Will Masterson overcome all those awful years with a football championship or did I just jinx him?
Let’s look at the 2011 playoffs in a different way. Instead of a typical (yawn) team-by-team breakdown, let’s instead look at some of the big story lines we should be focusing on in this post-season. Here are 50 things you need to know about the 2011 post-season.
1. It’s all about the arms It’s a QB league, so it’s no wonder that the 8-playoff teams have 8 of the top 9 quarterbacks in this league. Still, dive into the numbers deeper and you’ll see the elite of the elites are that much better. Fact is (#1) Aaron Rodgers has out-scored (#9) Philip Rivers by over 200ppg.
2. Who’s Hot? It’s the Quarter Pounders. Colby enters the post-season riding a five-game winning streak.
3. Of course coming in hot doesn’t always mean what it once did Back in the day, the team that entered the post-season on the longest winning streak actually did some damage in the playoffs. Between 1999-2004, they went 11-3 in the playoffs. They won three titles, losing in the opening round just once. However, since then, hot teams have struggled. They are just 4-6 in the post-season, losing in the quarters three times and never winning a championship.
4. Who’s Cold? I don’t really want to call Don cold, but he’s the only person entering the playoffs on a two-game slide.
5. Of course it’s hard for cold teams to heat up in the post-season. Teams who have entered the post-season on the longest losing streak are just 5-10 (two seasons, 2008 and 2010 there were no teams on a multiple-game losing streaks). In fact, the last team to actually win a round one game was way back in 2002.
6. In Memory In honor of the great players we will miss this post-season due to injury: Jamaal Charles (Griff), Kenny Britt (Molly), Jahvid Best (Molly), Fred Jackson (Don), Danny Amendola (Colby) and potentially Andre Johnson (Matt)
7. Of course when someone falls, there is always someone worth picking up The biggest free agent picks expected to make an impact in the 2011 post-season: Victor Cruz (Molly), Jordy Nelson (Bob via trade with Colby), Roy Helu (Griff), 49ers D (Griff), Laurent Robinson (Colby), C.J. Spiller (Don)
8. Playoff Leaders Bob leads the pack in playoff winning percentage among the post-season teams (.692). Griff has most career wins (14). The highest scoring average is Masterson (1,449ppg).
9. Who can’t find a post-season win? We all know the answer to this one. Burrier hasn’t won a playoff game since 2003. He’s 0-5 since then. If he loses to Matt in the quarterfinals this weekend, he’ll be the only person to lose six straight playoff games (Molly also had a five-game losing streak that ended in 2009).
10. Biggest Lineup Shaker Five of Bob’s players who will be starting for him this weekend did not start for him on opening day. Gone (at least out of the starting lineup) from week one are Tom Brady (traded), Beanie Wells (bench), Andre Johnson (traded), Mike Thomas (cut), Adam Vinatieri (cut). He’s replaced them with Cam Newton (Off his bench), Steven Jackson (traded for), Mike Wallace (traded for), Jordy Nelson (traded for) and Stephan Gostkowski (Free Agent).
11. Who hasn’t changed a thing? Actually, what I’m about to tell you is pretty amazing, Rich Burrier potentially could become the first person in league history to have his complete week one roster also start for him in the quarterfinals. This is assuming he starts Jeremy Maclin over Torrey Smith.
12. Who has the best backfield? In my opinion, I would put Neatock over Masterson, just barely. This is based on how hot Maurice Jones-Drew has been lately. Anyhow, here are my RB rankings:
Matt – McCoy/Jones-Drew Rob M – Rice/C-Johnson Griff – Foster/Helu Molly – Mendenhall/McGahee Bob – Mathews/S-Jax Rich B – Hillis/Greene Don – Turner/Spiller Colby – Gore/Green-Ellis (although Colby is going three wide)
13. Let’s not forget the hands crew. Who has the best WR/WR/TE trios? Note: If you are going three-wide, I’ll just focus on your two best WRs. There are a lot of great receiving trios on these teams. It’s tough to really rank them.
Bob – Wallace/Nelson/Davis Griff – Green/Welker/Finley Molly – Cruz/Floyd/Graham Rob M – Colston/White/Keller Rich B – Bryant/Maclin/Gronkowski Matt – Johnson/Jennings/Gonzalez Colby – Nicks/Robinson/Gates Don – Harvin/V-Jax/Ballard
14. How about some first-round results based on seeds?
#1 Seed vs. #8 Seed The #1 seed leads 9-3. After a rough spell that saw the #8 seed knock off the top seed three times over a four-year period, the top seed has won four straight in this match up.
#2 Seed vs. #7 Seed The lower seed is 7-5 against the #2 seed in round one. In fact, the #7 seed has won five out of the last six.
#3 Seed vs. #6 Seed The #3 seed leads 7-5. Between 1999-2005, the lower seed proved its worth, taking the series 4-3. However, the #3 seed has won four straight until last year when Colby upset Matt.
#4 Seed vs. #5 Seed While based on seeding, these two are supposed to be equal, the 5th seed is a solid 8-4 against the #4 seed. This is even more surprising since the #4 seed is typically a really good team that just got stuck in a good division. However, recently the #4 seed has even things out. The #5 seed started 5-0, but the higher seed has now won four of seven.
15. Which player do I think is going to be a difference maker? I’m going with Chris Johnson, Titans running back. For whatever reason he’s starting to click now. Over the last month he has produced a 346, 293 and 386 point games. Heading into the post-season, his schedule is extremely favorable. His opponents are the Saints (23rd against the run in fantasy), the Colts (30th) and the Jaguars (11th).
16. How about another difference maker? I’m going to go with Ray Helu. It’s become clear that he’s now the number one guy in the Redskins backfield. He’s produced back-to-back 100-yard games and 200+ fantasy games. His final three are against the Patriots (13th against the run), Giants (22nd) and Vikings (18th).
17. How about a third difference maker, someone other than a running back? I’m going to roll with Percy Harvin. If Don wants to take down Molly, he’s going to need a star. Over the last three weeks, the Vikings have made it their mission to getting Headache Harvin the ball and he’s come through. His last three games have been 226, 246 and 444. Two of his final three opponents are wide receiver friendly, the Lions (16th against WRs), Saints (28th) and the Redskins (6th).
18. If you’re going to talk about a difference marker at running back and wide receiver, why not quarterback? I like Matt Stafford. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in a game only twice in his last six games and he’s been picked off 10 times in his last four. That’s not good. However, my gut says his numbers are about to swing back up. Over the next three weeks, Stafford will face three of the weakest defenses in terms of fantasy points given up to quarterbacks, the Vikings (dead last at 32nd), the Raiders (23rd) and the Chargers (22nd).
19. Which running back do I fear is ready to let down their team? Sure hope Bob isn’t relying on Steven Jackson to do much. The Rams running back has gone cold. He hasn’t sniffed 70 yards in a game since week 10 and he forgot about the end zone (ZERO TOUCHDOWNS).
20. How about a wide receiver? Which one is going to falter? I’m going to try to not judge a player by injury, so I’m going to ignore someone like Andre Johnson. I’m going to go with Laurent Robinson. He’s been one of the biggest surprises this season, scoring in five straight games until last weekend, breaking 200 fantasy points four times. However, if Miles Austin comes back, Robinson’s going to see less balls thrown his way, right? The last time Austin returned to action, Robinson was held to 2 catches for 43 yards.
21 Is there a quarterback set to really disappoint his team? Yes, how about Drew Brees? Over the last few weeks, none have been better. Over his last four, Brees has averaged 475ppg. However, three of those games were at home and the one road game was in a dome. In the four road games prior to this month, three of which were outdoor on grass, Brees averaged just 282ppg. In the quarterfinals, the Saints travel to Tennessee, an outdoor team with real grass.
22. Defense wins champions Typically in fantasy football, defense doesn’t really matter. Since most scoring systems are based on just points and turnovers, it can be very random. However, since Robioland factors in yards, the defense can make an impact. Six of the eight playoff teams have top-10 D’s. Four are the top four, Burrier/Ravens are first, followed by Griff/49ers, Masterson/Texans and Colby/Steelers.
23. Defense can cost you a championship Two teams have less than impressive D’s in this post-season. Bob has the Packers, who are just 13th in the league, but they’re not a bad as Don’s D. He has the Patriots who are just 25th among all defenses.
24. Scoring Champ and Top Seed Molly has become the 6th team in 13 years to earn both the scoring title and the top seed. Of the previous five, three won the league championship, most recently Matt in 2009. Overall the teams are 10-2 in the post-season. The only one that failed to get past the quarterfinals was me in 2003.
25. Last Chance to Win a Title There are eight players on the current playoff teams’ rosters that are in their third and final year as keepers. They are Percy Harvin (Don), Reshard Mendenhall (Molly), Miles Austin (Molly), Ray Rice (Rob M), LeSean McCoy (Matt), Andre Johnson (Matt), Sidney Rice (Matt) and Vernon Davis (Bob).
26. Player with the most rings is… Terrell Owns, the only player to earn three Robioland Championship Mugs for his team. He did it way back in 2001 for me and twice for Don in 2006 and 2008. There are three current starting players who have a shot at earning a third title. They are Wes Welker (Griff), who won two titles for Matt in 2007 and 2008; Sebastian Janikowski (Rob M), who got his two titles way back in 2002 (Robio) and 2004 (Bob); and lastly the Jets D (Matt) who have two titles under their belts, one in 2004 (Bob) and one in 2009 (Matt).
27. Searching for that first title Five of the eight teams in the playoffs this year have won a title in this league (Rich B, Griff, Matt, Bob and Don). In fact, three have two titles (Don, Matt, Bob). The three mugless teams are Colby, Molly and Masterson.
28. Scoring titles don’t always mean league titles Regular season scoring champs are 15-7 in the post-season. They started off 7-1 (1999-2001), but are just 8-6 since. They have suffered first-round defeats five times. Overall, four have won titles (Robio ’99, Jason ’01, Griff ’05 and Matt ’09).
29. Lowest Scoring playoff teams = bad news This is sort of a crazy stat…the lowest scoring playoff team is just 4-11 in the post-season. This includes 10 first-round exits. In fact, the only lowest scorer to ever win a playoff game is Don. He’s been the lowest scoring playoff team four times and is 4-3 in that role, including a 2006 title.
30. Where are the sleepers? Of the 56 non-kicker players who will be starting on someone’s team in these playoffs, only nine were drafted or kept in Category Three (Rounds 11-15). That’s 16%.
31. It’s all about the studs then, right? Just 27 of the non-kicking starters in the post-season were drafted or kept in category one. That’s about 48%.
32. The Spread Molly is the only triple digit favorite in round one. The guru has her at –275 against Don. Burrier is the only higher seed that is an underdog.
33. Expect a collapse, folks Of the current crop of playoff teams, only two have ended up earning the “Worst Playoff Collapse” award. Burrier took home the award twice (2004 and again in 2006). Don has delivered three times (2002, 2005 and 2007).
34. Biggest worry about Don? Matt Ryan. He just can’t put up the points like Aaron Rodgers, his first-round opponent.
35. Biggest worry about Molly? The Packers losing. If Green Bay loses a game soon, will they continue to play Rodgers full-time in week 16?
36. Biggest worry about Colby? Frank Gore has averaged just 78ppg over his last four.
37. Biggest worry about Masterson? Tony Romo is due for a three-interception game soon. He’s thrown just two in his last five. He’s due.
38. Biggest worry about Burrier? Peyton Hillis could be back on the bench with yet another injury.
39. Biggest worry about Griff? Philip Rivers 462-point game this past Monday was a fluke.
40. Biggest worry about Matt? The Jets D faces two offenses that can score a lot of points in what would be the semi-finals and finals.
41. Biggest worry about Bob? Mike Wallace has only five catches for 55 yards in his last two games.
42. Final Thoughts on Don He’s going to need a Tim Tebow-size miracle to take down Molly
43. Final Thoughts on Molly Has the potential to finish 2011 as the greatest team ever.
44. Final Thoughts on Colby I’m tired of doubting this team and being wrong. Having said that, I don’t see advancement in this year’s post-season.
45. Final Thoughts on Rob M If Masterson can make it to the finals, he’ll have two wide receivers (Colston and White) playing on the final Monday night. Gives me goose bumps…or Aids, one or the other.
46. Final Thoughts on Rich B It’s Burrier, he can’t win a playoff game.
47. Final Thoughts on Griff Yes, there is a real potential of a Coomer vs. Coomer championship game. I think the league’s head would explode.
48. Final thoughts on Matt I still believe he has the talent to beat anyone.
49 Final Thoughts on Bob The fact is, defending champs don’t repeat in this league. However, with his potential keepers next year (Newton, Nelson and Wallace), plus his first three picks, Bob could be a preseason favorite.
50. MY PREDICTIONS
QUARTERFINALS
#1 Molly over #8 Don I don’t believe in miracles. Molly produces the week’s high score, Don produces the league’s low score.
#2 Rob M over #7 Bob This one will be close as Newton produces another huge game, but I love Masterson’s backfield way too much.
#6 Matt over #3 Rich B Like the Bears last year against Green Bay on the final weekend of the season, Burrier should have won that week 13 game and knocked Matt out of the post-season before it even started.
SEMI-FINALS
#6 Matt over #1 Molly Do you really think I’m going to pick against my preseason favorite in the semis?
#2 Rob M over #4 Colby For the second time in league history, both Coomers will be on opposite sides of the bracket in the semis, but just like in 2002, they won’t meet up in the finals.
TITLE GAME
#2 Rob M over #6 Matt Rob becomes the first person in Robioland history to earn both a baseball and football title in the same year.
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