Welcome to the 2009 Fantasy Football Mid-Season Predictions. I’ll be honest, last year was tough. I had no idea who the pick. This year, ah this year…this year was a lot easier on my brain. While there are a couple teams I’m unsure about (Colby, Burrier, and Bob could all surprise me), but I’m confident I know who the elites are, who’s just a step below and who’s looking ahead to next year. The only thing different is, last year I had a category of “what I got wrong,” but so far, I haven’t gotten too much wrong in my predictions (Jeff, Don, myself), so I got rid of that section.
Like the past two seasons, we also have a little surprise for you. Previously the Rich’s (both Burrier and Calderon) did write ups on top of mine…this year, 2007 league champion, Matt Neatock, is contributing. Now we ALL know Matt clearly has the best team and is going to win this bad boy, so he’s going to tell you all why you have no shot. Before we get started, let’s look at some history:
How were our former champs doing at the halfway point? 1999 – Robio Murray started 4-3 After an average beginning, Robio finish the regular season 7-0 (only perfect 2nd half). 2000 – Robio Murray started 6-1 Robio’s greatest start, but was only average down the stretch at 4-3, earning 2nd seed. 2001 – Jason Carpenter started 5-2 Good start for Jason, but a even better finish at 6-1, taking the top seed. 2002 – Robio Murray started 2-5 This season gives everyone hope. Finished a solid 6-1 and earned the third seed. 2003 – Burrier Bruisers started 4-3 Not overwhelming, but 4-3 was good enough to give him the division and 3rd seed. 2004 – Bob Castrone started 4-3 Bob rolled at the end, going 6-1, winning the division and taking the 2nd seed. 2005 – Griff Coomer started 3-4 Griff finished with a 5-1 record. He didn’t win the division, so he got the 4th seed. 2006 – Don Vozzola started 5-2 First champ to have a losing record in second half of season at 2-4, earning the 7th seed. 2007 – Matt Neatock started 3-4 Second team to start 1-4 and win the championship, winning seven of his last nine. 2007 – Don Vozzola started 3-4 Third team in four years to start 3-4 and win the championship. Continue to ignore Don who finished 2-4 in ’06 and 3-3 last season, the basic rule is, forget the first half. If you want to win the title, finish strong. The champs, not named Don, have a stunning combined 39-9 record in the second half of the regular season.
PRE-SEASON RANKINGS:
PRE-SEASON RANKINGS AND PREDICTED AVERAGE SCORE / SEVEN GAME AVERAGE & MY THOUGHTS *** Quick note: Averages at mid-season typically are lower because of byes. Team averages always increase as the long moves along. *** #1 GATOR NATION Too inconsistent to be a champion. One week he hits 1,500, the next he can’t top 900. #2 VICK IN A BOX He’s been first or second all season long. Anything short of the title game will be a major disappoitment. #3 THAT FISHY SMELL It was looking bad early, but he’s starting to look like a top-five team. #4 MOLLIPOP So far, she’s proven she’s not up to par with the big boys, going 0-2 against Matt & Jeff. #5 I PEEP FREELY Would you believe me if I told you I thought Bob would start the seasons 2-5? I did. I also felt he was going to get hot after that. #6 CANE MUTINY Stunning. That’s really all I can say. I never thought I’d still be searching for my first win after seven weeks. #7 DIRTY SANCHEZ I still believe we have yet to see what this team has to offer, since Rob has yet to start his full starting lineup yet. #8 QUARTER POUNDERS I was a bit surprised by the 3-0 start, but I’m even more surprised by the 0-4 follow up. #9 THE GRIFFTERS He’s produced eight total wins the last two years. He should get eight wins this season easily. #10 JOHN MAYER You want me to explain Burrier’s three-game winning streak? Easy. Two were against Colby and me. #11 THE SWAMP Good news for Eric…there is going to be some amazing talent at the top of the draft next year. #12 OTIS MURRAY & … So who do I take with the first pick in the 2010 draft? Adrian Peterson or Drew Brees?
FIRST-HALF PLAYERS
FIRST TEAM, ALL-ROBIO QB – Peyton Manning (Colby) – 409ppg is 3rd best ever. RB – Ray Rice (Rob M) – Masterson saw it coming. Did you? RB – Adrian Peterson (Matt) – The least shocking First Teamer. WR – Wes Welker (Matt) – Best player on best team (Neatock’s)? WR – Reggie Wayne (Colby) – Best target on best offense. TE – Dallas Clark (Molly – No Gonzalez, Gates or Witten? PK – L. Tynes (Griff) – Griff lands two 1st teamers (PK & DST). DST – Eagles DST (Griff) – That 506-pt game goes a long way.
SECOND TEAM, ALL-ROBIO QB – Matt Schaub (Griff) – He slips past Brees for 2nd. RB – Maurice Jones-Drew (Don) – Expected to be this good. RB – Chris Johnson (Bob) – Still living off one good game. WR – Vincent Jackson (Jeff) – Two big 300-pt games do add up. WR – DeSean Jackson (Matt) – Neatock’s 3rd player on these lists. TE – Owen Daniels (Jeff) – He was No 2 last year at this time too. PK – R. Longwell (Colby) – He was 2nd team last year too. DST – Broncos DST (Colby) – Surprised Calderon cut them.
THE ALL-ROOKIE TEAM QB – Mark Sanchez (Rich B) – Actually led Rich to one win. RB – Donald Brown (Rich C) – Just needs more carries RB – Knowshon Mareno (Colby) – Favorite for R.O.Y. WR – Hakeen Nicks (Matt) – A future starter for Matt? WR – Mike Wallace (Bob) – May be best hands on Steelers. TE – Brandon Pettigrew (FA) – He had one 120-point game. PK – Ryan Succop (Matt) – Neatock just picked him up. DST – There are no rookie defenses
THE ALL-DISAPPOINTMENT TEAM QB – Jay Cutler (Eric) – Too many interceptions. RB – Matt Forte (Molly) – Can anyone explain what’s wrong? RB – L. Tomlinson (Rob M) – He’s had one 100-point week. WR – Terrell Owens (Robio) – Colossal Bust. WR – Lance Moore (Eric) – One 200+ game and nothing else. TE – Dustin Keller (Colby) – Everyone thought he’d blow up. PK – Robbie Gould (Molly) – Hit 100 points only once so far. DST – Titans DST (Eric) – And why does Eric hold on to them?
THE ELITE
HAS A PRE-SEASON FAVORITE EVER WON IT ALL? – MATT NEATOCK, VICK IN A BOX (6-1) SO FAR – Like we expected, Matt is cruising. He’s dominating the league bitches, smacking the elites around like his wife. That lone lose? He lost by 123 points when Frank Gore carried the ball one time and went out for the game. Gore stays in, Neatock’s 7-0 and the world just seems a little bit less brighter.
So far, he’s cracked 1,500 four times, while getting help from his opponents who have failed to hit 1,000 three different times. His boys litter the top-five at nearly every posiiton. Rodgers (did you know I’ve been calling him Rogers this whole time) is the 6th best QB (he’d be top three if he wasn’t sacked 27 times so far, costing Matt 270 points), Peterson is second among backs, while Welker and Jackson (great pick) are first and fifth among receivers. Officially, Gonzalez is his worst starter and he’s stil a solid 8th at tight end. Still can’t believe Matt only won three games last year with Rogers, Peterson and Welker.
MY PRE-SEASON PREDICTION… I placed him number two and he’s been one or two all season long. He’s sitting pretty as the top seed and has a good shot at being our first triple crown winner (top seed, scoring champ, league champion) since former league ass-fuck, Jason did it back in 2001.
GOD I LOVE STATS – Last year at this time Matt was 1-6. This year he is 6-1. Are we looking at the greatest turnaround ever? Actually, no. David went 1-6 one year and went 7-0 the next. However, Dave didn’t win the title.
X-FACTOR – Frank Gore. He was the top pick in the draft, taken over Steven Jackson, but outside of a one week two outburst, he has not lived up to the hype. With Gore, Matt’s boys are clearly the best. With an average Gore, he’s still the best, but he falls back down to earth just a little.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – In reality, it’s a championship. Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t baseball (for those of you who don’t do fantasy baseball), the scoring doesn’t allow for lucky teams to win championships), anyone can beat anyone on any given Sunday (except for me). You’ll have to wait and see below if I actually have Matt winning it all. However, I still think this team can actually get better, if you can believe that. Matt still has a tough schedule ahead, but anything less than 10 wins would be a shock. (WINS) Eric, Rob M, Rich C., Don, Molly (LOSES) Griff
MATT’S MUSINGS – Take a look at my roster. Go ahead, I’ll wait…What you just saw is a complete team. Handcuffs galore, and every position could go off at any time. Unless you’re one of the three teams I’ve felated in this write-up, you have a better chance of finding a $50 bill on the ground walking into work than you do of beating me. Which is why I’m going on record right now that I’ll be the first team out of the playoffs. That’s just the way things seem to work out
RETURN TO GLORY – GRIFF COOMER, THE GRIFFTERS (5-2) SO FAR – Sometimes, everything just clicks. After two disasterous seasons that saw Griff produce a total of eight wins (that same amount of wins his wife averages per season), mostly because his opponents scored the most points, it’s only fair the fantasy gods shined some light onto Coomer’s greying, thinning goatee.
So far this season, he’s dropped two games to two division leaders (Jeff & Rob are a combined 11-3), but he’s really only had one bad game. He’s hit the 1,400-point mark five times, including four in a row. The simple fact is, Griff had a lot of question marks coming in; could Shaub stay healthy? Will Thomas Jones act his age? Will the Rams offense kill Jackson? Was Chad Ochocinco’s career on the decline? In each case, all the answers have worked out positvely for Griff. Schaub is healthy and the No 2 QB, Jackson is the 10th best back, despite an awful Rams offense. Thomas Jones is somehow still a top-five back and Ochocinco has scored the third most points by a wide receiver.
MY PRE-SEASON PREDICTION…Obviously, I underestimated Griff’s running game and his team in general. Although I did pick him to win his division, that had less to do with his greatness and more to do with what I thought was a bad division. While I had him going to the playoffs, I never thought he’d survive the first-round. Right now, he’s looking like a title game contender.
GOD I LOVE STATS – For the first time since 2005, Griff’s win total will actualy improve this season. Since 2005, his win totals have been 10, 8, 7, 4 & 4.
X-FACTOR – Steven Jackson & the end zone. The last time Griff took home the championship mug, he had two No 1 backs (technically, he had three). Right now, Jones is looking solid, but Jackson’s hasn’t sniffed the end zone yet this season. When was the last time a back produced 804 total yards and no touchdowns? Jackson’s 170ppg average is good, but some touchdowns will make him great.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – Leon Washington breaking his leg has to be the biggest story for Griff heading into the second half. The Jets know the road to the playoffs is running the ball, so Thomas Jones should see 15-20 carries (if not more) each game. If the Rams can get Steven Jackson some touches near the goal line, this team is flawless, thanks to two No 1 receivers, an elite tight end and a stat-stuffing defense and quarterback. Half of Griff’s games down the stretch are against the three worst teams (Robio, Eric, Burrier), but he still has to face Matt once and Jeff for a second time. I know Coomer hates when I pick him to win, but sorry pal, Griff will finish with 10 wins. (WINS) Molly, Matt, Eric, Jeff, Rich B. (LOSES) Robio
MATT’S MUSINGS – Movies and TV have taught us that super powers develop over time, and this year, Griff developed his – stopping a draft on a dime. While I wouldn’t say Griff’s team is so good because of the 10 mins he had for each pick, he does seem to have a lot of gambles that worked out for him. Regardless, we don’t need to look any further than this week to see who will be wearing the penis in the Coomer household. We’ll be seeing one of them in the postseason.
MAKING MY PREDICTIONS LOOK BAD – JEFF GREENBLATT, OTIS MURRAY & THE KNIGHTS (6-1) SO FAR – Everything has simply worked. Brady and Moss started a bit slow, they finally starting puting it together against the league losers (Titans, Bucs). This is a quarterbacks league and Brady’s 355ppg average makes him one of the best. Moss has certainly become a No 1 receiver again thanks to the return of Brady, yet he’s still only the second best WR on Jeff’s team. That belongs to Vincent Jackson, the 3rd best pair of hands in the league (based on average). However, this team doesn’t just ride a few stars, Jeff has the top tight end, a top-three kicker and a top-eight defense. However, none of this is too shocking. The concern was always the running backs and Jeff answered that concern through seven games, thanks to Benson, Benson and more Benson.
MY PRE-SEASON PREDICTION… when Cedric Benson was your best back, I just knew Jeff was in trouble, which is why I had him last. I was completely wrong. Benson is a stud and thanks to his legs, Jeff is a contender. It happens every year; a team I predict to finish at the bottom or near the bottom, turns out to be one of the league’s best. At least I’m consistent.
GOD I LOVE STATS – Jeff is 6-1, as is Matt. They are only the 8th and 9th teams in league history to win six of their first seven. However shockingly, only one 6-1 team managed to win the title (Robio in 2000).
X-FACTOR – Hightower and/or McGahee. Now granted, there is a lot of parity in this league and over the last three seasons, as Don has proven, you don’t need a perfect team to win a title. While Jeff has done an execellent job rotating Hightower and McGahee, it looks like it will get tough down the stretch. Hightower is slowly giving way to Wells. He hasn’t cracked 150 since week two. Four times he has gotten less than 10 carries. McGahee was a touchdown machine through three weeks (five), but he’s been shutout since then. Ray Rice has established himself as one of the best backs in football, which is bad news for McGahee.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – Tom Brady may be the sexy side, but the motor is all Cedric Benson. I see little evidence that says he’s going to decline for any reason and he’s never been an injury concern. He still has a tough schedule ahead, including a Brady/Moss bye-week against Bob this week, but Jeff will fight to the end for the division with Griff. In reality though, if you look at how things will fall, you almost rather be the 4th seed, than the higher seed (you’ll see below). In the end, look for both Jeff and Griff to finish with 10 wins, but Jeff will lose the division when Griff beats him in week twelve and wins the total points tiebreaker. (WINS) Don, Rob M., Rich B., Eric (LOSES) Bob, Griff
MATT’S MUSINGS: If you took a vote in August who the winner was in the Quarter Pounders divorce, I don’t know if Jeff would have received a single vote. Now the guy who had mid-draft shouting matches with Robio because he “Takes fantasy football too seriously,” is a juggernaut. Unless something changes, this team is one of two that will have me shitting myself in the playoffs. Robio, do you think you can print out some credentials for Jeff to post on his J-Date page? It might be his best bet.
GOOD, NOT GREAT, BUT STILL TIME
JUSTV WARMING UP – RICHARD CALDERON, THAT FISHY SMELL (3-4) SO FAR – The names are big; Brees, Fiztgerald, Slaton, Bowe, Gates…add in solid pick up (Sims-Walker) and there is no reason why Rich should be losing. Yet, there he was 1-4. However, Rich’s slow start is quickly being forgotten after winning two straight (and three out of four). The reality was, outside of Brees, his stars were not producing. It took both Slaton and Fitzgerald four games to hit 200. As for Bowe, it took him five games. All three have gotten their acts together and living up to expectations (although Bowe is still not playing like a No 1 WR yet). Still, everything runs through Brees, who’s 600-point games make us overlook no legit second running back.
MY PRE-SEASON PREDICTION… are looking pretty good. I felt that Calderon was the third or fourth best team, but would suffer a bit by being in a tough division and that’s exactly what’s panned out.While the jury is still out on what division is really the best, we do know that if Rich was in the Manhattan Division, he’d probably be in first place. I doubt Rich will be able to catch Matt for a division title, but he could end up in another amazing 5 seed vs 4 seed come playoff time.
GOD I LOVE STATS – We shouldn’t be too surprised to see Calderon at 3-4. In six seasons, Rich has either finished the regular season with six wins or nine. Nothing else. He’s won six games four times. He’s finished with nine wins twice.
X-FACTOR – Second Running back. So far, Rich has primarily used Julius Jones, who’s had two great games (290 & 288) and three horrible games (56, 42 and 46). However, if you look at last year, Jones did the exact same thing. Right now, he has Jones, Maroney and Donald Brown. None seem like great options yet, so the question is, if none of these three pan out, does Rich trade? Does Rich go three-wide? Only he knows for sure.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – I expect good things from Calderon in the second half (have you seen some of the opponents Brees will take on down the stretch? The Bucs twice, the Rams, Panthers and Redskins. His two toughest games, Dallas & NE, are at home). And yes, Brees is this important. Of course, it would actually help Rich if the Saints dropped a game or two or he risks Brees not playing a full game against the Bucs in the title game (am I getting ahead of myself here?). The key though for Calderon’s success will be Fitzgerald and Sims-Walker. If they can play at the level we think they can, he’ll have a receiving core that can compete with Jeff (Jackson/Moss), Matt (Welker/Jackson) and Griff (White/Ochocino). Despite all the positives signs, Rich has lacked consistency and lady luck and I look for that to continue. I’m predicting he will drop three of four down the stretch, needing a victory over Molly in the final week to get him into the playoffs. (WINS) Colby, Robio, Molly (LOSES) Rich B., Don, Matt
MATT MAUSINGS – If Rich Calderon were in any other division, he’d be playoff bound, proving that your roster could be complete doo doo and it doesn’t matter when your QB puts up 400+ each week, and you have the best receiver in football. Sure, Steve Slaton could turn it on, and Maroney or Brown could become integral parts of their respective offenses, rounding out Rich’s team… and Megan Fox could also ring my doorbell, tell me she has a thing for lanky, balding dudes, beg me to give heran Alabama Hot Pocket, and my wife could be cool with the whole thing.
JUST HAVE THAT LUCKY FEELING – ROB MASTERSON, DIRTY SANCHEZ (5-2) SO FAR – It’s only fair that teams like Griff and Rob are catching some breaks, considering they’ve been abused by the fantasy gods over the years. However, not all breaks are created equal. Griff’s a machine right now, as every question mark before the season has come up positive. Masterson on the other hand, he’s relying more on lady luck. Don’t get me wrong, this team isn’t a bad team winning (like David last year). Instead, Masterson has been forced to piece together his team all season long. This usually spells doom, but in this case, Rob has turned it into five wins. Rob can pin his success on two factors. First, Ray Rice has development into a top-five fantasy back. His 260ppg average can mask a lot of problems. Second, Rob has navigated through injury/suspension pot holes with excellent weekly pick ups and a deep bench. McNabb goes down? No problem, Eli steps in. Marshall starts off slow? He slides in Hines Ward, who plays like he’s in his prime. Calvin Johnson gets hurt? No concern, I’ll pick up every WR cut by Murray (Burelson, Rice) and he’ll crack 300+. I have a hole at defense? I’ll just wait to Molly cuts the Colts and let them roll up 300+ points.
I WAS WRONG – Again, so far, I’m not wrong. I had Rob as the 7th best team and right now he’s sixth in scoring. However, what I didn’t foresee happening and he did, was Ray Rice developing into a stud back. Usually if a first-round pick becomes a bust (LT?), teams are in trouble, but Rice is a star and you need star power to go deep into the post-season.
GOD I LOVE STATS – If Rob can finish the regular season 3-3, he will have the most wins ever in the regular season in his long Robioland career.
X-FACTOR – Pierre Thomas. It’s becoming clear that LT is at best, a servicable backup. This means Rob needs Thomas. After returning from injury, it looked like Thomas was about to hand Rob a second top-eight back, but over the last two weeks, something odd has happened. The Saints are giving Mike Bell more and more carries, including goal line. That’s not good news for Masterson.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – Rob will finally have his complete roster in his final six. His starting eight have yet to play a game together, so it’s tough to judge his boys. A ton of questions still need to be answer, so I’ll try to answer them now. Quarterback will become an issue from time-to-time. Both McNabb and Eli have shown signs of Down Syndrome (if I can borrow that phrase from Rob). Neither looks like a top-10 QB right now. I also suspect Pierre Thomas will not be a consistent 200-point threat. Having said that, Ray Rice is for real and is just as good as Adrian Peterson right now (probably better if you figure in his catching ability). His receivers are also solid and he could go three-wide if he so decides to when Calvin Johnson comes back. What does this all add up to? .500. He’ll beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams (as for losing to Bob, everyone gets upset every now and then). Rob will win eight, earning his first division title in Robioland. (WINS) Rich B., Colby, Robio (LOSES) Matt, Jeff, Bob
MATT MUSINGS – I need to extend a belated congrats to Masterson and family on their new addition. When you look at his roster, it would seem little Riley is the best seed Rob’s planted over the past six years, but what the hell do I know? He’s sitting at the top of his division with solid receivers, shaky QB’s, and what has turned out to be the perfect storm at RB. While no one is afraid of Rob now, I wouldn’t want to see him in our post-season when guys like McNabb/Manning, LT and Rice get rolling.
BEATING UP THE WEAK CAN ONLY GET YOU SO FAR – MOLLY COOMER, MOLLIPOP (4-3) SO FAR – If you just look at Molly’s roster throughout the weeks, you’d look at Molly’s four wins and think, she should feel lucky? Matt Forte has been the league’s biggest bust so far, Portis hsd one game over 170. She’s guessed wrong a few times picking between Warner and Flacco and she’s being throwing in one player after anothing to fill in at second receiver. Yet, here she is with a solid four wins, sitting only 7th in scoring. The trick is, she’s winning the games she’s suppose to, going 4-0 against Don, Bob, Colby and myself. We’re a combined 8-20, two of use are out of the playoffs, while Don and Colby are the current 7th and 8th seeds.
MY PRE-SEASON PREDICTION… I said in my predictions, “While I don’t see great numbers and a ton of 1,500-point games, Molly won’t have a lot of bad games.” I’ve been completely right. She has yet hit the 1,400-point mark, but has failed to score 1,000 only one time (in week one). However, the one thing I have been wrong about was, I really thought Forte would be the one superstar that made Molly a title contender.
GOD I LOVE STATS – Waiting for greatness? She may be the winningest team in the league, she hasn’t had a weekly high score in 29 weeks (Week Four, 2007).
X-FACTOR – No player has been a bigger flop than Matt Forte. He had one great game in week four (hey, that was against me). He’s cracked 100 points only one other time. His other four games, he’s averaged 65 freaking points. The question isn’t, when will he step up? The question is, how long does Molly wait to bench this guy?
SECOND HALF RESULTS – Forte has to get better, right? My answer is yes. I’m not predicting a dominating second half, but I have to believe the worst is over. Look for some 100-yard game and some touchdowns. Throw him in with an elite receiving due, if Austin really is for real (he is), two solid arms and an elite tight end. The problem is, Molly has a brutal schedule down the stretch. Like we’ve already pointed out, Molly ain’t great and hasn’t shown she can put up the really big numbers, but she’s taking on four teams that have been putting up 1,600-point games on a regular basics. I suspect she’ll lose three of those four. No sweat, she get three wins and take the fifth seed. (WINS) Bob, Eric, Don (LOSES) Griff, Matt, Rich C.
MATT MUSINGS – Molly’s having a pretty good season…for a girl! A playoff berth and an honorary penis could be in her future, provided the following “if’s” play out: the Fortis backfield pulls their heads out of their asses, Mendenhall turns out to be the real deal, Austin continues being the waiver pickup of the year; Drew Brees stays healthy, allowing Colston to flourish. Until that happens I’ll stick to my visual of Molly reaching into her Hello Kitty bag for her bedazzled Sidekick to fix her roster.
7th SEEDS REALLY WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS
DISAPPOINTMENT ME ONCE, SHAME ON ME – BOB CASTRONE, I PEEP FREELY (2-5) SO FAR – There probably hasn’t been a more stranger team than Bob’s bunch. He’s produced a 2,000-point game and a 1,600-point game, but he’s also failed to hit 1,000 twice. The last two weeks, he’s actually produced winnable scores, but walked away with a defeat both times. On the surface, he spent the first five weeks finding a good QB, which is never a good thing (his QB twice ended up on the weekly ‘All-Flop’ team), but if you dig deeper, the problem is RB. Chris Johnson and Kevin Jones were suppose to be a solid 1-2 combo, but between the two, they’ve combined for only three games over 200 points (One of course was the 600+ game by Johnson). Unfortunetly Bob, both are trapped on really bad teams and it’s costing them stats.
MY PRE-SEASON PREDICTION… Outside of Jeff and Don (and maybe Griff too), these may turn out to be my most impressive and accurate predictions. I said Bob would struggle out of the gate, but would turn it around in the second half after some add/drops and trades, then make a stunning push as a bottom seed in the post-season. Of course if he doesn’t turn it around and misses the playoffs, he’s going to make my predictions look stupid.
GOD I LOVE STATS – No worries, one 2-5 team in league history has won a championship. Guess who? His name starts with ‘R’ and sounds like Fabio.
X-FACTOR – Philip Rivers. I bet you thought I was going to say Chris Johnson or Kevin Smith. In reality, I expect Bob’s backs to get back on track. This league is a quarterback league now and you need a stud throwing the ball. Rivers can be a 400-point guy. Bob will need those kind of points if he’s going to defeat teams like Jeff/Brady, Matt/Rogers and Griff/Schaub.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – In 1979, Coach Howard Schnellenberger called the Miami Hurricanes a ‘Sleeping Giant’. The rest was history. Every year in fantasy football, there is a sleeping giant. A good team that has a rough and tumble regular season, sneaks into the post-season as a low seed and then unleashes the damage. Is Bob that team? No, but he could be. Everything is falling on the shoulders of Chris Johnson. He needs, dare I say, must be an elite back. It also wouldn’t hurt if Kevin Jones could stop being “just good enough.” The talent is here (although losing Cooley for the year won’t help). He just needs that running game. I’m actually going to go out on a limb here and say Bob drops two of his next three, then will win his final three, beating Colby in week thirteen to earn that final playoff spot. However, I can also easily see him losing to Colby that final week and miss the post-season. (WINS) Jeff, Rob M., Robio, Colby (LOSES) Molly, Rich B.
MATT MUSINGS – It looks like the highlight of Bob’s season will be his Puddle Of Mud deli encounter on draft day. His team’s really not that bad, especially after upgrading his QB situation. Things might be looking up when Gonzalez returns, provided his opponents don’t continue to put up 1700+ each week.
FINALLY ACTING LIKE A DEFENDING CHAMP – DON VOZZOLA, GATOR NATION (3-4) SO FAR – It’s been all MJD. He’s been the only sure-thing on the defending champs roster, producing one 200-point game and two 400-point games, failing to hit 100 only once. Everyone else has been inconsistent. Right now, Jennings looks like the second best receiver in Geen Bay (behind Driver), producing only two 200-point games, while Don has been forced to roll with Lee Evans, as Houshmandzadeh has been a bust in Seattle (minus one game). Grant has done okay, always seeming to produce around 150-180 points (except for one big outing in week seven), but the secret to this team’s fortune is simple…it’s Tony Romo. The Cowboys QB has had four solid games, In four good games this season, he’s averaging 404ppg. Don is 3-1 in those games. In two bad games, he’s averaged 82.5ppg and Don is 0-2. He’s also 0-1 when Romo went on a bye-week.
MY PRE-SEASON PREDICTION… Rarely do my top teams ever really do well. In 2008, my top team was Colby. He won the division, but was an unimpressive 7-6. In 2007, it was Masterson. He won five games that year. In 2006, I said Griff would repeat as champ. He went 7-6, bowing out in round one. You get the idea. Don is just doing what he’s suppose to do…not live up to the pre-season hype.
GOD I LOVE STATS – At 3-4, sitting at the cusp of the post-season, Don has this league right where he wants him. Three of the last four league champions were 3-4 at the break.
X-FACTOR – Ryan Grant. He was the X-factor prior to the season and he remains one now. He hasn’t been that bad. His worse game was 117 and his second worse game was 154. Yet, it took to week seven before he finally had a breakout game (306 points). Five games under 200 is unacceptable from a back on a great Packers offense, when he doesn’t really share carries with anyone. Just imagine what a Ronnie Brown or a Felix Jones could do if they got 26, 24 and 27 carries in a game.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – How’s Don been in the second half? Who cares…he’s all about just getting in and win three in a row. Nothing before that matters. First, I love the Orton pick up. If Don plays his cards right, he can avoid Romo’s slip ups, which has really been a problem. In reality, I really believe (TE) Carlson will get his act together and play strong down the stretch and look for the Ravens D to get better when the weather gets colder. This leaves 2nd WR as the only concern spot, but Don’s got good enough talent to rotate in. The biggest issue though is the schedule. No one has a more brutal stretch run than the Gator Nation. He still has to take on five of the top six scoring teams in the league. There’s little room for error. Look for the defending champ to split his final six and get the 7th seed. (WINS) Robio, Colby, Rich C (LOSES) Jeff, Molly, Matt
MATT MUSINGS – Don joins Griff and Greenblatt as one of three teams that might never lose another game. I’m just shocked that he’s managed to lose 4 this early in the year. I have to say, the biggest disappointment about Don is other than getting it done from a football standpoint, he really doesn’t do anything to give us any material. So is he really just a rich man’s Dave???
HEADING THE WRONG WAY
EVEN TWO ACES IN POKER DOESN’T GUARANTEE A WIN – COLBY HALL, QUARTER POUNDERS (3-4) SO FAR – Two players. That’s what this team has been about. Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne. Excluding their bye-week, Manning/Wayne account for 54% of the Pounders point production. Of course, that’s not such a bad number when you consider those two average 625 combined points per game. Hell, you could probably call it a three-man team with the Steelers. When you factor his defensive points, those three combine for 69% of Colby’s points. Of course he’s needed every ounce of points from the three as he spent the whole first half of the season trying to fill massive holes at running backs, second receiver and tight end. At this point, he should feel blessed to be at 3-4, smack in the middle of the playoff hunt.
MY PRE-SEASON PREDICTION…was pretty good. I said he was the 8th best team and he’s currently ninth in scoring. He’s a respectable 3-4, but its looking more and more like he’s benefiting from a bad division. His current four-game losing streak means he’s going to have to fight for a playoff spot, something I thought the Pounders would fail to do.
GOD I LOVE STATS – Colby is on pace to finish with two ‘All-Robio’ players. Surprisingly, this is nothing new. Ever season in Robioland Football, at least one team has had two ‘All-Robio’ players. Of course no one with two ‘All-Robio’ players has missed the post-season. X-FACTOR – Knowshon Moreno. So far, Moreno has not been great (never hitting 200), but he’s been good (breaking 150 points three out of his last five). With Manning, Wayne and the Steelers D, Colby doesn’t need Moreno to be great. He just needs him to be good, since he’s currently the only ‘starting’ running back on his roster.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – Forget the record, forget the three-game winning streak, forget the four-game losing streak…I will say this…Colby team is better now than it was at the beginning of the season. Moreno is a actual starting running back, Vernon Davis could be a top-five TE down the stretch and the Broncos D will be a solid combo with the Steelers. Having said that, he’s still two players short (at 2nd RB and 2nd WR). Don’t get me wrong, players like Felix Jones and Maclin and Knox can certainly put up a big game, but is it enough? In reality, the Pounders are the toughest team to predict. I do know with Manning/Wayne, Colby can take care of business against me and Eric. He also could beat Rich C, Don, Rob M and Bob. However, he could just as easily lose to everyone (except me of course). I’m going to stick with my pre-season prediction. Colby will finish 2-4 down the stretch and miss the playoffs. (WINS) Eric, Robio (LOSES) Rich C, Don, Rob M, Bob
MATT MUSINGS – When you factor in all the help I’ve given Colby via trades over our time in this league with the fact that he has Manning and Wayne, you’d think he’d be a lot better. As long as the Broncos stay on fire, the Pounders will flirt with the playoffs, but there’s just too many question marks to think this team will go all the way. That is, unless he pulls off a trade for a resurgent Cadillac Williams. But knowing Colby, he’ll offer me the Broncos D for Gore and Welker.
STILL NOT BUYING
IF YOU TRADE HIM, BURRIER PROBABLY WILL TAKE HIM – RICH BURRIER, JOHN MAYER (3-4) SO FAR – If you told me that Brandon Jacobs and Michael Turner would combined for one 100-yard game at this point in the season, and then told me that Rich would still win three games and be in the thick of the playoff race, I would laugh in your face and probably punch you. Yet, here we are. How? It’s a little luck, considering he’s broken 1,400 only once (this past week). Secondly, after falling out of the gate with three-straight loses, he didn’t sit on his ass and wait for success. He went out and pulled off some trades. So far, the biggest shock has been at QB. Palmer when healthy has produced some solid stats, while Celek has been the one sleeper tight end that has actually paid off.
MY PRE-SEASON PREDICTION… I picked Rich to finished 10th and right now he’s 9th in the standings, so far, so good. I felt his receiving core would be his downfall, but he’s certainly gone out of his way to improve that. However, unless his backs can return to No 1 RB status, this current three-game ride will be the highlight of the season.
GOD I LOVE STATS – Rich is trying to become the first person not named “Robio” to start the season 0-4 and make it to the post-season.
X-FACTOR – Carson Palmer. I bet you thought I was going to say a running back? Dumbass. In reality, it would be nice if Jacobs can get his act together, but if he can’t, Rich could always rely on Turner (he does have seven touchdowns) and go three wide with Avery. The key to three wide though is great QB play. Palmer has been a solid 250-pt scorer and he needs to bump that up to a solid-300-pt average.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – While Burrier’s boys are not bad, I think they’re just a tad below the rest. I don’t think Palmer or Driver are frauds, but I truly believe their best weeks are behind them. Jacobs’ is the second best back for the Giants and the Giants know that. Michael Turner is getting touchdowns, but his yards aren’t going to improve as he suffers through the post-370 carries (from the year before) curse. What am I saying? I’m saying Burrier ain’t going back to the playoffs. (WINS) Rich C, Bob (LOSES) Rob M, Jeff, Eric, Griff
MATT MUSINGS – My wife doesn’t need working ears to know how bad John Mayer is. You can smell this turd from a mile away. Carson Palmer is Carson Palmer again, Donald Driver is ageless, and I’m sure Michael Turner will eventually return to form, but with injuries, piss poor attitudes resulting in suspensions, and two high draft picks from the NFC East, the supporting cast just isn’t there. Where’s A-Train when you need him?
AND WITH THE FIRST PICK IN ’09…
ERIC IS MAKING ME LOOK SMART – ERIC VOZZOLA, THE SWAMP (2-5) SO FAR – Actually, seeing Eric struggling at 2-5 is just gods way of righting things. It just never seemed right having Eric in the post-season, did it? So what has gone wrong? Many things is the easy answer. Eric rolled the dice on another veteren running back in the first round and got burned again (In the past, Westbrook, Alexander, Jordan). He passed on the big arms (that were available) and went with Cutler for his QB. All he’s done is give Eric -450 points due to 10 interceptions. Lance Moore bombed (E’s second-straight Category two bust), which forced Lil’ E to go with Santana Moss and we all know if you have to reach for Santana Moss, receiving core is in trouble. Yet, he’s still produce more than Steve Smith (Carolina). Oh and I’m not even going to talk about the Titans, out of respect for my dear cousin. The lone highlight? Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat. Despite Ricky Williams stealing carries and touchdowns (three last game), Brown is sixth in fantasy points among backs.
MY PRE-SEASON PREDICTION… Another solid pick for me. I really was on my game at least in predictions. Drafting…not so much. I said Eric would be 11th and he’s currently, go ahead and say it proudly, 11th.
GOD I LOVE STATS – If Eric finishes 11th, it would be the third time Eric has “earned” the second pick in the draft. In fact, he’s ‘earned’ one of the top three picks seven times in his carrier. This would be the 8th time.
X-FACTOR – Jake Delhomme. Wait, what? He’s not on Eric’s roster. True, but Steve Smith is and he was drafted to be a No 1 receiver, but has played like a No 3 receiver too often thanks to Delhomme being the worst QB this side of JaMarcus Russell.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – The only sad part about all this is that Eric and I won’t face off for the race to the bottom. When there’s only been one bright spot (Ronnie Brown) all season long, you know you’re in trouble. Don’t get me wrong, Lil’ E will give some teams some fits, simply because Cutler, Westbrook and Steve Smith can, from time to time, have solid games, but it’s going to be a long second half for Eric. (WINS) Rich B (LOSES) Matt, Colby, Molly, Griff, Jeff
MATT MUSINGS – If there’s one positive thing to say about Eric, it’s that at least he’s not Robio. With Westbrook, Cutler, S. Moss, Smith, and Winslow, it seems Eric acquired every fantasy flop this year that isn’t Matt Forte. Eric, here’s a winning strategy for you – start both of those Dolphins RBs, throw those fraternity letters on (even though they’re sub par to AXP!), and pick up some easy Florida tail. USE CAUTION, though, because based on your fantasy selections, you’ll pick another bust and end up with the clap.
WORST TEAM EVER? – ROBIO MURRAY, CANE MUTINY (0-7) SO FAR – Fuck me. That’s really all I can add to this sad, pathetic season. Outside of QB, everything has gone wrong. This truly was my worst draft ever and I clearly have what can be the worst receiving core in the history of football. In fact, Jeremy Shockey’s 102 yards this past week is the first time I’ve had a starter break 100 yards receiving. As I’ve already discuseed, so many mistakes were made during the draft. My goal was to land a elite WR in the first, then take a RB (Ronnie Brown) in the second. In the third, I’d take Tony Gonzalez, followed by DeSean Jackson a few picks later (obviously Jackson was taken earlier). That was the goal. Of course, Barber fell to me and my stratagy and my season was blown out of the water.
MY PRE-SEASON PREDICTION… I didn’t expect greatness, but I don’t feel like putting me sixth was that crazy. While I would never be shocked to see one of my receivers blow it, I didn’t expect both my receivers and tight end to blow it.
GOD I LOVE STATS – I’m one loss away from breaking the record for most loses to open a season. I’ll also tie David for longest losing streak in league history.
X-FACTOR – Matt Ryan. In reality, I have none. I’m 0-7. I would have to go 6-0 to make the playoffs. That ain’t going to happen. However, I need Ryan to keep development into a solid QB (so far, he hasn’t, although he hasn’t progessed either). I need him to be solid so I don’t waste a pick on a QB next year.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – There are going to be a lot of loses still to come. Sad. There is no reason to believe my boys can pull off an upset. My receivers have done nothng and Steve Smith has done even less since being traded to me. Ryan is not Rivers and only DeAngelo Williams can sniff 300 fantasy points. Yet, I am giving myself one win against a power house, Griff. Am I high? Probably. There’s two reasons. First, I own Griff. I’m 11-4 aginst the Pizza Man. Second, the week I face Griff, he loses both his running backs. (WINS) Griff (LOSES) Don, Rich C, Colby, Bob, Rob M
MATT MUSINGS – If you think Joe Pinzone is the biggest loser you know, you haven’t been paying attention to the Cane Mutiny this season. OOOF! It starts at the top for Robio. Marion Barber has been underwhelming and injured, it took him six weeks to get anything out of his world beater keeper, DeAngelo Williams, and his current team looks nothing like the one he drafted. It looks like next year will be a good measure for the “you had the first overall pick,” remark that Robio always jabs with, because he will most certainly have it.
GAMES TO WATCH:
SECOND HALF MATCH UPS I CARE MORE ABOUT THAN THE BIRTH OF MY CHILD
Week Eight Gator Nation vs. Cane Mutiny Why do I care? There is something fitting about having Don, the man who has kept me from two titles over the last three years, sending me into the record books, tying the league mark for longest losing streak in league history (nine). Week Nine Dirty Sanchez vs. Vick in a Box The measurement stick game. They’ll be no more excuses for Masterson. If he wants to be mentioned with the big boys, he’s going to need to beat a big boy. Rob will have no bye-week issues this week, while Matt will lose Peterson and the Jets Defense.
Week Ten – Vick in a Box vs. The Griffters This is easy. Jeff beat Griff. Matt beat Griff. If the circle of life is to be complete, then Griff needs to beat Matt. In reality, we’re looking at a potential championship game preview.
Week Eleven – Gator Nation vs. That Fishy Smell The best team to ever miss the post-season was me in 2005, when I missed the playoffs, despite finishing 5th in scoring. One of these teams could end up beating that mark and it easily can be decided in this game.
Week Twelve – The Griffters vs. Otis Murray This one is easy. They’re the top two scoring teams, they are a combined 11-3 and in week twelve they could be facing off for the division. Week Thirteen Quarter Pounders vs. I peep Freely Currently, Colby is riding a four-game losing streak while Bob is at 2-5, on a three-game losing streak. Rarely does a match up in week 13 put one team into the playoffs, leaving the loser out. This could be that game.
ROBIO’S PREDICTIONS: 2nd HALF RESULTS
MANHATTAN DIVISION VICK IN A BOX: 11-2 He loses only one more game, earning his second division title, win scoring title and earn his first top seed. MOLLIPOP: 7-6 She’s got a tough six weeks, but all she needs to do is split and she’s in. THAT FISHY SMELL: 6-7 He has the points to win tiebreakers, which is what will get him into the post-season. GATOR NATION: 6-7 He’s going to need to pull off at least one “upset” to get in. He’ll do it and sneak in by points.
BROOKLYN DIVISION THE GRIFFTERS: 10-3 Coomer takes down Jeff in week 12 and wins the division on total points. Welcome to the dreaded 2nd seed. OTIS MURRAY/KNIGHTS: 10-3 The storyline for the second half of the season will be the battle between Griff/Jeff. JOHN MAYER: 5-8 Of the four loses I predicted in the 2nd half, two are winnable (Rob M & Eric). Let’s see if Rich can prove me wrong. THE SWAMP: 3-10 The good news is, in next year’s draft, Eric will land either Peterson, Tom Brady or Drew Brees
JERSEY DIVISION DIRTY SANCHEZ: 8-5 Rob’s teams always fall apart, but this year will be different and Rob will earn his first division. I PEEP FREELY: 6-7 Bob benefits from being in the league’s weakest division. QUARTER POUNDERS: 5-8 It’s hard to imagine a team with two ‘All-Robio’ players, missing the post-season. CANE MUTINY: 1-12 And with the first pick in the 2010 draft is…
PLAYOFFS
QUARTER FINALS #8 I Peep Freely over #1 Vick in a Box #7 Gator Nation over #2 The Griffters #3 Dirty Sanchez over #6 That Fishy Smell #5 Mollipop over #4 Otis Murray & The Knights
ROBIO’S THOUGHTS: Matt becomes the best first-round loser — Don wins his third straight as a 7-seed — Masterson is the only top seed to escape the 1st Rd — Molly continues the shocking first round. ROBIO’S THOUGHTS: Bob becomes the first 8-seed to reach the finals, making the regular season worthless again — Masterson has never been to the finals…recently, the finals is a second home to Don. ROBIO’S THOUGHTS: Tons of story lines, the first 8 vs 7 seed title game. Don going for the first repeat since 2000…but Bob will ruin Don’s dreams and become only the third two-time career league champion (Robio & Don).
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