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Rob Murray

2011 PRESEASON PREDICTIONS | WHAT COULD GO WRONG

Okay, folks. Here our my preseason rankings. Below you will see a write for each team, but they’re not in any particular order. However, at the bottom you will find my rankings. I think you’ll be surprised by who I have on top.

Anyhow, there will be more later in the week. Including position rankings, and first, second and third team All-Robio predictions.

GRIFF COOMER Prior to the draft I was ready to hand Griff his second career title. Hell, I was already having his mug made, but then I forgot, that’s why we do the draft.

Something about this team seems off. He was set up to destroy this league. I’m talking undefeated season, record breaking total points, followed by a cakewalk title run. What happened? I’ll tell you what happened, Griff’s draft…Me’h. Yet, I’m actually not going to blame him. I think the draft really didn’t shake up well for him. Shall I explain?

In round one, I expected Griff to take an elite wide receiver, but both Roddy White and Larry Fitzgerald flew off the board. Now Griff could have reached for Reggie Wayne or DeSean Jackson here, but they were both reaches with the sixth pick. Instead, he grabbed an elite quarterback. Did he grab the right one? I’ll jump on that one in a bit. Let’s stick to the wide receivers.

With Rivers in the bag, the next two picks were going to be wide outs. Griff had no other choice. Yet, the league showed Mr. Coomer no love when three wide receivers (Wayne, Wallace and D-Jax) were snagged right before Griff in the second round. Griff took Mario Manningham. Now you tell me, even in a keeper league like this, did anyone have Manningham as their 19th pick in their mock drafts?

Griff would land Welker in the next round, which is fine, but it’s hard to believe a man set up so perfectly with keepers, could walk out of this draft with no WR1 on his roster.

Having said all that though, if there is a team that can survive without an elite wide out, it’s the Griffters. Rivers, Foster and Charles are the league’s premiere threesome. Foster and Charles last year combined for over 4,200 total yards. Now Foster is dealing with an injured hamstring, but Griff smartly grabbed Ben Tate to handcuff with his star (a very Griff thing to do).

Now, what about that quarterback? Obviously, anyone who knows me knows I love Asian chicks, peanut butter and Philip Rivers. Yet, even I would have had a hard time passing up both Michael Vick and Tom Brady for Rivers. In the end though, I’d be willing to bet it was a money thing, or maybe he loves Rivers too. He did pass for 4,700 yards and 35 touchdowns with his best receivers either injured or holding out.

On the bench, Griff played it safe with a couple of handcuffs (Tate, Thomas). I don’t expect much from Reggie Bush, but Boldin is a solid bye-week sub and A.J. Green could be a nice keeper if Griff didn’t already have Foster in that category.

MOBY THE DICK The big question coming out of the draft was, did I make a mistake passing on an elite tight end (Jason Witten)? Instead I opted for a high-end WR (Holmes), even though I already had Reggie Wayne and Vincent Jackson.

Still, the biggest shocker for me was not getting a QB in the second round. I’ll be honest I had Philip Rivers penciled in with my 14th pick all summer long. I was shocked when the quarterbacks went flying off the board so quickly.

Overall, I feel like I’m stacked. I got two top-10 running backs and I got two top-10 wide receivers (although Wayne will slip with Manning out). Now does four great players make a great team? Not always.

I traded up in the third round to leapfrog Colby and Don for Matt Schaub. I’m not saying both craved him, but I’m willing to bet one of them was going to take him before I picked (prior to the trade). The fact is I didn’t want to ride into the season with a quarterback who has yet to show he can be elite. Sure quarterbacks like Freeman, Stafford and Ryan are expected to make those leaps forward, but I just wanted a guy who has been there.

Now is Schaub elite? Well, he’s thrown for over 4,300 yards the last two seasons, averaging 26 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions, so he’s probably a top tier 2 QB. However, his number dipped last year, so he would need to bounce back up. Some this year.

My bench is strong. I love Holmes off the bench. If McFadden can’t go and that is a worry, it will be Holmes who comes in. I wouldn’t be afraid to put in Addai, but I’d have to cut money somewhere to play him. Clearly, I’ll be rotating defense. While I wouldn’t put either the Chargers or the Lions D in the top five, I’d love them both with the right match up.

GATOR NATION Don surprisingly landed both Michael Turner and Steven Jackson with his first two picks. Not that Don does a mock draft, but if he did, I’m sure he didn’t have that combo on his mock roster.

The pair gives Don a nice veteran combo. Both are the featured back and won’t lose a lot of carries to any backup. In fact, Jackson is coming off of back-to-back 300 carry seasons, while Turner has done it twice over the last three seasons. The flip side to that is, one or both are due for some breaking down. For Don’s sake, that better be a year off.

Don landed on the “wait and see” side of the quarterback aisle, but he reached early in the 4th to take Matt Ryan. Up to this point, Ryan has not been worthy of a fantasy starting spot (although he’s started a handful of games in our league). However, he’s expected to make that jump this year, with over 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns. If he delivers that, Don is golden.

At wide receiver, Don brought back all three wide outs from last year and I suspect that trio is going to be maddening as hell yet again this season.

Bowe was a touchdown machine in 2010 (led the league with 15), but he also was shutout a couple times. Harvin is listed as a WR2, but with McNabb at quarterback, there is no saying who will be his top target. Austin Collie put up some big numbers when healthy, but he’s really struggled to stay on the field in his career.

At tight end, look for Owen Daniels to rebound, while the Patriots D should be a solid tier 2 defense.

On the bench (Besides Collie), Fred Jackson offers up some nice relief if needed, while Cutler can produce if Matt Ryan is facing a tough defense. I don’t love Robert Meachem or Santana Moss, simply because they both play in offenses where the QB will spread it around.

LESBIN BIEBER THE SNAKE CHARMER Jeff had a big decision walking into the 2010 draft, keep Big Ben or draft an elite quarterback with the fourth pick? He chose the former and I think he made the right call. Then he proceeded to shock the world by taking Larry Fitzgerald with that fourth pick. That was a ballsy move passing on running backs like Turner, Jones-Drew and S. Jackson.

Overall, I think Jeff out-performed my expectations. He had a lot of tough decisions and he rolled the dice on a couple of them. They don’t always pay off, but I admire a man with giant balls. Seriously, I do.

The first ballsy move was passing on Jahvid Best and Ahmad Bradshaw for Felix Jones. Bradshaw would have been the safer pick and Best would have been the more popular one, but Jones has the most upside of the three.

One round later, Jeff proved he’s been doing some homework when he picked Tim Hightower. Personally, I would have never used a third round pick on a Redskins running back, not with such a crowded backfield, but word is, Shanahan is high on Hightower (that is until he starts to fumble the job away).

In round four, I love the Steve Johnson pick (and not just because I got him in my other league). Some people don’t consider Johnson a #1 receiver, but I do. The man had 82 catches, 1,073 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. He did that starting only 13 games. Yet, every “expert” has him catching around 60+ balls for 900 or so yards. On the bench, Jeff covered himself nicely with Kevin Kolb and more importantly, Cedric Benson. The Bengals back has looked good (when not locked in jail) and could be good insurance if Jones doesn’t pan out.

MOLLIPOP Now Rob officially broke my mock draft when he drafted Roddy White second overall, but I knew I was in trouble when Molly took Aaron Rodgers with the next pick. Gutsy move considering she needed a running back to pair next to Mendenhall.

Now that the draft is over, you can decide. With Molly’s first two picks she landed Rodgers and then Jahvid Best. She could have had Maurcie Jones-Drew and Tony Romo. Which QB/RB duo would you rather have?

Now with Rodgers, Mendenhall and the Eagles defense, Molly has a solid core. However, let’s talk about the question marks. First and most importantly, what will Best deliver? He has the skills to be as good as LeSean Mcoy (a 1,000-yard rusher with 80+ catches), yet the man hasn’t been fully healthy since his junior year of college.

Next up, Miles Austin? Tony Romo seems pretty comfortable with Dez Bryant. Is Austin Romo’s #1 target anymore? Between Bryant, Jason Witten and Felix Jones, Miles’ numbers could take a dip. Of course, that would just mean he’s not a #1 wide receiver, but just a high-end #2 instead.

The bigger question is Kenny Britt. He’s in his third year, which usually means breakout year for wide outs, but he’s also had to deal with off-the-field messes and now a hamstring issue. Add in a new offensive coordinator, limited practice time, plus a new quarterback, I’m not seeing that breakout this year.

Lastly, Molly shocked me once again in the fourth when she passed on Jason Witten for Jacoby Ford. Sorry, but way too early for an unproven, injured Raiders receiver. Now luckily for her, only one other tight end went between Witten being taken two picks later and Molly’s next available pick, so she was able to land Jimmy Graham. I like the Saints TE, but he’s no Jason Witten.

On the bench, Molly didn’t really need Chad Henne and Danny Woodhead is a waste. I do like McGahee as a bye-week replacement, but let’s hope Molly never really needs to start him for a long period of time. Malcom Floyd isn’t bad in the Chargers high-powered offense, but he’s fallen behind both Gates and Jackson in terms of Rivers’ preferred targets.

QUARTER POUNDERS Colby had a tough call to make in the second round. The first round didn’t really go as planned and Peyton Manning’s neck wasn’t healing, so he ended up taking the best available receiver, Mike Wallace. Between Wallace and keeper Nicks, Colby arguable has the best receiving duo in the league.

In rounds three and four, Colby passed on the risky running backs and wide receivers with potential and just nailed down the league’s top tight end (Gates) and top defense (Steelers). This takes some nuggets, especially when you still have other holes to fill. If you believe in Frank Gore, then you have to believe Colby has five elite starters (Gore, Nicks, Wallace, Steelers D, Gates).

Of course, if Colby wants to really succeed in 2011, it will come down to the quarterback spot and the second running back spot.

Now I know Colby thinks Josh Freeman is going to step up to elite status, but I’m not buying it. I don’t see Freeman reaching 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns, but that doesn’t mean I think it was a bad pick. Remember, Colby passed on a quarterback, thus landed Gates and the Steelers D.

The fact that he was able to wait seven rounds to land Freeman is great. Sure I don’t think Freeman is elite, but he doesn’t have to be. As long as he can get his yardage up, then Colby is set.

Now as for Ben Green-Ellis starting, that worries me. The simple fact is I don’t trust the coach. I don’t see Green-Ellis averaging more than 4.5 yards per carry, I don’t see him getting more than 230 carries and I don’t see him getting more than 7-8 touchdowns. Those aren’t bad numbers by any means. If all Colby’s other players pan out, then that’s all he’ll need from BGJ.

On the bench, Eli will provide nice cover in case Freeman flops. Neither Pierre Thomas nor Ryan Grant impresses me. Both will be sharing carries this year in high-powered passing attacks. Danny Amendola could turn into a solid WR2, but you know I don’t trust white receivers.

RICE, RICE BABY Let’s go ahead and it get it out of the way now. Drafting Roddy White paid off. I’ll be honest, I never thought Tony Romo would fall to Rob late in the second round. Sure the Cowboys quarterback is not Vick, Rodgers or Brady, but he’s a consistent 350-pt guy, capable of throwing in a 400-450 point game.

I was also shocked to see Bradshaw fall to him in the third. Sure Bradshaw is not as sexy as J. Best or F. Jones, but you know what, I can guarantee Bradshaw will rush for over 1,000 yards this year. I can’t make that same guarantee with either Best or Jones. What’s even better is that Bradshaw isn’t even Rob’s number one back. That’s Ray Rice, who has a new lead blocker in 2011 in Vonte Leach, who was leading Arian Foster through the holes last year.

For Rob, the three big question marks are defense (not buying the Falcons as a full-time starter), Dustin Keller (his numbers disappeared last year when Holmes was in there) and Sidney Rice. With T. Jackson as his quarterback, he had just four catches for 22 yards in the preseason.

On the bench, Mark Ingram was a nice grab. He might be good trade bait for a wide receiver down the road. Now Rob clearly had worries about Sidney Rice, because he stocked up on receivers. One would like to assume that out of Crabtree, Knox or Steve Smith (Carolina), someone would break out and produce a 1,000-yard season.

TEAM 6 You know when it came time to vote in the preseason match up between Burrier and Colby, I actually picked Rich’s team. I now regret that decision. Team 6 will again be led by Drew Brees, while Peyton Hillis will hold down the backfield. Obviously there is nothing to not like about Brees, but I have some concerns about Hillis. Late last season his numbers nose-dived. He’s a punishing runner and his body took a beating. Can Rich trust him to not breakdown again this year?

After the first round, Rich did some reaching in rounds 2 and 4. He passed up on Bradshaw, Best and Jones to land Shonn Greene. I think Green is good to go and can be expected to produce 1,000-1,100 yards rushing. I don’t like him because he never catches the ball and delivers no yards through the air.

Two rounds later Rich again took a chance on potential, when he passed on Holmes, S. Johnson and B. Lloyd to take Dez Bryant. Now I think Bryant is going to have a solid season, but I’m a Cowboys fan.

Add in Jeremy “Aids” Maclin and Burrier will be starting three guys who have never broken 1,000 yards in their careers. Is asking three guys to have their best years in their short careers too much to ask for?

Now I was shocked to see Rich pass up the Steelers D in the fourth, but he did land a solid Ravens squad. Of course this means he passed on Owen Daniels and will be starting Rob Gronkowski at TE. That doesn’t seem like a smart move.

On the bench, Burrier grabbed a solid backup RB in Moreno and I don’t hate D. Branch coming off the bench for bye-weeks. Not sure why he wasted a pick on Matt Cassel, when he could have taken some TE insurance with Mercedes Lewis or Greg Olsen.

THE DICK-TATERS No one was more shocked to end up with Michael Vick than Rich Calderon. Personally, I love it. Yes, Vick will make bad throws and get hurt eventually, but he’ll also produce 500-pt games (if not more).

In what seems like a yearly tradition now, Calderon decided to load up on solid wide receivers. Having already kept Calvin Johnson and Mike Williams, he also grabbed Brandon Marshall and underrated Brandon Lloyd. That’s easily the best foursome in the league. Of course it’s a good thing he grabbed them all, because he’s already going three wide.

Rich already had Blount, a potential elite back sitting on his roster, but there’s a deep decline to RB2. DeAngelo Williams is back and he could be solid again, but injuries are now a concern with him, plus the fact he’s playing with another rookie quarterback and we all remember how well that worked out for him last year.

Since he missed out on a true RB2, Rich decided to just steal everyone else’s handcuff. He grab Ryan Grant’s backup (Starks), Ryan Matthews’ backup (Tolbert), Peyton Hillis’ backup (Hardnesty) and the Redskins’ third-stringer (Helu). One of these has to pan out, right? Let’s hope for Rich’s sake it happens before the bye weeks kick in.

Of course when you draft all top-end receivers and handcuffs, you’re going to have to sort of forget about other areas. In this case, it was team defense and tight end. M. Lewis was halfway decent last year, but my gut says last year was a fluke, especially now that Garrard is gone in Jacksonville. As for the Cowboys D, they’re going to get raped this year. Yes, I said rape.

THE SWAMP The new era of Eric football is off to a rocky start. First, Chris Johnson held out. Yes, he finally signed, but he missed all of training camp. Next, Peyton Manning’s injury has been far worse than advertised. If he misses a lot of time and struggles to come back, that’s going to be a huge problem for Eric.

Speaking of Chris Johnson, I’m actually not too worried about him. Hasselback will be a better quarterback than both Young and Collins, so opponents will have to respect his throwing ability. This will open things up for Johnson.

Matt Forte doesn’t get a lot of love in this league, but I think he’s a solid back. He’s good for 1,200 yards and 50-60 catches. His only problem is scoring red zone touchdowns.

I’m not a big fan of the receiving core. Colston is a low-end #1 at best, not consistent enough to be elite. Garcon had potential, but not with Manning out. Edwards could be the top dog in San Francisco, but it’s still Alex Smith throwing the ball.

At least Eric was smart enough to draft Jason Witten, Romo’s favorite target and the Bears D should be even better with Brandon Meriweather at safety.

On the bench, McCoy doesn’t really deliver much and Eric failed to grab a single legit starting running back as a back up. If anything happens to Forte, he could not rely on any of his bench backs (Brown, Ringer and Stephens-Howling).

Lee Evans and Plaxico Burrier are old and #2 receivers in their respected offenses, so don’t expect too much from either. If either of them is productive, it will be Burress, simple because he’s a red zone threat.

VICK IN WHITE It takes a lot of guts to give up Michael Vick, but Matt is a man who knows what he likes (even if he doesn’t know much of anything else). He’s starting the season with Sam Bradford, but he was smart enough to grab Matt Stafford. The reality is, neither has done anything yet to be worthy of a starting fantasy spot, but if you guess right, you’re good.

However, because he passed on a QB early, Matt was able to land arguable the league’s best combo of both running backs and receivers. If Jones-Drew can stay healthy, Matt has two #1 backs. If D. Jackson can remain consistent, Matt has two #1 receivers. On top of that, he has a top-three tight end and somehow he landed a top-five defense. Did this man have an extra draft pick or something?

WILDCARD BITCHES! Sorry champ, but there will be no wildcard for you. Bob was not set up nicely after winning the title last year. Not only did he lose his best keeper (C. Johnson), his best 2011 keeper would cost him his first-round pick. Plus, since he won the title, he would have only one pick among the first 35. That’s not how you build a winner.

Bob decided to grab the most available points with the 13th pick in Tom Brady. By passing up on an elite receiver or Bradshaw, he’s got some huge question marks to answer?

Be honest, would anyone want to start the season with Beanie Wells and Ryan Mathews as their starters? That’s not good. Even Mike Thomas worries me at the WR2 spot. This means like Burrier above, Bob will be starting three players who have never cracked 1,000 yards in their young carries.

For now, Bob will need to ride his big three, Brady, A. Johnson and the Packers D. You could probably throw in Vernon Davis into that group. Hopefully some of these unproven players prove themselves this year. If not, Bob will need to once again work some magic on the free agent wire.

ROBIO’S PRESEASON RANKING:

#12 WILDCARD BITCHES! The last time Bob defended a title, he didn’t. My boy has a lot of holes to fill, because Beanie Wells and Ryan Matthews are not leading anyone to the promise land.

#11 TEAM 6 Last year, the same basic team led Burrier to five wins. Tell me why he’ll earn more this year? Better hope Greene and Bryant are the real deal.

#10 THE SWAMP Come on Eric, the top pick in the draft never misses the post-season! Damn you Peyton Manning’s neck and inconsistent receiving core.

#9 GATOR NATION Between Jackson and Turner, one of them breaks down. Ryan still has a lot to prove and I have no faith in Harvin or Collie as WR2.

#8 MOLLIPOP Really it comes down to Best and Britt. If both put up 2010 numbers, Molly will have her December open again this year.

#7 LESBIAN BIEBER THE SNAKE CHARMER Felix Jones and Tim Hightower could both be busts, but I suspect one will pay off and the other can just be benched for Benson.

#6 RICE RICE BABY Ray Rice and Roddy White will both be first-team All-Robio. Bradshaw and Romo can do enough damage. Now go find yourself a second receiver.

#5 THE DICK-TATERS Vick, Blount and Johnson are a wicked trio. I believe you’ll find a defense, but who will step up and be that flex player? Williams? Marshall? Lloyd?

#4 MOBY THE DICK If McFadden is healthy, I got the best backs in football. I also have three #1 receivers (although Wayne and Holmes are low-end #1’s). I need Winslow to stay healthy and Schaub to put up his 2009 numbers.

#3 QUARTER POUNDERS Like I’ve already mentioned, he has the #1 defense, the #1 tight end, two top-five wide receivers, a top-12 running back and a top-8 quarterback. Sure I have no faith in RB2, but Colby is a problem solver.

#2 THE GRIFFTERS Griff was #1 all summer long, but he slips to #2. The running backs are studs, as is Rivers. The receivers are good, but neither will qualify as WR1’s. I like Finley, but he’s had two straight seasons ends with a knee injury.

#1 VICK IN WHITE It’s simple…McCoy, MJD, D-Jax and Jennings are great. So are Dallas Clark and the Jets D. If either of his quarterbacks can be a top-8 kind of arm, Matt wins his third title in five years.

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