going to have to earn it by taking home the title. Of course that’s what we said last year when he barely got into the post-season as a 6-7 team, but he managed to win it all as the 7-seed. Overall in the playoffs, Bob has three championships, including the last two. He also has the best winning percentage, .750 (12-4) in the playoffs, winning six straight. He’s 6-1 in the first-round (his last first-round loss was in 2008).
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Rich beat Bob in their only meeting this year back in week nine, 1,464 – 1,313. Overall, Rich and Bob are 5-5 against each other since they joined the league in 2003. However, while Bob dominated the early years, going 4-1 in their first five, Rich is 4-1 against Bob since 2008. In the post-season, these two have met just once, way back n 2004. Back then Bob defeated Calderon in the semis, 1,239 – 965, in route to his first title.
RICH C, DEEP THOUGHTS: There is no hotter team entering the post-season. Eli is working it and his receivers (Calvin Johnson and Vincent Jackson are both All-Robio level studs). Also, Broncos DST is probably the best free agent defensive pick up of the year. However, here’s the problem with picking for or against Calderon…who is he going to start each week at running back over the next three weeks? DeMarco Murray is back, so Reece goes back to the bench, right? Bryce Brown is a must-start. Yes, he’s fumbling too much, but the dude is a speed demon. He’s produced a 372-point and 390-point game. And no, those numbers are not a miss-print.
The big, big, absolutely huge question is, what happens if LeSean McCoy comes back? If he comes back, he’s the starter right, but won’t he and Brown share carries? In a perfect world for Rich, McCoy takes the year off and Rich rides a Brown/Murray backfield to his first championship.Of course, even if McCoy does come back, Rich is so fucking deep, he can then just put in Steven Ridley. Dangerously deep.
BOB, DEEP THOUGHTS: Last year, Bob went into the quarters as a complete underdog, facing Masterson, who averaged over 1,500 on the season. Well, Masterson did score 1,623, but Bob scored two points more. Does he have the magic to do it again? There have been some real positive signs lately. First, Cam Newton is starting to shine, producing back-t0-back 500-point games. Second, Dez Bryant has really begun to step it up. He’s produced a stunning three straight 300-point games. I would argue that, while Calderon’s threesome of Eli Manning, Calvin Johnson and Vincent Jackson are pretty damn good, Bob’s threesome of Newton, Bryant and A.J. Green are actually better (at least with the way they’ve been playing of late). Throw in a Seahawks D against the awful Cardinals and Owen Daniels at tight end and you could argue Bob is better at five positions.
The problem is, Bob’s running backs have been awful this year. Ryan Mathews hasn’t broken 140 since week five. Reggie Bush? Over the last seven weeks he has produced two games of 168 and 194, but he’s also produced 88, 60, 8, 46 and 98 this past week. With Jordy Nelson out again, Bob will need to either start these two or Knowshon Moreno. If he gets desperate he could ride the Panthers’ bandwagon and start Brandon LaFell.
QUARTERFINALS PREDICTION:
I would love to pick an upset here. If history has taught me anything, do not underestimate what Bob can do. Also, never underestimate the egg Calderon can lay. You don’t earn the title of “best team to never win a championship” without having a few great teams faltering. The fact is, Bob’s best pieces are playing their best ball right now, but I just can’t overlook those running backs. Hell, Bryce Brown could probably out-score all of Bob’s running backs by himself. That’s what will make the difference in this game.
WINNER: The Dick-Taters over Young, Dumb & Full of Cam, 1,610 – 1,472
No. 3 TEBOW’S BEFORE HOES vs. No. 6 GLORY HOLE DAYS
HISTORY: Eric is making just his fourth playoff appearance in 12 seasons of Robioland. However, all four of those trips have come in the last year. While he missed out on earning his first top-seed ever, Eric won nine games (a career best). This is also his first top-three finish and he easily earned his first scoring title. Of course, as it is well known, Eric is still searching for that elusive first playoff win. He’s 0-3, never escaping the first round.
For Masterson to make the playoffs this year is a minor miracle. He becomes the first 1-5 team to rally for a playoff birth since the switch to the 13-game schedule. However, Rob’s comeback was so swift, he could have done it in a 10-game season. Now Rob has had some struggles in this league, but it is still surprising to learn that this is the first time since 2004 that Rob has gone to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. Even more shocking, this is the first time he’s had back-to-back winning seasons (9-4 last year, 7-6 this year) EVER. It’s just his fourth winning season in 11 years, although three of those four have come in the last four seasons. Overall, this is Rob’s seventh appearance in the post-season. He’a comes in as the sixth seed, which is the highest seed Rob has ever had (he was also the 6 seed back in 2009). Masterson is just 3-6 in the post-season though. He’s 3-3 in the first round, but 0-3 in the semis. He’s never seen the title game. He actually hasn’t won a playoff game since 2006, but he does have the second best scoring average in the post-season (1,468). The problem is, his opponents have the highest scoring average at 1,494 points per game.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Back in week nine, Masterson and Eric had one of the best games of the year. Eric scored 1,672 points, but still lost to Masterson, 1,779 – 1,672. Eric’s losing total was the most points scored in defeat this season and the 12th most ever. Rob leads the career series 8-4 and has actually won five straight against Lil’ E, dating back to 2007.
ERIC, DEEP THOUGHTS: Earlier in the year, Eric had more 1,600+ games than not (three of his first five). However, his team has definitely slipped lately, breaking 1,600 just twice in his last eight contests. Obviously some of that can be blamed on bye-weeks. Mid-season tends to provide the scoring dips. Lets not forget though, sandwiched around his 1,860-point game in week twelve is a 1,214-point game in week 11 and 1,298 points last week. Those are the kind of numbers that get you knocked out of the first-round. For him, the key will be Tom Brady. When he scores a lot, Eric wins. When he doesn’t, Eric doesn’t. In the post-season, Brady has two tough match ups, both at home, against the Texans defense and the 49ers Defense. If Brady and Eric can get by those match ups, then things are lining up nicely with the Jaguars D in week sixteen.
Outside of Brady, the trick for Eric all season long is how amazingly healthy he has been. Outside of one game missed by a former player, Matt Forte, none of Eric’s starters and key backups have missed time due to injury. That’s unheard of. With that in mind, Eric remains stacked. As the weather turns cold in the last month of the season, look for both Ray Rice and Alfred Morris to get more touches. If either fails to score at least 200 in any game, I’d be shocked. At wide receiver, Eric’s riding with Demaryius Thomas and Reggie Wayne. While these two don’t get the props like Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green, with these two, Eric has a second team (Thomas) and a third-team (Wayne) All-Robio player. Also, don’t forget about Jason Witten, who since finally getting over his preseason injury, has become one of the best tight ends in football again.
The only real question mark for Eric is at defense. The Bears had been so dominant all season long. In fact, they were on pace to become the first 300 PPG defense in league history, but twice in the last three weeks, they’ve been crushed, putting up 29 points against the 49ers (with a QB in his first career start) and then two weeks later producing just 46 points against the Seahawks, at home, against a rookie quarterback. Now word is, Brian Urlacher may be done for the regular season. This is something to look out for.
ROB M, DEEP THOUGHTS: Who can you trust? That’s basically the theme of the 2012 Glory Hole Days. Rob’s got talent, there’s no doubt about that. But the problem is, any player on his team could produce a 30-point game tomorrow and you wouldn’t think twice about it. Of course they could all produce a 250 point game as well.
Starting up top, Tony Romo has been one of the more frustrating quarterbacks this season. Now he’s seem to have broken out lately, producing two straight 400+ games, but couldn’t you see him throwing four picks against the Bengals this weekend? Then there’s Chris Johnson. Oh man, Chris fucking Johnson. After an awful start to the season, there was a five-week period where he was one of the best backs in football, but over the last three weeks, his stats have gone down (280, 172, 68). He’s got some favorable match ups down the stretch, but who he plays has never really dictate what he’s done. At least Rob has Doug Martin, the first rookie RB to earn first-team All-Robio since Edgerrin James in 1999. Since the second half of the season, he’s been arguable the best back in football (although I’d give the nod to Adrian Peterson).
At wide receiver, Julio Jones may be ranked the 11th best wide receiver, but he has certainly struggled to be an every week player. He has averaged 270 PPG in his six best games this year, but just 81 PPG in his other six. WR2 has been a sore spot for Rob all year, but it appears he might have finally solved it with a healthy Pierre Garcon. It is quite clear that RGII has a favorite target and it ain’t Santana Moss.
QUARTERFINALS PREDICTION: Against me, Molly, Bob, Burrier or even Griff, I’d hand the win to Masterson. However, I think the sleeping giant that is Eric’s team is about to wake up. I’ve been picking LIl’ E’s team all season long and I’m not about to change that pick here in the quarterfinals. There is just not enough consistency on Rob’s team. I don’t know who is starting TE will be and I’m not even willing to trust the Jets D against the Jaguars and Chad Henne. Besides, this is Rob, you know he’s going to be the highest scoring loser now that the playoffs have started. WINNER: Tebow’s Before Hoes over Glory Hole Days, 1,728 – 1,542
No. 4 ROMOLICIOUS vs. No. 5 MOLLIPOP
HISTORY: After a 5-0 start, I ended up dropping five of my last seven, twice ‘earning’ the weekly low score. By getting back into the playoffs this year, I continue my streak of never missing the playoffs in back-to-back seasons. This is my 10th playoff appearance in 14 years and my ninth winning season. Oddly, this is the first time I’ve been a 4 seed. In the post-season, I’ve been one of the more successful teams. I’m 17-6, first in scoring average. I’m a stud-like 8-1 in the first-round and 6-1 in the semis. The last three times I’ve been in the playoffs, I have made it to the finals all three times, losing all three times in the title game.
Molly produces her seventh winning season in 11 years in Robioland. This is the second time she’s been a 5 seed. She’s just 3-7 in the post-season though, winning just once playoff game (a 982-850 stinker against Eric) since 2003 (going 1-6 after reaching the finals in her first season). Outside of Eric, no team has scored less points in the playoffs than Molly.
HEAD-TO-HEAD: Way back when I was good and Molly was still trying to get her footing back in week three, I easily beat her, 1,432 – 842. Overall, I’m 9-4 against Molly, winning four of our last five dating back to 2010. We have faced off once in the post-season, way back in 2002. As the 2 seed, I beat 1 seed Molly, 1,841 – 1,112.
ROBIO, DEEP THOUGHTS: It’s hard to remember the last time a team fall into a playoff spot like mine is right now. For the second year in a row, what seemed like minor injuries has cost me multiple games by two of my biggest contributors (Darren McFadden and Percy Harvin). Without them, I’ve dropped five of seven and the only reason it wasn’t six of seven was because Calderon lost to be when Big Ben was knocked out of a game early in the third quarter.
The fact is, without them, I’m done. I drafted zero depth and I haven’t been able to secure anyone solid off the wire. With no money, I missed out on studs popping up late in the season (Bryce Brown and Moreno to name a couple). Worse yet, my tight end, Vernon Davis, after looking like an All-Robio for the first part of the season has basically disappeared from the 49ers offense, He has just 17 catches in his last eight games, getting shut out twice. I’m going to have to bench him, right?
This leaves me riding Matt Ryan, Marshawn Lynch, Roddy White and the 49ers D, but as we’ve seen, they have not been consistent enough to get me wins. The fact is, unless McFadden and Harvin come back, I’m done. Since week seven, I’ve produced two weekly low scores, failed to break 1,000 for the first time this last week and I’ve lost to 2-11 Jeff and 3-10 Colby.
MOLLY, DEEP THOUGHTS: If you’re still tweaking your lineup in the first round of the playoffs, you got troubles. This past weekend, Molly finally broke her mini-funk with a solid win over Jeff. However, has she finally figured things out or is this one game masking a bad situation. Just prior to week thirteen, Molly failed to score 1,000 in back-to-back games and was riding a three-game losing streak.
The fact is, she’s still having trouble with her RB2 (i.e. flex spot). For a while, Denarius Moore looked like the guy, but he faltered (no 100-point games in his last three outings). For a brief moment LaRod Stephens-Howling looked like a second-half sleeper (a 310 and 278 point game), but after Beanie Wells came back, he’s gotten just two carries. Cue Beanie Wells, who had a nice first game back. Molly inserted him into her lineup and he delivers 15 carries and 22 yards. Worse yet, Molly now has to figure out what she’s going to do at wideout. She’s got Victor Cruz, but with Bowe struggling, she finally benched him. Now she ha to decide between him, Moore, Britt or Hilton. The latter looked good this week (six catches, 100 yards).
Still, this ship is run by three huge forces, Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson and the Texans D. All three are vying for All-Robio, combining to score 799 points per game. In fact, Adrian Peterson will probably earn MVP with the way he’s running the ball. To win three straight to win a mug, she’s going to need her three-headed monster to not falter any week down the stretch.
QUARTERFINALS PREDICTION: It’s one of those situations where it’s a bit unfair. Molly and I are two of the coolest teams entering the playoffs, but my hot start and her productive mid-season has us sitting 4/5 in the post-season. In a perfect world, I would have love to get McFadden and Harvin back this past week, so they could each get their sea legs back, but that didn’t happen. Even today, I’m still not sure Harvin will be back and McFadden will have to share carries with Reese. Look for Molly’s big three (Rodgers, Peterson and Texans D) to dominate in what will be a low-scoring affair. WINNER: Mollipop over Romolicious, 1,146 – 1,032
FULL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
QUARTERFINALS No. 8 0O0O0 over No. 1 The Gooch Bruisers, 1,202 – 1,184 Since I’m picking against Griff in the first-round, this actually means he’s going to win it all easily, right?
No. 2 The Dick-Taters over No. 7 Young, Dumb & Full of Cam, 1,610 – 1,472 Bryce Fucking Brown > Bush/Mathews/Moreno
No. 3 Tebow’s Before Hoes over No. 6 Glory Hole Days, 1,728 – 1,542 Prediction: Every Eric non-PK player scores over 200. Prediction: Three of Rob’s players break 300, three don’t break 100.
No. 5 Mollipop over No. 4 Romolicious, 1,146 – 1,032 If Darren McFadden was ever going to make up for the shit he put me through the past two years, this is the time. He won’t.
SEMI-FINALS No. 2 The Dick-Taters over No. 8 oO0O0, 1,864 – 842 Rich vs. Rich, but only one Rich shows up. Gore looks old, TE Clark gets shutout, Burrier’s receivers catch a total of three balls, blow out.
No. 3 Tebow’s Before Hoes over No. 5 Mollipop, 1,314 – 1,002 After delivering Eric his first playoff victory the previous week, his boys take the foot off the gas a bit. Luckily for him, he’s facing Molly and not Calderon.
TITLE GAME No. 3 Tebow’s Before Hoes over No. 2 The Dick-Taters, 1,498 – 920. Calderon has all the ‘mo, but Eli throws three picks against the Ravens, while LeSean McCoy comes back, sending Bryce back to the bench. Meanwhile both Calvin Johnson and Vincent Jackson have their worst games of the year and just like every year, Rich’s team has their absolute worst game at the worst possible time. The game is not even close.
2012 LEAGUE CHAMPION: Eric Vozzola, Tebow’s Before Hoes. With the championship, Eric finally gets moved out of last place in Robio’s team rankings. He’ll move up from 12th to 11th, ahead of Jeff.
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