Today I begin my post-season predictions. I’m giving you one game at a time. Later in the week I’ll be discussing the teams that missed the post-season and help them look ahead to next year.
Enjoy.
No. 4 BIG JOHNSONS (8-4) VS No. 5 THE GRIFFTERS (8-4)
SCORING: Bob is 5th (1,357), Griff is 7th (1,319) BREAKDOWN: Griff, 9-4 SEASON HISTORY: Bob crushed Griff, 1,856-723 OVERALL HISTORY: Griff leads 6-5. Neither Bob or Griff has ever won three in a row against each other. PLAYOFF HISTORY: Griff and Bob have met twice before in the post-season, once in the 2004 title game (won by Bob, 1,216-1,169) and against last year. Griff beat Bob in the semis, 1,622-1,534. RANDOM STATS: Bob and Griff have been two of the most successful teams in the first round. Combined they are 11-2 (both loses were to me). Overall, the pair are 20-11.
ROBIO’S DEEP THOUGHTS:
QUARTERBACK: Griff has a pair of good ones in Shaub and Orton, but neither can match the power of the golden boy, Tom Brady. Over his last four games, Brady has averaged 480 points per game. Of course the bad news is, coming off his most impressive week, couldn’t you see Brady come down of his cloud just a bit against the Bears…the number one team against the pass? ADVANTAGE: Bob
RUNNING BACK: It’s amazing how things change in a season. A month ago, Bob had one of he best running back duos in the land with Chris Johnson and a combination of Tomlinson/Jones/Torain. Of course Johnson has disappeared and Bob is forced to ride Chris Ivory with every other 2-back struggling with consistency issues.
Griff has also had one of the best running back duos in the land. Foster is the top back in football and most likely the “All-Robio” player of the year. After a decent start to the seasons Charles was good, but not great. However, in his last six, he’s averaging 271ppg.
The fact is, Bob’s backs are sliding down, while Griff’s are starting to roll. ADVANTAGE: Griff
WIDE RECEIVERS: Griff has done a fine job improving an ugly receiving core. He picked up Steve Johnson who has put some huge games from time to time and he grabbed Colston in a trade, who is slowly starting to look like the Saints’ number one target. However, it still doesn’t compare to Bob’s duo. Brandon Lloyd is the co-pick up of the year (along with Hillis). The former 49ers receiver is the league’s top fantasy receiver heading into the post-season. Andre Johnson has battled injuries, but he’s still the 8th best receiver. ADVANTAGE: Bob
TIGHT END: At the beginning of the season, Griff had one of the best tight ends in the league (Finley), while Bob ignored the TE spot in the draft and was stuck starting Kellen Winslow. Heading into the post-season the roles have completely reversed. Bob has the league’s second best tight end (V. Davis) while Griff is stuck starting, you guessed it, Kellen Winslow, thanks to a season-ending injury to Finley. ADVANTAGE: BOB
PLACE KICKER: Rackers and Scobee are dead even. Rackers is the 7th best kicker, while Scobee is 8th. Rackers has one more 100-point game (4-3). ADVANTAGE: GRIFF (SLIGHTLY)
DEFENSE: Despite suffering a ton of injuries, the Packers D has stepped up and returned back to the top of the defensive rankings. Currently they are second behind the Steelers. They’ve produced at least 180 in five of their last six.
Griff has rode the Ravens for a while, he’s certainly had no problem rotating someone new when the opponent calls for it. This week, he removes the Ravens facing the tough Texans’ O and puts in the Chargers D. Of course the Chiefs offense isn’t a pushover, so I’m if the Chargers are an advantage over the Ravens, it ain’t by much. ADVANTAGE: BOB
BIG JOHNSONS BREAKDOWN: T. Brady: 366 points C. Johnson: 198 points C. Ivory: 193 points A. Johnson: 197 points B. Lloyd: 204 points V. Davis: 120 points J. Scobee: 60 points Packers D: 185 points
THE GRIFFTERS BREAKDOWN: K. Orton: 281 points A. Foster: 275 points J. Charles: 248 points M. Colston: 187 points S. Johnson: 172 points K. Winslow: 87 points N. Rackers: 80 points Chargers D: 155 points
FINAL RESULT: Griff’s got the backs and I even have faith in those receivers, but can his quarterback keep up with Brady? And can Winslow match Vernon Davis? My gut says he comes up just short.
BIG JOHNSONS OVER THE GRIFFTERS, 1,523-1,485
No. 3 VICK IN CANTON (9-4) VS No. 6 QUARTER POUNDERS (8-4)
SCORING: Matt is 2nd (1,402ppg), Colby is 4th (1,362ppg) BREAKDOWN: Colby leads 7-6 on the season, but Matt would have won their last four. SEASON HISTORY: Colby beat Matt 1,632-1,372 back in week nine. OVERALL HISTORY: Colby leads Matt, 6-3 PLAYOFF HISTORY: They’ve never met in the post-season. RANDOM STATS: Matt has actually won six-straight post-season games. He hasn’t officially lost a playoff game since 2005. Colby is 3-4 in the post-season, 2-2 in round one. The third seed is 7-4 against the sixth seed. The third seed has produced two championships (Robio in ’02, Bob in ’03). The #3 seed has won four straight. The sixth seed has never won a title. Only David in 2001 managed to make it to the title game.
DEEP THOUGHTS MATT:
Over the last four weeks, no team has put up better numbers. Matt is averaging 1,853 points over the last month. Nine teams in this league have yet to score that much in a game this season.
All the success can be placed onto the moment where Matt finally got all his pieces put together…no more injuries, no more bye weeks.
While Matt’s squad was pretty decent from the start, much of his success is coming from trades. Michael Vick could be the league MVP an Greg Jennings has been unstoppable the second he joined the Vick’s.
Since coming back from injury, Vick has averaged 478ppg. Remember that one amazing year Brady had back in 2007? He averaged a record-breaking 443ppg. On the season, Vick is averaging 416ppg…the second best season ever (if you just go by average).
Prior to joining Matt, Greg Jennings was a joke. As a member of God’s Cock, he averaged 103ppg. Since joining Neatock’s bunch, he is averaging a stunning 274ppg. That’s a 171-point increase. Not to mention the 209ppg Holmes has averaged over his last five.
Those three alone could be enough to justify a title run, but we’re only halfway through. Matt also landed LeSean McCoy in a trade. He is currently the 5th best back in Robioland. He also has the fourth best defense in the Giants (183ppg). On top of ALL that, he has Moreno. Now some might argue that’s not much since the Broncos have the worst rushing team in the league. I would argue that is deceiving. The Broncos were a bad running team because Moreno was hurt. Over his last four, he is averaging a solid 275ppg.
DEEP THOUGHTS COLBY:
It’s amazing what a month can do. Five weeks ago, everyone thought that facing Matt in the first round would be as good as a bye-week. In fact, I had Colby penciled in here for a long time. However, the switch has been flipped and now it looks like Matt has the bye.
Five weeks ago, Colby was the juggernaut. He had the league’s best quarterback, a top-three running back, plus a top-10 running back and two top-five receivers to boot. He had won six straight and seven of eight, failing to hit 1,000 only once. Everything was coming up Colby.
The Hakeem Nicks got hurt. Then Frank Gore went down for the season. In the span of two weeks, Colby lost both the third best receiver and third best running back in the league. On top off all that, Peyton Manning has turned into Ryan Leaf. He has thrown 11 interceptions in his last three games.
Colby still has enough talent to beat Matt. It’s not like he’s suddenly a pushover. Manning may be in a funk, but the Titans D may be the cure for his ills. Turner is a solid number one back, while Green-Ellis has four straight 200+ games.
If Owens is facing the Steelers, but he did score 382 points against them last time and even Welker has produced back-to-back 200-point games.
VICK IN CANTON BREAKDOWN: M. Vick: 430 points L. McCoy: 247 points K. Moreno: 277 points S. Holmes: 197 points G. Jennings: 263 points T. Heap: 0 points M. Prater: 80 points Giants D: 161 points
QUARTER POUNDERS BREAKDOWN: P. Manning: 272 points M. Turner: 216 points B. Green-Ellis: 195 points T. Owens: 177 points W. Welker: 148 points J. Tamme: 136 points D. Akers: 120 points Jets D: 149 points
FINAL RESULT: Colby can win, but he’s going to need a couple of his players to produce THAT big game, while he’ll need one or two of Matt’s boys to lay an egg. I just don’t see it happening.
VICK IN CANTON OVER QUARTER POUNDERS, 1,655-1,413
No. 2 MAN-DATE (9-4) VS No. 7 GATOR NATION (6-7)
SCORING: Rich C is 1st (1,443ppg), Don is 8th (1,113ppg). BREAKDOWN: Rich Calderon, 10-3 SEASON HISTORY: These two did not face off during the regular season OVERALL HISTORY: Rich leads 7-3. However, these two have quite a history against each other. Rich won the first seven meetings, but Don has rolled off three straight, including two last season. PLAYOFF HISTORY: This will be Calderon and Don’s fourth meeting in the post-season and their third in four years. All of their meetings have been in the first round. Rich won the first two (1,845-1,075 in 2004 and 1,604-1,436 in 2007). However, Don upset #2 seed Rich in 2008, 1,505-1,133. Don would win the title that season. RANDOM STATS: Calderon’s 1,443ppg is the 8th best regular season. Rich is 5-5 in the post-season. He’s 4-1 in round, but just 1-3 in the semis. Don is only 2-5 in the first-round, but is 4-0 after the quarters. Obviously this is the infamous 2-6 match-up. The number two seed is 10-10 in the post-season, but is just 5-6 in the first-round. In fact, the #7 seed has won four of the last five.
DEEP THOUGHTS RICH C:
Calderon may have had a lot of name changes this season, but his squad has been one of the more consistent of the season. He’s never scored less than 1,000 and he’s only been below 1,300 twice.
This team is a rare-bread because of the fact that Rich has made some pretty important moves, yet his team has never really taken a hit from it. The fact is, the moves look like they paid off. Aaron Rodgers is flaming, averaging 496ppg over his last three. Of course Roddy White has cooled during that same time, averaging just 130ppg.
Of course it always helps to have two consistently good-to-great players in Steven Jackson (more good than great) and Calvin Johnson (more great than good).
Rich has two basic decisions to make, who to start at second RB and who to start at defense. At second RB, he has simply guessed wrong lately, never able to catch the hot legs between F-Jax, Blout and Williams.
Defense though has been his biggest question mark every week. Over the last eight weeks, Rich has started eight, count ‘em, eight different defenses. However, he’s actually done a good job guessing right. Last week, the Seahawks (one of the worst D’s in the league) gave him 200+.
DEEP THOUGHTS DON:
Lost in Burrier’s amazing second half comeback was Don’s own second half comeback. He rallied from a 2-5 start (one in which he failed to score 1,000 three times) to end the season 4-2. He had gone eight weeks without dipping below a grand before last week’s hiccup.
Don’s been riding a two-headed monster of Jones-Drew and Bowe. The pair have produced six 300-point games since week 10. On top of that, Don has received solid production from Harvin, Pettigrew and his two-headed QB attack of Eli/Cassel.
While I won’t call Don’s team lucky…he’s 8th in the league in scoring, so he earned his playoff spot, let’s not forget how lucky he has been. During his 5-2 second-half turnaround, he’s failed to crack 1,150 four times. He’s won three times when doing so, thanks to his opponents who have failed to crack 1,000 four times.
MAN-DATE BREAKDOWN: A. Rodgers: 412 points L. Blount: 204 points S. Jackson: 195 points C. Johnson: 193 points R. White: 191 points A. Gates: 163 points M. Crosby: 120 points 49ers D: 124 points
GATOR NATION BREAKDOWN: M. Casell: 320 points R. Brown: 92 points M. Jones-Drew: 276 points D. Bowe: 241 points Harvin: 139 points Pettigrew: 110 points J. Brown: 70 points Dolphins D: 166 points
FINAL RESULT: Don wins because his opponents don’t score 1,000. That has not been a problem for Calderon. In fact, remember Don’s season average of 1,113ppg. Rich has never scored that little so far this season.
MAN-DATE OVER GATOR NATION, 1,602-1,414
No. 1 GOD’S COCK (12-1) VS NO. 8 TEAM 6 (5-8)
SCORING: Robio 1st (1,367ppg), Rich B 6th (1,324ppg) BREAKDOWN: Robio, 7-6 SEASON HISTORY: Robio beat Burrier, 1,281-898 OVERALL HISTORY: Rich leads 7-5. Rich had won seven straight regular season games against me until this week. However… PLAYOFF HISTORY: Burrier and I have met once in the post-season back in 2005. In round one, I beat the 3rd seeded Burrier, 1,816-1,295. RANDOM STATS: Rich and I have a total of four championships. However, those titles were many moons ago. Still, the two of us couldn’t be any different in the playoffs. I’m 15-5 in the post-season. I’m an impressive 7-1 in the first round, last losing in 2003. Burrier won the title back in 2003 and shockingly hasn’t won a playoff game since. He’s 1-4 in the first-round.
DEEP THOUGHTS ROBIO:
Don’t be fooled by the 12-1 record and the 12-game winning streak, my team is not rocking into the playoffs. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve had a good year, I’m proud of the season I’ve had, but the fact is, my boys are not hot and the last time I checked, this was not the time to freeze up.
Peterson’s has broken 300 only once in his last four and McFadden is averaging just 125ppg in his last two. I was supposed to be led by this fearsome RB duo, but lately the only person they’re scaring is me. Even Philip Rivers, who was spitting out 400-pt games at an alarming rate, is suddenly putting up blah numbers. He’s failed to crack 240 the past two weeks.
Even at wide receiver, I’m not getting the numbers. DeSean Jackson has only 12 catches in his last four games. He hasn’t cracked 90 yards in his last three and he hasn’t score either. The good news is, I am getting Steve Smith back, but what can I expect from a guy who hasn’t played in three weeks?
The reality is, while my team may be dipping, that dip hasn’t resulted in loses. Take away that 937 in week 12 and my lowest score is just 1,389. Still, even when this team was rolling, it’s not like I was dominating. I’ve only produced two games over 1,500.
DEEP THOUGHTS RICH B:
Rich Burrier accomplished a near-record breaking feat when he rallied from a 1-5 start to make the playoffs. Of course he benefited from the simple fact that because a handful of teams dominated a handful of other teams, he only needed a stunning five wins to get to the post-season. Still, this is a squad that has won four of six and five of eight. He’s scored over 1,400 in four of his last five and he’s scored at least 1,000 in nine straight.
For Rich to be successful this season, he needed Brees to be Brees. Throughout the season, the New Orleans’ QB wasn’t bad, he just wasn’t…how you say, Brees. Lately though, he’s be hitting his targets and averaging about 370ppg over his last three.
Secondly, Rich has some nice options at WR. Wallace is the number one option in Pittsburgh and he’s been excellent since Big Ben returned. Wallace has averaged 206 fantasy points since Ben came back. He’s produced two 300-pt games in his last four.
Of course, if Rich wants to thank anyone for his second half turnaround, look no further than the league’s top whitey, Peyton Hillis. The Josh McDaniels’ reject is currently the third best back in football. This week against a weak Bills D, you know he’s going to be amp’d up to break 1,000 yards rushing (he needs 58 more).
The key to this game will be two decisions by Burrier. Who to start at the second RB spot and who to start at the second WR spot.
At RB, he’s got Best, Bush and Woodhead. Best is probably the best of the bunch, but that’s when he is healthy. Right now, he’s not 100%. Bush had the best week last week and he has put up three 200+ games, but he’s also put up plenty of 20 point games. Woodhead may be the safest choice, but he’s not going to hand you 200+ any time soon.
At WR, Rich has less options, but the decision is just as important. Do you go with Maclin against Dallas or Floyd against the Chiefs?
Of course, Rich’s biggest advantage will be defense. He’s got the top defense, while I’m sing the Buccaneers on the road in DC. The Steelers are traveling to Cincinnati and they certainly know how to turn the ball over.
GOD’S COCK BREAKDOWN: P. Rivers: 303 points D. McFadden: 166 points A. Peterson: 255 points D. Jackson: 173 points J. Witten: 117 points M. Bryant: 110 points Buccaneers D: 170 points
TEAM 6 BREAKDOWN: D. Brees: 364 points P. Hillis: 290 points D. Woodhead: 166 points M. Wallace: 205 points J. Maclin: 213 points B. Watson: 121 points D. Carpenter: 80 points Steelers D: 174 points
FINAL RESULT: The last time I was the top seed, I lost to a team that recovered from a 1-5 start. History repeats itself.
Team 6 over God’s Cock, 1,613-1,465
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