Did you know I hate keepers? Can’t stand them. I miss the old days when a season was a season. Each team, no matter how good or how bad they did the year before, started a new season with a clean slate. Yet oddly enough, keepers is one of the few things I have let the league vote on and twice I’ve been on the losing side of the vote.

So I went out of my way to devise the perfect keeper system, trying desperately to not do the usual; three guys drafted after the 10th round. God I always hated that. Let’s just be honest, any amazing pick that late is just luck, so why would anyone want luck playing such an important role for multiple seasons? I never quite got it. Anyhow, my first attempt wasn’t too successful either. Let’s take a walk back to the 2004 draft (the year before was when we decided to do keepers).

– Back then, you could keep any two players, using your first two picks. You could also keep a third guy, but it had to be someone you drafted after the 8th round and you had to use your third pick to keep him. Man, I hated that system quickly. Even before the season ended, I vowed to change it.

– Starting with the 2005 draft, I switched to ‘Categories’. There were three Cats; Rounds 1-3, Rounds 4-7, Round 8-15. Any player you kept would be kept in the round they were drafted (you could not keep free agent picks ups, unless they were drafted by another team). The following year, they would move up to the bottom pick of the next category. Every year they would move up to the next category, until they were a first round pick.

– In 2006, we made one minor adjustment. Before, a player kept in Category one would move up one round per year. I made it two rounds per year.

– With the 2007 draft, we switched up the rounds within the categories. The three Cats became; Rounds 1-5, Rounds 6-10, Rounds 11-15. Another big change was free agent keepers. For the first time ever, we allowed free agent pick ups to be kept. I gave each position a slot in Category Two; RB (6th), WR (7th), QB (8th), TE (9th) and DST (10th).

– In 2008, we had one very important change…no more permanent keepers. Prior to ’08, you could keep a guy forever, but the new rule put a three-year limitation in place.

– This year, there will be no changes. However…

I will be debuting a new formula for free agent pick ups for next year. I’m considering scrapping the current system of position slots, to CBS Draft Average. Let me give you a example. I picked up (WR) Bryant, who was undrafted, so I can keep him in the 7th round. However, if we used draft average, I’d have to use a sixth round pick. As you can see here, on average, Bryant is the 65th pick, which in a 12-team league like ours, makes him a sixth rounder.

One more example: Rob Masterson picked up (RB) Pierre Thomas. He can keep him in the sixth round in our current system. In the CBS Draft Average, he is the 32nd pick, so under this system, Rob would need to use a third-round pick if he want to keep him. That’s where he would keep in the following year if he kept him for a third season.

Again, I’m going to think it over, but feel free to give me your input. Like I said, this is not for this year’s draft, but next years. I would want to make any decision though before this season started. While, there are really only a handful of true free agents kept every year, this would have an impact. The main reason for doing it would be to not reward FA pick ups so much. If some lucky person is able to land a top-five back in free agency, we want him to have to pay some price for him.

Anyhow, I’m rambling. Let’s talk about this year’s keepers.

More to the point, let’s talk about Robio’s 2009 Keeper Predictions. I’ve listed who I think everyone will keep and I’ve ranked each team. The ranking is not based solely on who you’re keeping. It’s based on where you’re keeping them, plus where you are drafting in this year’s draft.

#1 Bob Castrone

3rd Rd – Anquan Boldin, WR (ARI) 7th Rd – Chris Johnson, RB (TEN) 13th Rd – Derrick Ward, RB (TB) It’s a solid year for keepers. In fact, in CBS’s most recent mock draft, six of the top seven picks are being kept in our league. In fact, four teams could argue that they will walk into the 2009 season with the best keeper options. For now, I’ve giving it to Bob. In Cat One, he’s got plenty of star power; Manning, Boldin and Gates, but with Boldin, he gets a No 1 receiver. In Cat two, Bob gets a first-round worthy back in the 7th. Johnson will most likely be a pre-season ‘All-Robio’ back. It is unlikely that Ward will be a full-time starter at his new home in the Bay of Tampa, but Castrone has nothing else at this point, so Ward’s a good pick that late.

#2 Robio Murray

5th Rd – DeAngelo Williams, RB (CAR) 7th Rd – Antonio Bryant, WR (TB) 15th Rd – Matt Ryan, QB (ATL) Last year I ranked myself last in keepers. This year, I head into the 2009 draft with three starters. There is no debate whether to keep Williams in the 5th over Westbrook in the 1st or Smith in the 5th. Williams finished 2008 as the No 1 back and is a sure-fire first-round pick. Sure I’m not expected him to put up the same numbers as last year, but let’s not forget his yards per run/average has gone up half a yard in each year he’s been in the league. While Bryant had a breakout year, making him an elite receiver in 2008, no one really expects him to put up identical numbers with a new quarterback in TB. However, he’s still a solid No 2 pair of hands in the 7th. Although, keeping Kurt Warner in the 8th is still a possibility. Last year, I took Matt Ryan in the 14th rd and made him a practice player. Now I get an top-ten QB in the 15th round for three more years. Ryan is suppose to be special and now has Tony Gonzalez, so I don’t really see a sophomore slump here. If he can put up Aaron Rogers-type numbers, the league is in trouble.

#3 Matt Neatock

2nd Rd – Adrian Peterson, RB (MIN) 10th Rd – Aaron Rogers, QB (GB) 13th Rd – Wes Welker, WR (NE) Even Neatock will have trouble screwing up 2009. He gets the top pick in the draft to go along with three solid keepers, including one final year with Peterson. However, Purple Jesus is actually more valuable this season. Last year (after Matt won the title), A.P. cost Matt the 13th pick, but this year, he’s the last pick in the second round (24th). Value, baby! If Matt grabs the right guy with the first pick, he could have one of the best running back duos in the league. On top of that, he gets a top-five quarterback in the 10th round, although knowing Matt, he’ll keep the mighty Brett Celek in the 10th instead. In Category 3, Matt gets one more year of Wes Welker. While Welker’s stats dropped a bit last season, with Brady back, Wes should be considered a decent No 2 receiver. The only thing Matt has to figure out is, with these keepers, plus the top pick, plus a high-end receiver (most likely) early in the third, how to stay under the cap. Matt will have to be creative to stay under the $135 salary cap with so much star power.

#4 Rich Calderon

3rd Rd – Drew Brees, QB (NO) 10th Rd – Steve Slaton, RB (HOU)  Calderon lands two guaranteed stars this season. He’s got Drew Brees for one more season in Category One (thank you, Rich Burrier), but most importantly, he lands a first-round running back all the way back in the 10th round. Two players, two potential ‘All-Robio’ players. In category three, why waste a pick on either Curtis or Boss. Neither will ever start for him. He might as well save the picks to try to grab a couple of potential 2009 sleeper picks.

#5 Molly Coomer

1st Rd – Clinton Portis, RB (WAS) 6th Rd – Matt Forte, RB (CHI) 13th Rd – Dallas Clark, TE (IND) Mrs. Coomer is the only person who nailed down two starting running backs for 2009 in the 2008 draft. While Portis has lost some of his touch, because Molly is drafting in the back half of the first round, it’s about where he will be drafted, if he wasn’t kept. She’s better off not risking it and just keeping him. However, the real win in this year’s keeper class is last year’s third best back, Matt Forte, in the 6th round. In the back half, she gets an elite tight end for one more season in the 13th. With three starters, Molly has plenty of options available to her in round 2-4, most likely letting her grab an elite WR in the first and a solid No 2 with her third pick (or a top-end quarterback).

#6 Don Vozzola

1st Rd – Maurice Jones-Drew, RB (JAX) 9th Rd – Greg Jennings, WR (GB)  The senior Vozzola lands in the sixth spot, mostly because of ‘when’ he’s getting his keepers. First though, Don loses Terrell Owens for the first time in three seasons. The controversial receiver twice led a three-headed receiving core to two titles, becoming the first two-time champion receiver in our league (on the same team). However, with his upcoming free agency, Don can keep Jones-Drew. In CBS’s mock draft, MJD was going fifth, which means in our league, he probably would have been the top pick in the draft (over Westbrook). Instead, Don gets him 12 picks later. In Cat 2, Vozzola gets to keep the Packers’ top receiver for one final year. Jennings remains a low-end No 1 receiver, with the potential to be ‘All-Robio’ WR. In Cat 3, Don does have options; Dallas D in the 12th, Bruce in the 13th and Sammy Morris also in the 13th. All three are at best backups in our league, although Bruce could still be a productive low-end two receiver. For now, I think Don passes on all three.

#7 Rob Masterson

4th Rd – Darren McFadden, RB (OAK) 6th Rd – Pierre Thomas, RB (NO) 11th Rd – Brandon Marshall, WR (DEN) Masterson is the second team to have two potential starting running backs, however, unlike Molly’s two (who we can guarantee will be worth starting in week one), Rob’s backs are little more unseasoned, which is why he’s at No 7, although if they all live up to the promise, this could be an elite keeper trio. Here’s what we know. McFadden was ravaged by injuries in his rookie campaign. He’s still a solid talent and the Raiders want him to be the man. Rob would be stupid not to keep him (especially because he PP’ed him, so he can keep him in the 4th round). The question on draft day is, can Rob rely on him to start? In the 6th Rd, we have Thomas, a late-season free agent pick up. Rarely do late season RB pick ups become stars, but Thomas was clearly the man in NO with Bush injured and McAllister gone. As far as we can tell, Pierre is the starter for the Saints (Bush will continue to do what he does). This means Thomas could put up solid numbers, making him a low-end No 1 back. Again though, ‘potentially’ is the key word. Masterson has another early first-round pick this season and again will have another tough decision. Does he trust that these two backs can get it done (maybe grab another back in the back-end of the second) and grab the No 1 receiver in the first? Or does he just grab the best back available and hope that two of the three become stars? Tough call. Good luck with that. Anyhow, in the 11th, Masterson gets Marshall one last season. However, Brandon has a new coach and a new quarterback, so at best he’s probably a No 2 receiver.

#8 Griff Coomer

5th Rd – Roddy White, WR (ATL) 6th Rd – Ryan Grant, RB (GB) 13th Rd – Jason Witten, TE (DAL) In Category One, it’s an easy call. Griff lands a top-five receiver all the way back in the fifth round. White is a star and can’t be passed up. In round two, it’s a little bit more shaky. He’s got a couple of young receivers; Avery in the 7th round and Royal in the 9th. He also had Schaub at QB in the 8th. If he can stay healthy, Schaub is a top-five arm. However, there are a lot of running backs being kept late this season (thanks to a solid draft last year), so getting No 1 backs will be tough. While Grant stumbled last season in the Green Bay backfield, he still walks into 2009 as the clear first option in GB. If he can bounce back, look out. In Cat 3, Griff again gets the league’s No 1 tight end (when healthy) late in the 13th round.

#9 Richard Burrier

2nd Rd – Michael Thomas, RB (ATL) You know you had a rough 2009 draft when there is no one, not a single player worthy to keep in the last ten rounds. This is what you get when you keep drafting Ben Watson. In reality, Rich could keep Eli in the 8th or Ted Ginn in the 10th, but why bother? Despite a lack of keepers though, I still have Burrier in the 9th spot. That’s because he still gets to keep the second best back in football deep in the second round. Add in the fact that he has a top pick in the first round, Burrier could walk away with a solid backfield after one good pick.

#10 Jeff Greenblatt

3rd Rd – Tom Brady, QB (NE) 6th Rd – Ernest Graham, RB (TB) 13th Rd – Owen Daniels, TE (HOU) Greenblatt takes over and he already has a lot of work to do. First, the cupboard was left nearly empty. The only stud he gets to keep is Brady, but even he is coming off that ACL injury. While I don’t foresee him throwing another 55 touchdowns, he still should be a top-five QB if the O-line holds up. In Category Two though, decisions have to be made. It seems like Jeff has every decent-could-be-good back in the league. McClain had a decent second half run last year, but he’s being moved to full back. Leon Washington could be the best back in NY, but he probably still won’t start, and he’ll probably lose a carry or two to the new rookie. This leaves Ernest Graham. He suffered a season ending injury late last season, but he’ll still be starting in 2009. However, with Ward in TB now, he’ll be sharing carries. No matter who Jeff keeps, he’ll probably still have to draft two running backs early in the draft. In Cat 3, Jeff gets a top-five TE for one more year.

#11 Colby Hall

9th Rd – Felix Jones, RB (DAL) There’s no team I’m more baffled about than Colby’s Pounders. There are six-to-seven potential keepers, yet I only have him keeping one; a guy who didn’t even start last season, a guy who got hurt before the midway point, a guy who won’t start this season. How did we get to this point? First, despite big names like LT and Lynch in Cat One, Colby doesn’t need to keep them. LT would probably fall to him in the first (or at least a back as good as LT) and with Lynch’s suspension, he’s now a reach in the early half of the second. For now, I have him keeping no one up top, but that could change. In Cat 2, Colby has a decent receiver in Berrian and a good running back in Hightower in the 6th. He could also keep an elite D in the 7th with the Steelers, but personally, I’m looking for Colby to roll the dice. If you watched any Dallas games last season, you would know that Felix Jones was pretty special. Every time he touched the ball, he could score. While he still won’t start, if Dallas was smart (and that’s very questionable at this point), Jones would touch the ball a lot, 12-15 times per game. If so, he could be a Chris Johnson-type back, which would make him a steal in the 9th round.

#12 Eric Vozzola

5th Rd – Tony Romo, QB (DAL) 7th Rd – Lance Moore, WR (NO) In reality, Eric’s keepers aren’t half bad. When healthy and with Owens gone, Romo is still a game-changer and a stat machine. He’s a top-five quarterback and would not last to the fifth round. After last seasons amazing running back struggles, I don’t see Eric pulling off a shocker and keeping Fitzgerald in the first round. However, he could surprise us with Steve Smith in the 4th round. The reason being, Romo has only one more year as a keeper, while Smith has two. Also, in mock drafts, Smith goes late in the second round, while Romo goes early in the fifth. It really depends on what Eric finds more valuable, an elite receiver or a top-end quarterback. In Cat two, he could keep Cassell in the 8th round if he rolls with Smith. The Chiefs have a solid receiving core, so Cassell could be pretty damn good. However, Moore proved to be a pretty good No 2 receiver last season. In Cat 3, I have Eric keeping no one, but Kevin Walter has the potential to be a solid No 2 receiver.