Here are some “quick hits” as Don Banks would say regarding the 2012 Robioland Fantasy Football Draft.
ROUND ONE
The first-round went pretty much to script. While my mock draft didn’t nail all of the first nine picks (I got six of nine), if I was given two choices, I would have gone nine for nine. However, I probably couldn’t have guessed Colby’s pick, but I certainly wasn’t surprised after many, many, many pre-draft conversations with him that he took Jamaal Charles. In fact, I thought we would escape with no surprises in round one, but then Bob floored me when he grabbed DEZ BRYANT with the final pick of the first round.
In my mock, I penciled in Bryant all the way in the fourth round, but in reality, I thought at best he could go as high as early third. With that, if Bob wanted him, he had no choice but to grab him that early. It just shocked me though. I can’t thing of more unproven talent drafted in round one…at least when it comes to wide receivers. Just look at the list of wide receivers taken in the first round…it’s a list of who’s who of receivers. Just look at the list…
WIDE RECEIVERS TAKEN IN FIRST-ROUND…EVER Randy Moss (2001, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010) Terrell Owens (2002, 2003, 2004, 2005) Marvin Harrison (2003, 2004, 2007) Larry Fitzgerald (2006, 2008, 2009, 2011) Chad Johnson (2007, 2008) Andre Johnson (2009, 2011) Reggie Wayne (2009, 2010) Roddy White (2010, 2011)
Yes, Dez has the potential to be as good as these guys, but so far he has not gotten it done. He’s never caught 70 balls in a season, he’s never produced 1,000 yards (or 900 for that matter) and he’s never caught double-digit touchdowns.
ROUND TWO
In the second round there were a handful of surprises. I actually predicted that Bob would take A.J. GREEN, but I certainly did not expect him to do it after taking a wideout with the pick prior to this one. It’s rare for someone to draft a three-wide team.
However, two things about this round stuck out.
Prior to surgery, I expected TRENT RICHARDSON to go ahead of ADRIAN PETERSON, but after that second knee surgery, I was surprised to see the Browns’ running back go ahead of Purple Jesus. It’s rare enough to have a rookie running back to be great during his first season in the NFL, but Richardson is expected to be great after not one, but two offseason knee surgeries? Yes, he’s suppose to be the next Adrian Peterson, but at this point, you could have had the real Adrian Peterson.
Obviously with Peterson coming off a late-season ACL tear, there are plenty of concerns, but are those concerns that much more than a rookie back coming off two offseason knee injuries? To Don, the answer was yes. To Molly, not so much.
Speaking of going ahead of…how does Matt land MICHAEL TURNER with the 20th pick? Nine running backs went ahead of Turner, a back who has at least 1,300 yards rushing in four of the last five years he’s been a starter. Granted, he turned 30 this year and that’s poison for a running back, but I’ve never really bought that with this guy. Let’s not forget, Turner was a backup to Tomlinson his first four years in the league, never sniffing 100 carries in any season.
I guess wear and tear was an issue though because the league decided to take ahead of him rookie running backs (Richardson and Doug Martin), running backs coming off ACL tears (Charles, Peterson), backs holding out (Jones-Drew) and even backs with more wear and tear like Steven Jackson (he’s one year younger, but has 700 more career carries).
Overall, the entire back half of the second round featured a lot of surprises. ANTONIO BROWN was a mild surprise. I had him pegged for the fourth round, but at best I thought he’d go mid-third. I wasn’t shocked that Griff would pass on a second running back, but I thought he’d go quarterback. I was wrong.
AHMAD BRADSHAW fell further than I thought he would, landing with the hometown team of Jeff and then Eric surprised me with the PHILIP RIVERS pick. I actually knew he’d take a quarterback, but I thought for sure he’d go either Romo, Ryan or even Eli, but not Rivers.
ROUND THREE
What’s up with the love for the Broncos’ receivers? Eric grabbed DEMARYIUS THOMAS with the first pick of the third-round, then Jeff grabbed ERIC DECKER two picks later…talk about unproven talent. I get it, Peyton Manning is going to make someone a star, but there is no one in this league who can honestly say they know which one will be Peyton’s favorite. Picks #25 and #27 are early to be making football guesses.
It’s even more baffling to see two unproven Broncos receivers going early in the third when you see some of the wide receivers still on the board. I’m talking about folks like Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson, Miles Austin…but what about BRANDON MARSHALL?
It what had to be one of the biggest potential steal in the draft, Colby landed a high-end WR1 with the 34th pick in the draft. I never would have predicted Marshall falling that far. With the 20th pick, I was basically deciding between Percy Harvin and Brandon Marshall and I’m still not confident I made the right call.
Of course while in Miami, Marshall looked nothing like a top-end wide receiver, but back in Denver when he was with Jay Cutler, he was nearly putting up All-Robio numbers.
Also in the third-round, how about that ROY HELU pick? This was the standard head-scratcher for Molly. Here’s the deal, Helu is the starter in Washington. The problem is, Mike Shanahan is still their coach and you just can’t trust that guy. Remember in Denver he would produce a new 1,500-yard rusher ever year, but the key word there is “new” rusher. Sure Helu is starting now, but by week three, the fourth string guy could be the starter.
More importantly, I simply think Molly reached. Even if Helu proves to be a decent back (he certainly helped her husband at the end of 2011), I’m willing to bet she could have waited at least two more rounds to grab him). I certainly never thought he would have gone ahead of Shonn Greene, who lasted until the ninth pick in the fifth round.
ROUND FOUR
No real shockers in round four. I could argue Burrier taking FRANK GORE ahead of some of the younger pups was a bit of a surprise. DONALD BROWN going to Griff seemed like a reach, but I get it.
If I had to say one thing that was surprising was after I picked the 49ers D with the 9th pick of the round, the next defense wasn’t selected until the seventh round.
I can never understand why D’s are so unappreciated in this league. Granted, they can be hard to predict sometimes. Every year one great D always falters and one DST that is taken late in the draft always finishes in the top-five, but still seven rounds? The fact is, defenses in this league are important. Four are projected by CBS to break 3,000 total fantasy points. Just six running backs and three wide receivers are projected to break 3,000 points. Of those nine RB/WR’s that were not kept, all were taken with the first 16 picks of the draft. The good news for everyone (but me) was, since everyone (but me) decided to wait, a lot of people were still able to grab great defenses later in the draft.
ROUND FIVE
Jeff kicked things off quickly in this round when he selected TORRY SMITH (right) over Miles Austin. Take away Smith’s two amazing games last year (492 in week two, 378 in week 11) and he averaged just 86 points per game. Yes Austin has injury concerns, but when healthy he’s at worst a low-end WR2.
Two picks later Burrier threw caution into the wind and spit on its mother by drafting RYAN WILLIAMS over Beanie Wells. I understand the decision, but as of this writing, he’s starting a guy who’s not even starting for his own team…and is coming off an ACL injury.
Molly again reached when she took JERMAINE GRESHAM. Again, he could turn into a fine tight end, but was anyone else really planning on drafting this guy anytime prior to the 12th round. Seven tight ends went after him (five came after round 12) and I could make a solid argument that the other seven are better than Gresham.
PEYTON MANNING falls all the way to Griff in the fifth round. I’m not sure how I feel about that. While I’m excited to have Peyton back in the league, he does have three interceptions to zero touchdowns in the preseason. Still, I thought he’d be gone no later than the third-round.
Really Burrier, TOBY GERHART in the fifth round? That’s awfully early to be snagging someone else’s handcuff.
ROUND SIX
So far I’ve been talking a lot about what surprises me, but at this point in the draft, you guys are running out of ways to surprise me. However, you are still capable of making me proud. I love the JUSTIN BLACKMON pick by Griff. I think he has the potential to be the next A.J. Green.
I think the big story from this round is the story that will probably play out regarding the five running backs drafted in this round. I’m talking about PEYTON HILLS, ISSAC REDMAN, WILLIS MCGAHEE, STEVEN RIDLEY and BEANIE WELLS.
Nearly have the players picked in this round were running backs and I would not be shocked at all if none of these five are starting by season’s end. Hillis already isn’t starting, Wells will probably fall behind Ryan Williams on the depth chart sooner than later, McGahee is tough, but he has a lot of young legs behind him, I don’t trust Redman and I don’t trust the Patriots coaching staff (thus I don’t trust Ridley).
ROUND SEVEN
Eric might have landed a legit WR2 with REGGIE WAYNE. After so many years being a first or second round pick in this league, Wayne fell off the horse last year when Peyton didn’t come back. However, I think Luck is going to be a pretty good quarterback, even this year and there is little reason to believe his favorite target won’t be Reggie Wayne.
I don’t hate that Burrier took ANDREW LUCK in this round, but over the last three rounds, he’s draft three players that I can almost guarantee won’t see his starting lineup, Toby Gerhart, Titus Young and Andre Luck. I don’t know, it’s awfully early to be drafting for the future.
ROUND EIGHT
In round six I talked about a handful of running backs that are starting now, but could be coming off the bench by seasons’s end. In round eight we have DAVID WILSON (drafted by Masterson) and EVAN ROYSTER (drafted by me) who will start the season as backups, but could be the starter by the end of the season. Of the two, I’d put my faith in Royster. I actually think Wilson is the better back, but barring a Bradshaw injury, it will be tougher for him to sneak into the starting lineup. As for Royster, he actually rushed for over 100 yards in his two starts last year and both Tim Hightower and Roy Helu have struggled to stay healthy.
By the end of the season, KENNY BRITT could be a steal heading into the Robioland post-season. Nice grab by Molly.
Calderon wastes his ninth round pick by selecting BEN ROETHLISBERGER and his $10 salary. rich of course would be the only person to go over the cap in this year’s draft and barring a trade, he will have to cut Big Ben to get under it.
ROUND NINE
Wait, SANTANA MOSS is still in this league? Apparently he is because Eric took him with the first pick of this round.
Griff grabbing BEN TATE was the best handcuff pick of the draft. I actually thought Tate would go higher. It’s not that I think Foster is injury-prone, but Tate’s upside is just so…how you say…up.
LaGARETTE BLOUNT…oh, how the mighty have fallen. The next great back out of Tampa falls faster than Cadillac Williams. No harm to Molly for taking a chance on him this late in the draft.
Without getting any worse, the STEELERS D went from being drafted in round four last year to the end of round nine this year by Burrier. Amazing what a year can do.
Calderon is riding the Carolina backfield on his bench, drafting both Jonathan Stewart in round seven and now DEANGELO WILLIAMS in the ninth.
Don waits until round nine to grab a tight end and he might end up with the TE steal of the draft (yes, even mor so than Tamme). I expect big things from FRED DAVIS this year.
ROUND TEN
Colby takes RASHARD JENNINGS. There is no chance Maurice Jones-Drew will hold out all season long, so Colby begins offering Jeff a trade in 3…2…1…
I love when a position goes flying off the board. Don, Molly and Masterson go back-to-back-to-back defenses with GIANTS, TEXANS and the JETS D.
Excluding an 8th round keeper (Matt Stafford), Matt takes his third running back in four rounds when he selected CEDRIC BENSON. With Starks struggles to stay healthy, Benson could be The Man in Green Bay. Yes, he would take another one in the next round.
ROUND ELEVEN
It’s fitting that Don’s auto-pick took DAVID AKERS for him. Don is almost always the first person to draft a kicker in this league.
ROUND TWELVE
I like Calderon’s pick up of NATE WASHINGTON. Until Britt comes back and is healthy (no sure thing), he’s arguable the Titans number one receiving threat. Put it this way, he’s probably the only guy who caught 70 balls for over 1,000 yards last year to be drafted this late.
ROUND THIRTEEN
With the seventh pick in the 13th round, we have RANDY MOSS. It would only be fun if Masterson took Terrell Owens with his next pick and then with his final pick grabbed Chad Johnson.
I’m liking the DANNY AMENDOLA pick by Colby. Maybe not so much for this year, but he could be a solid keeper as a WR2 down the road. Note: Amendola is one of four players Colby has on his team that has tore a ACL at some point in their career (Amendola, Charles, Brady and Palmer).
ROUND FOURTEEN
I absolutely love the RASHARD MENDENHALL pick by Bob. I’m willing to bet a lot of folks were ready to grab him in this round. Worst case, he doesn’t come back and Bob wastes his 14th round pick. However, the best-case scenario (and most likely), he takes his time coming back, starts get touches mid-season and by playoff time, he’s starting again.
ROUND FIFTEEN
After having a career year in Dallas, LAURENT ROBINSON got a $32-million contract from Jacksonville, but the best he can do in this league is be the last non-kicker drafted. Harsh.
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