Welcome to the 2009 Fantasy Football Mid-Season Predictions. I’ll be honest, this was the most difficult mid-season report I’ve had to do. There are at least six to eight teams who could easily win this thing and I wouldn’t be a bit surprised. In fact, writing this damn thing took forever because A) I kept taking porn breaks and B) because I kept flip-flopping on some of the teams. You figure it out. We have seven winning teams in two divisions, the two 5-win teams are currently 8th (Dave) and 11th (Burrier) in scoring, all while nine teams are within 1,000 points of the scoring leader Bob.
As for the mid-season report, like last year, I placed all the teams into categories, but within those categories, the teams are not ranked. So although I write about Bob first, it doesn’t mean I think he’s better than Burrier…even though I do. Also, last year Richard Burrier gave us his personal thoughts and they were wonderful indeed. However, in Robioland and unlike the Republican party, we’re all about inclusion here, so this year we went with a different Rich…Calderon. Rich did not see my thoughts and I didn’t see his prior to writing. He offered up his own personal take on each team, along with his own post-season predictions. Looking at them now, there is a surprisingly good amount of agreement.
Before we get started, let’s look at some history.
How were our former champs doing at the halfway point?
1999 – Robio Murray started 4-3 After an average beginning, Robio finish the regular season 7-0 (only perfect 2nd half). 2000 – Robio Murray started 6-1 Robio’s greatest start, but was only average down the stretch at 4-3, earning 2nd seed. 2001 – Jason Carpenter started 5-2 Good start for Jason, but a even better finish at 6-1, taking the top seed. 2002 – Robio Murray started 2-5 This season gives everyone hope. Finished a solid 6-1 and earned the third seed. 2003 – Burrier Bruisers started 4-3 Not overwhelming, but 4-3 was good enough to give him the division and 3rd seed. 2004 – Bob Castrone started 4-3 Bob rolled at the end, going 6-1, winning the division and taking the 2nd seed. 2005 – Griff Coomer started 3-4 Griff finished with a 5-1 record. He didn’t win the division, so he got the 4th seed. 2006 – Don Vozzola started 5-2 First champ to have a losing record in second half of season at 2-4, earning the 7th seed. 2007 – Matt Neatock started 3-4 Second team to start 1-4 and win the championship, winning seven of his last nine.
Ignore Don who finished 2-4 in ’06, the basic rule is, forget the first half. If you want to win the title, finish strong. The champs have a combined 44-16 record in the second half of the regular season.
FIRST-HALF PLAYERS
FIRST TEAM, ALL-ROBIO QB – Drew Brees (Rich C) – Last year’s best trade for Calderon. RB – Clinton Portis (Molly) – Can you smell 2,000 yards? RB – Steven Jackson (Griff) – Two great games makes a stud. WR – Larry Fitzgerald (Eric) – He just catches balls. WR – Greg Jennings (Don) – Brett Favre who? TE – Jason Witten (Griff) – Blowing away every other TE. PK – Matt Prater (Molly) – The Broncos do score a lot. DST – Titans DST (Rob M) – They are dominating right now.
SECOND TEAM, ALL-ROBIO QB – Jay Cutler (Molly) – On top, until recent slide. RB – Marion Barber (Rich B) – He’s been a machine. RB – Frank Gore (Rich B) – In Mike Martz we trust. WR – Roddy White (Griff) – All this with a rookie arm. WR – Andre Johnson (Robio) – 30 catches in the last 3 games. TE – Owen Daniels (David) – Yep, Daniels has been on fire. PK -Ryan Longwell (Griff) – Dome kickers always do well. DST – Steelers DST (Colby) – Only one bad game so far.
THE ALL-ROOKIE TEAM QB – Matt Ryan (Robio) – He’s a PP, so he can’t be ROY. RB – Matt Forte (Molly) – His rushing yards have dipped lately. RB -Chris Johnson (Bob) – A LeDale ACL tear from greatness. WR – DeSean Jackson (Bob) – Stud in the happening. WR – Eddie Royal (Griff) – Solid first game, but slow since then. TE -Dustin Keller (Rob M) – It’s a rough year for rookie TE’s. PK – Dan Carpenter (FA) – Never heard of him before now. DST -There are no rookie defenses
THE ALL-DISAPPOINTMENT TEAM QB – Carson Palmer (Matt) – He stinks and he’s hurt. RB – Rudi Johnson (Don) – He was drafted to start and hasn’t. RB -Selvin Young (Eric) – So much for a 2,000-yard season. WR – Roy Williams (David) – 63rd among receivers. WR – Braylon Edwards (Rob M) – He was top five last year. TE – Vernon Davis (Rob M) – Can we call him a bust now? PK – Phil Dawson (Rich B) – Never scored 100 points once. DST – Chargers DST (Molly) – Should they be benched?
FIRST HALF CHAMPIONS, BUT…
POWER RANKINGS MEANS BRAGGING RIGHTS – BOB CASTRONE, GREASY ONION BOOTY (4-3) SO FAR – It’s been all about the rookies, leading our Hollywood stud to the first-half scoring title. I will hand it to Bob, he always managed to have solid picks in the second category (6-10). This year he landed two future stars in Chris Johnson and DeSean Jackson. Too bad he can only keep one. However, a couple solid rookies aren’t going to deliver a championship, unless they do, then so be it. Instead he can point to his three-headed monster at running back of Jacobs/Parker/Johnson, These boys have gotten lost this season behind Burrier’s boys. Now prior to the season, Bob walked away from the draft with two big-name, potential ‘All-Robio’ players in Manning (keeper) and Gates (third round), but only Gates has lived up to the billing. Manning has struggled in ’08. He is currently 12th among quarterbacks, only cracking 250 once this season.
I WAS WRONG – I predicted Bob’s backs would be ineffective because they would share too many carries. I thought after an injury-plaque 2007, the Steelers would take it easy on Fast Willie. You had to assume this based on the simple fact they’d drafted a stud back in the first round. I was wrong. Now Brandon Jacobs has shared carries with two other backs, but it hasn’t hurt his stats at all.
GOD I LOVE STATS – Bob has never led the league in scoring, which he currently does and prior to this season he had only three weekly high scores. This season alone he has two.
X-FACTOR – Willie Parker: While I’m not excited about Bob’s receivers, he has the backs to overcome any short comings. However, I’m not sure Jacobs is the answer. The G-Men’s schedule is about to get real tough for the remainder of the season. Look for Jacobs’ numbers to dip. If Fast Willie comes back healthy, there’s no one to steal any carries.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – There’s some solid Coomers sitting right behind Bob, not to mention Dave’s five wins in front of him, but Bob leads the league in scoring, despite missing his top pick since week two. While I still have major reservations with his receiving core and Manning really doesn’t look right, I expect Bob to hold off Molly for the division title, but he won’t get the scoring title.
CALDERON SAYS –The Booty is our top scoring team thus far but Bob’s boys have looked average and gone 2-3 since their strong opening to the season. The truth is Bob has a few too many players that you worry about on your roster. Will Peyton Manning turn things around? Jacobs is solid but will he continue to lose 5 to 10 carries a game to Ward and Bradshaw? Can Gates be spectacular again? Will Parker rebound from injury to deliver on the promise of his breakout game in the first week? My guess is no, no, maybe, no. Don’t get me wrong there is enough here for Bob to traipse into the playoffs ,and Bob is certainly savvy enough to make a game-changing waiver pick or two, but a team that looked potentially dominant early on will be playing match-ups in the RB and WR slots and praying that Dungy can straighten out the Colts offense. Scoring rank: #1. Record: 4-3. Projected Final Record: 7-6. Projected Playoff Seed: #4. I see Bob finishing 2nd in his division behind Molly and entering the playoffs as the 4th seed. My projection has him going out in the first round vs. 5th seed Griff.
IF YOU ASKED HIM, HE WON THE TITLE ALREADY – RICHARD BURRIER, JOHN MAYER (5-2) SO FAR – There’s no doubt he has the best running back duo in the land. In fact, he’s got the best running back threesome. Too bad he can’t start all three. However, Burrier’s success has come from solid play at the quarterback spot with both Eli and Philip and consistent play from his receiving core of Burress, Chambers and Driver. It makes you wonder how Rich is only 10th in the league in scoring. The problem is, he’s dead last in ‘coach’s ranking’. What’s that mean? The coach’s ranking is based on how many points you leave on your bench, compare to your starters, and nobody in Robioland has had more big games wasted on his bench than Richard.
I WAS WRONG – I said his running game was only the fifth best (based on two starters), but instead they have been number one. While they are no longer on pace to break any records, they’re still the best.
GOD I LOVE STATS – After last year’s hiccup, Burrier is back to his winning ways. If he can win his division, it would be his fifth career division title. Only Robio has more (in nine years).
X-FACTOR – Plaxico Burress: In the first two weeks, Burress looked like a star with back-to-back 200+ games. Since then, he’s broken 110 only once. As good as your backs are, you still need a #1 receiver in your lineup, not a trio of #2 receivers.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – Will he win the scoring title? No. Will he even be the highest scoring team in his own division? Nope. However, five wins is five wins and he only needs two more to guarantee a playoff spot. Look for Burrier to do a better job with the match ups and do just enough to wrap up a division title and top seed in the playoffs. Beyond that…well, this is Burrier and Burrier is allergic of the second round.
CALDERON SAYS – John Mayer is a study in contradictions. He has three of the top seven RBs yet he is 11th in scoring. He is 11th in scoring yet he is tied for the best record in the league. He has some of the most consistent performers in the game yet he has had wild point swings from week to week. I don’t have the answer to why this team has been so enigmatic. All I can say is that I thought it was a brilliant move to draft Turner in the 2nd rather than being satisfied with only Barber and Gore. I think that draft pick has paid off. I also think he has a solid and relatively deep roster going forward that should net him 7 or 8 wins and a playoff spot. I don’t think Rich necessarily has the horses to predict a championship run but you have to be in it to win it – and Rich will be in it. In a lot of ways this team is the anti-Backstreet Boyz (2008 version). Burrier has 3 RBs of the type that Masterson has none of. The Boyz were sexier in August; John Mayer will have more fun in December (at least for this season).
Scoring rank: #11. Record: 5-2. Projected Final Record: 8-5. Projected Playoff Seed: #2. 5-2 is a nice advantage to have heading into the short second half. It would take a total collapse for Rich to miss the playoffs. I expect John Mayer to hold serve and win the Manhattan Division and enter the playoffs as the #2 seed. There he will win in the first round but lose in the semis to the revitalized Griffters.
CONSISTENT AT BEING CONSISTENT – MOLLY COOMER, MOLLIPOP (4-3) SO FAR – Despite injuries to a star receiver and tight end, despite a defense completely under performing, despite her #2 running back being a absolute bust (Maroney), she has a pretty solid, consistent beginning to the season. First, she landed one (Forte) of the three best rookie running backs (Johnson, Slaton and Forte). While the other two are more flashier and can produce some amazing games, it is Forte who gets all the carries, splitting time with no one. However, Molly’s success has come from the second best quarterback (Cutler) and the league’s top running back (Portis). Cutler was on a Tom Brady-type pace until a recent slump and Portis is currently on pace for about 1,800 yards.
I WAS WRONG – I wasn’t wrong about much. The running game is averaging about 370ppg (20 points more than I projected), but that’s about it. Cutler is living up to expectations and although the receiving core has not produced the stats I predicted, it mostly has to do with Colston’s injury.
GOD I LOVE STATS – Molly’s been one of the most successful teams in this league. Her .625 winning percentage is the league’s highest, but just like the Dallas Cowboys, it doesn’t matter what she does in the regular season anymore. She hasn’t won a playoff game since 2002, the longest streak for a team that has won at least one playoff game.
X-FACTOR – Matt Forte: He’s a top five back right now according to the numbers, but sometimes those numbers can be deceiving. Forte, after producing 123 yards, 92 yards and 89 yards rushing in the first three games, has rushed for only 43, 36, 76 and 56 in his last four. With Maroney gone for the year, Forte is a starter for good. He’s survived on touchdowns (one in each of his last three), but those yards need to come back up.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – I’ve been high on Molly’s team all year long. She was the top scorer for a while, is currently number two, despite the fact she’s never led the league in scoring in any week. She’s only 4-3, but she probably should be 4-2. She lost two games where she was the second best scoring team, but she also won one game last week where she was the third lowest score. With Colston back, Molly will have an amazing trio of Cutler, Portis and Colston. Forte and Holmes will be good enough #2 guys. Molly will go to the post-season with the league’s highest score, but will come up just short for the division title.
CALDERON SAYS – A lot has gone right for Molly in the first half. Cutler has emerged as a top-5 QB, Forte has become a reliable every-week fantasy stud and she is near the top of league scoring. In retrospect Molly had an awesome draft that included Portis in the 1st, Forte in the 6th, and Cutler in the 8th. Entering the second half I expect the consistent play to continue and there is even reason to expect an improvement. The receiving trio of Cotchery, Holmes and Colsten has so far disappointed but should provide better numbers in the next half. A playoff appearance seems certain, a deep playoff run likely. But there remains an Achilles heel – and that is depth. Mollipop is marching to the promised land, can probably withstand one key injury, but one key injury and a fall off by Portis or Forte can possibly sink her championship run.
Scoring rank: #2. Record: 4-3. Projected Final Record: 8-5. Projected Playoff Seed: #1. Molly will emerge as the number one seed in the league by virtue of being the top scoring division winner. I have her gliding past 8th seed Yankee Killaz in rd 1 and then my team in rd 2 to set the stage for a momentous finale versus the other Coomer, her husband, Griff.
IT AIN’T EASY TO BE THE PRE-SEASON FAVORITE – COLBY HALL, QUARTER POUNDERS (4-3) SO FAR – He’s had a good season, despite having plenty go wrong. First, LT’s toe is killing his stats. He’s not even close to being one of the best running backs in the league. We thought that Colby would clearly have the best running back duo, but right now Lynch is 15th and LT is 19th. No excuses when you consider neither has missed a start. When you figure how bad TJ Housh has played and he cut his starting quarterback you wonder how the Pounders have won four games. But they have and it hasn’t been luck. They’re third in the league in scoring. Colby has done a fine job switching his lineup between multiple quarterbacks (O’Sullivan & Campbell) and receivers (Muhammad & Berrian), getting solid numbers from Cooley and the Steelers Defense.
I WAS WRONG – I was wrong about a lot; Tomlinson, Derek Anderson and TJ Houshmandzadeh. However, if I knew these guys were going to struggle this much, I wouldn’t have picked Colby to win his division…and I would have been wrong again.
GOD I LOVE STATS – If Colby loses to Eric this week, it would mean that none of the teams in his division will have a winning record. Never in league history has a division had no teams above .500 after eight weeks.
X-FACTOR – The Quarterback, who ever it is. You can’t win without a quarterback. While the running backs may be the ones drafted early and often, you need a solid arm in that lineup. With O’Sullivan struggling for now, Colby rotates in yet another guy, Garrard. One thing we can be sure…Colby won’t rest until he solves it.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – I’ve cooled on the Pounders, despite their solid stats. Don’t be fooled by total points this early. Remember, I’m 4th in the league and I’m certainly not the 4th best team in the league. So far I’ve seen nothing that says Colby’s struggling players will improve in the second half. Look for them to remain inconsistent, forcing him to rely on his Bills duo of Lynch and Lee. Luckily for him, he’s in a weak division. With Matt at one win, Masterson losing a player each week, only Don seems to be able to contend with Colby. He’ll win his division and one playoff win won’t shock me, but I no longer see a title run.
CALDERON SAYS – Well the Pounders started their draft with LT, Lynch, and Housh and were instantly anointed by Robio, Masterson and Colby himself as an early favorite. What nobody could have predicted then is that Lee Evans would be this team’s top scoring RB/WR and they would still be third in league scoring. Colby has done an admirable job making up for the failed Derek Anderson experiment with a match-up triad of Garrard, Campbell, and O’Sullivan but the failure of LT and Housh to pay expected dividends has been a major headache for Colby. This team’s starting line-up remains formidable on paper but let’s face it – a lot is riding for this team on Week 10. That is the week that LT returns from his bye and hopefully – for Pounders fans – healed and refreshed enough to help catapult this team to a dominant playoff drive. I would wager that it is strong possibility he will and that other Pounder underachievers will start to contribute. I think, at the least, that you can count on the Pounders’ high-scoring ways to continue in the second half.
Scoring rank: #3. Record:4-3. Projected Final Record: 7-6. Projected Playoff Seed: #3. In his preseason projection Colby announced that the Manhattan Division was incredibly weak. In fact it is his own Jersey Division that will emerge as the disaster of the league sending only one team to the playoffs. I see the Pounders advancing as the only 7-6 team from this division and losing in the first round to my team. Poetic Justice.
UPSET MINDED
THE SLEEPING GIANT READY TO WAKE UP – RICH CALDRON, ROBOT SEX (4-3) SO FAR – In 1979, Coach Howard Schnellenberger called the Miami Hurricanes a ‘Sleeping Giant’. The rest was history. The Robot Sex is my 2009 Sleeping Giant. We’ve said for a long time that the problem with Calderon’s teams is A) a lack of greatness and B) too many average players needing to be rotated in. For a few weeks, it looked like ‘B’ would be happening again, but not anymore. First, greatness. Drew Brees has been the league MVP in ’09 and it looks like the rest of Rich’s starting lineup will be settled. Slaton is a star and Lewis is slowly becoming a solid #2. With LJ’s legal problems, he’s a no-brainer bench player. Also, patience has paid off at the tight end spot. Olsen looked bad early on, but suddenly the Bears offense looks like the Run-N-Shoot and Olsen is his favorite target.
I WAS WRONG – I wasn’t really wrong, I just forgot about his bench (which is a form of being wrong). While Lewis, Johnson and Harrison have looked their age at points this season, Rich’s backups have filled in nicely.
GOD I LOVE STATS – A few weeks ago, Griff beat Matt for the first time ever (1-3 lifetime). These means Calderon’s undefeated streak against Don is the only one left in the league. Rich is 6-0 against Don and guess who he plays this week?
X-FACTOR – Orlovsky & Thigpen: Huh? Assuming Harrison and Gonzalez will never get their act together, Calvin and Dwayne are his receivers. Solid receivers who normally can put up great stats. However, Bowe has a third-string quarterback now and Johnson has a rookie throwing the ball for the remainder of the season.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – I like this team. Quarterback is the big position right now in fantasy football and Brees is the best arm in the league. With Bush hurt and McAllister probably suspened, look for Drew to toss it around even more. Neither Slaton or Lewis is in the top-ten among backs, but over the last month, they both have been solid and they will find themselves in the top-ten by seasons end. Add in a great tight end and one of the best defenses, I think he’ll overcome any inconsistency among his receivers. Look for Calderon to just miss out on the division title, but he’ll make a great title run in the post-season.
CALDERON SAYS – In the preseason rankings by Robio, Masterson and Colby little respect was shown to my team. All three predicted I would miss the playoffs. Now, this is an extremely competitive league so one should never be surprised by a few bad breaks that cause you to miss the playoff party, but I really thought then that those guys were failing to see the potential in this team. The formula? Drew Brees – who I really felt had a shot to be the #1 QB this season – and a solid supporting cast that would produce without being spectacular. After going 1-3 I thought I had screwed the whole thing up. Now having gone 3-0, to up my record to 4-3, I feel a lot more vindicated. In his last ranking Robio jumped my team to #2 – to jinx me from here on out. Seriously, aside from the notable failure of LJ, most of my plans have seemed to work pretty well so far and I do think my team is poised to win consistently in the second half. If Calvin Johnson continues to put up huge numbers and Slaton and Lewis progress as legit low end #1 / hi end #2 backs then a run through the playoffs remains possible. I’m not going to lie though; on talent alone my team is behind some of the others so a protracted playoff run is going to require some effective match-up juggling on my part.
Scoring rank: #7. Record: 4-3. Projected Final Record: 7-6. Projected Playoff Seed: #6. I seem to have had some luck playing the match-ups the last few weeks and I think I can continue to do that enough to get the 3 wins I need to make the playoffs and then – hopefully – upset the Pounders in the first round, before losing to Mollipop in the semis. A longer playoff run is possible (like last season) but not on talent alone, on paper.
*** Quick Robio note on Calderon’s thoughts…every year he accuses me of “failing to see the potential in (his) team.” ***
I ALMOST FORGET HE WAS IN THE LEAGUE, BUT… – GRIFF COOMER, THE GRIFFTERS (3-4) SO FAR – Is it me or is Griff’s team starting to come together? Schaub is looking like one of the top arms in the league, White & Wayne are both currently sitting in the top seven among receivers and Jason Witten is the top tight end in the league. Despite all this success, Griff has sat in last place in his own division, barely squeaking into the playoff picture. What’s the deal? First, Schaub has just started to get good. The QB spot was a major issue early on, enough so, Griff traded away a decent backup running back to get Favre. However, his biggest struggles have been at the running back spot, with Jackson and Grant having a major issues. However, recently Jackson has come on strong and even Grant has shown some moves.
I WAS WRONG -The running backs have completely under performed and I thought they were easily one of the top three combos in the league.
GOD I LOVE STATS – So far, Griff’s opponents have scored the most points. His opponents scored the most points last season. No team has led the league in opponent’s points two straight years.
X-FACTOR – Is this the real Matt Schaub? He produced 125 points in week one, a single point in week three and was hurt in week five. However, in the three other games he’s produced 503, 381 and 300. If the latter three are for real, quarterback won’t be a problem any more.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – I’ve decided not to put Griff among the contenders, but that could be a mistake. My justification is the simple fact that it’s only been a couple weeks that players like Schaub and Jackson have finally stepped up. With these players, it easy to forget that Griff has dominating receivers and a tight end. The trick for Griff is Grant. Can he step up to his ’08 status? He just had his first 200-point game, so we’ll see. Personally, look for Grant to do just good enough, Jackson will improve as the Rams do and Schaub is the real deal. Even if Grant can’t do it, Coomer could easily go three-wide and insert Hines Ward. Sitting in a division with a five-win team (Dave) and the two top scoring teams (Bob & Molly), you could easily see Griff finish last in his own league, but still be a top-five scorer. Remember, it’s all about getting into the post-season. Griff will get in, pull off some solid upsets as scary 8-seed and get deep into the playoffs.
CALDERON SAYS – After losing his first three, Griff saved his season from the brink by whacking my squad in week 4. Suddenly with SJax (assuming his injury is not too serious), Grant and Schaub reviving their seasons and a solid receiving duo of Wayne and White, Griff is beginning to look like a scary contender. This has the look of a team I would like to have. Young, hungry players with something to prove. While he may be just outside the playoff picture at the moment I think Griff has a good shot to get the four wins he will need to make the playoffs. If I am right he will be dangerous no matter whom he faces.
Scoring rank: #6. Record: 3-4. Projected Final Record: 7-6. Projected Playoff Seed: #5. Look – a lot is riding on Steven Jackson’s thigh. If SJax is good to go for a strong 2nd half I think Griff will be the one 3-4 team to get the 4th victory that will secure a playoff slot. And then he will march past GOB and John Mayer to consummate an all-Coomer finale. If SJax is hurt worse than we think or if the Rams shut him down… then it’s all just a dream.
LUCKY SON-OF-A-BITCH
TEAM MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A REALITY CHECK – DAVID HIGHTOWER, YANKEE KILLAZ (5-2) SO FAR – As the season progressed in the early stages, I could only shake my head as Dave kept pilling up win after win, despite having what I thought was a weak team, especially after Brady went down. It certainly hasn’t been all luck either. Edwards, Jones, Moss and Coles have all had great games. Owen Daniels has been a solid tight end and the Bills defense has been great. However, we can’t forget the simple fact that his opponents are last in the league in scoring. Despite his success and the W’s, signs are pointing south for Dave heading into the final six-week run as Coles, Moss and Jones have all fallen back to earth regarding their numbers.
I WAS WRONG – When Tom Brady went down, I would have predicted Dave would be 2-5 after seven weeks. He’s not, instead winning five games with a patchwork offense.
GOD I LOVE STATS – He’s a stunning 17-5 over his last 22 games. Only one other person has gone 17-5 in a 22-game span. That would be me.
X-FACTOR – Julius Jones: Speaking of being wrong, for two weeks I looked dead wrong about Julius Jones. He was a top-five back, producing 586 points in two weeks, but suddenly Hasselback went down and the Seahawks can’t run anymore. He’s produced only 234 total points the last three weeks, with his stats going down each week. That won’t be good enough.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – Luckily for Dave, he only needs two more wins to nail down a playoff win. While I know Dave has made some good moves to earn five wins, I believe Dave’s luck will run out. While Moss and Coles will put up an occasional solid game, they will not be #1 receivers. While Graham will remain a solid back, Jones has proven over the years he is not an elite back. While Dave could easily win two of his next three, he’s going to have trouble back in divisional play when he faces off against three teams who have outscored him at this point. The playoffs will happen, but that’s about it.
CALDERON SAYS – Allow me say what I think most of us know, this team is playing well over its head. Santana Moss has been a nice surprise and Graham has delivered top-12 numbers in spite of the presence of Dunn, but I still think Yankee Killaz has been extremely lucky. In spite of two powerful games early on (1741 v. Griff, 1502 v. Robio) this team doesn’t have any truly transcendent talents nor enough reliably effective match-up players to inspire confidence. Nevertheless, a 5-2 record puts Dave on pace to make the playoffs – he really needs only two more wins. Those two wins may be hard to come by and even if he does get them an early playoff exit probably awaits Dave in December.
Scoring rank: #8. Record: 5-2. Projected Final Record: 7-6. Projected Playoff Seed: #8. I have Dave hanging on for the 8th seed and making a first round exit against Molly. Not a bad result for the team suffering the most devastating injury in the history of fantasy football.
SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE
ALL THE PIECES, BUT ONE FROM A SOLID RUN – ERIC VOZZOLA, THE SWAMP (4-3) SO FAR – Eric can’t catch a break, can he? First, he lost Steve Smith for two games due to a suspension. He’s been dealing with a injured McGahee, Winslow has been hurt and is now suspended, White has been inconsistent and Young has been a joke. Did I mention he lost Romo for four weeks? I’ve been saying all along, I would love to see what this team could do once all the stars were in the lineup at the same time. That hasn’t happened yet and who knows if it ever will. Despite all of this, Eric has won four of his last six after a slow 0-2 start to the season.
I WAS WRONG – Selvin Young: I thought he was going to be good. Everyone should have saw it coming. I’ve been waiting for a breakout Broncos back for years now and it never happens. I’ll never learn.
GOD I LOVE STATS – This one is about the division. Right now Eric and the rest of his division (Robio and the two Rich’s) is 16-12 (9-3 outside of the division). If this holds up, they would take the record for the best record for one division. The best division so far is Don, Griff, Eric and Molly in 2005, who went 30-22.
X-FACTOR – Tony Romo: Shocking, I know. He’ll miss at least two more games, but it’s a pinkie injury and those can be nagging. Eric might have a hole at the #2 slot at RB all year long. You can overcome that easier with a 400-point quarterback.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – For Eric, the injuries and suspensions could become too much of a problem, but let’s look at the positive. Romo will come back and he should be good. Second, Eric has one of the top-two receiving duos in Fitzgerald and Smith. They’re both #1 WRs. Eric should finally get his lineup in order for the first and only time this season heading into divisional play. He won’t win it, finishing third, but he’ll get into the post-season.
CALDERON SAYS – Any team with Fitz and Steve Smith, along with Romo and McGahee, has enough talent to be taken seriously. Steve Smith has put up top-15 numbers – in spite of missing the first two games. McGahee appears to have learned the offense and looks to have reclaimed his job. So Eric’s whole season now hinges on Romo. When will he get back? How long will it take him to reestablish his level of performance? There is a chance it will be too late. If that happens a potentially very good playoff team (The Swamp) could lose his spot to one of the league’s lesser lights (Yankee Killaz). That would be a shame for Eric because I could see these players performing very well in weeks 14, 15 and 16.
Scoring rank: #9. Record: 4-3. Projected Final Record: 7-6. Projected Playoff Seed: #7. Eric’s team is a wild card. If Romo comes back strong and confident this lower-end seed could be the Cinderella story of the playoffs. Right now I project a first round playoff loss to John Mayer but all bets are off if the Cowboys revert to their high-flying offense in December.
A GIANT HOLE THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN FILLED – DON VOZZOLA, GATOR NATION (3-4) SO FAR – Who needs two backs, right? For the second time in three years, Don has found success with only one productive running back. While McNabb has produced solid numbers, the trio of Jennings, Owens and Bruce have led the way for the Nation. Jones-Drew has struggled from time-to-time, but he seems to be getting his act together recently, while Owens and Bruce have struggled. Still it’s pretty amazing that he’s scored well when you consider that Don only has one player that is top-seven in his position (Jennings).
I WAS WRONG – So far, not much. I knew Rudi was going to be an issue, but not even I thought he would be cut by the Bengals.
GOD I LOVE STATS – Don’s on pace to have his fourth straight winning season. If he can do it, he’ll be the only team to have four winning seasons over the last four years.
X-FACTOR – Terrell Owens: Nope, the X-Factor is not the second running back spot. He’s proven he can survive without it. However, Owens has been bad lately. He’s caught only eight balls in his last three games and five times this season he has caught three balls or less. That’s a bust, baby. He can’t be a bust for Don.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – He’s won thre already, but he’ll probably need four to make the playoffs. If Owens is going to continue to struggle, he doesn’t find a tight end, and Jones-Drew remains inconsistent, as will the Vikings Defense, does anyone really trust McNabb to lead this team to the promise land? Don will only win three more and will miss the playoffs on total points tiebreaker.
CALDERON SAYS – Quietly, Don, our Republican brother, has become one of the most consistently successful teams in the league over the last few years. Today he is fifth in scoring but I can’t help thinking, at this mid-season crossroad, that this team’s season can still either take off or crumble. That’s because Don’s success depends on three of the most mercurial talents in all of fantasy football: TO, MJD, and McNabb. These three when healthy and inspired can bring 900 points to the table almost every week. Production like that from less than half your line-up makes winning easy. It would make-up for the rest of the squad which is shallow and uninspired. Any two of them getting it together might be enough to squeak into the playoffs. I would say one of them has to be TO. Now consider this: shit is falling apart in Dallas, the quarterback is hurt, the coach is under fire, Jerry Jones is playing catch on the sidelines, they just acquired TO’s eventual replacement, and TO is wondering why they aren’t looking his way. I love TO but this may be turning into “one of those seasons”.
Scoring rank: #5. Record: 3-4. Projected Final Record: 6-7. Projected to miss playoffs. I have Don as the other 3-4 team that is in trouble. A good team but not good enough to go 4-2 and secure a playoff spot. If this plays out Don would have the third pick in ’09.
THE INFIRMARY
CAN HE EVEN FILL HIS ROSTER SOON? – ROB MASTERSON, BACKSTREET BOYZ (2-5) SO FAR – Every year it seems that Masterson suffers the league’s most ‘important’ injuries. To prove it, for the second time in four years Rob has lost both of his starting running backs. At least this year, they’ll be back at some point. Seriously, who would have predicted Rob would be starting MeWelde Moore and Josh Morgan in week eight? Add in Zach Miller and you start to wonder how Rob even won two games so far. Worse yet, the RB injuries hasn’t even been the biggest problem. Masterson entered ’09 with three receivers who were top-eight in ’08. Instead, they have all stumbled badly. Even Marshall has fallen, failing to break 200 points the last four weeks.
I WAS WRONG – Everything. I really thought Rob would be a contender, particularly with those receivers. Right now those receivers are 7th, 21st and 35th. Ouch.
GOD I LOVE STATS – At 2-5, Masterson can go 3-3 and still only go 5-8 this season. If that happens, it would be the 4th time in the last five years Rob has suffered eight defeats in one season.
X-FACTOR – Randy Moss: Right now, both Addai and Bush are on the IR until after week nine, which means he’ll be starting either McFadden or any injury fill-in at RB. Moss has had three games of over 200, while producing less than 50 in three others. The Pats need to let Matt throw it deep and let Randy go up and get it.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – Too much to over come and too much to ask Moss, Edwards and Marshall to fill in right now. By the time Rob has all his players back, it could be way too late, just like last year. The one benefit Masterson has is his schedule. He’ll face Dave, Matt and myself…all winnable games. However, in the end, it will be too much to overcome. Rob will miss the post-season for the third time in four years.
CALDERON SAYS – A funny thing happened on the way to Masterson’s first Robioland championship… Tenth in league scoring, 1,000 points behind the pace, and two games out of a playoff spot this early season favorite has got to be the most disappointing story so far in 2008. Coming out of the draft, who among us didn’t want Masterson’s stable of talent… Addai, Bush, Moss, Edwards, Marshall, and McFadden. As usual Rob had a stellar draft but once again his team is failing to meet expectations. Why? I think it’s two things, one which is obvious (BAD LUCK) the other which I might get crucified for saying (OVERRELIANCE ON HIGH UPSIDE TALENT).
Don’t get me wrong, all of these guys were good picks but taken altogether they may have made the Boyz vulnerable – the team simply lacks a consistent every-week pounder in the backfield. The biggest problem so far for Masterson has been the Colts offense and the fact that Joseph Addai appears to be soft. Now he has a hurt hammy and I fear Addai may disappear the rest of the season. Problem two is Tom Brady’s injury which has turned #1 pick Randy Moss into a low end #2 WR. Problem three is that the Saints have decided that Reggie Bush’s greatest value to them is as a punt returner – which you don’t get points for and may be the most dangerous occupation in the NFL. Problem #4 is that McFadden is not ready to be an every week fantasy stud – which is a risk Rob knew he was taking when he drafted him in the third round. Now, with both Addai and Bush shelved and sporting a 2-5 record, Masterson has a steep climb just to qualify for the playoffs. In Rob’s favor is the obvious fact that he is one of the league’s savviest and most engaged managers, having scooped up Moore and Pittman. I think it’s unlikely that Rob will make the playoffs but if he does his team will be getting healthy just in time to make a difference. One of these seasons, Rob’s ability to draft deep, talented rosters will reward him with a juggernaut.
Scoring rank: #10. Record: 2-5. Projected Final Record: 5-8. Projected to miss playoffs. Masterson has too steep a hill to climb to project a playoff appearance. Another season with so much hope down the toilet; but a chance with the 2nd pick in next year’s draft to rebuild a powerhouse around Bush or McFadden.
AND WITH THE FIRST PICK IN ’09…
THE ALL-BUST TEAM – ROBIO MURRAY, ADAM JONES (3-4) SO FAR – For the second straight year I walked into the season with the highest payroll, which means, according to CBS, the best roster, but week after week, I’ve watch bust after bust. Holt has fallen, Gonzalez can’t get it going with no quarterback, I was completely wrong about Kevin Smith and Westbrook has not been healthy. Now I know what you’re thinking…my team is 4th in the league in scoring. Don’t be fooled, that number can be deceiving. I’ve produced two weekly high scores, while my five other games, I’ve failed to crack 1,200.
I WAS WRONG – I thought Kevin Jones would be rookie of the year…right now, Slaton, Johnson, McFadden, Stewart and Forte have all been better rookie running backs.
GOD I LOVE STATS – Currently I lead my division in scoring, despite sitting alone in last. Only one team (Jeff/Colby) in ’04 has finished last in a division, despite scoring the most points of all the division teams. In fact, they led the league in scoring that year.
X-FACTOR – Thomas Jones: If (and that’s a big ‘if’) Westbrook can come back and be a star again, then all I need is for Jones to be a solid #2. After a rough month, he’s produced over 250 points the past two weeks.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – Am I declaring my season over? No. If Westbrook can stay healthy and Warner can stay on his feet, then I have a solid core of players with a rejuvenated Andre Johnson. However, if I’m going to make the playoffs, I’ll need both Holt and Gonzalez to find their groove this season. They won’t and I just don’t trust Warner and Westbrook with two broken ribs. I’ll miss the playoffs for two straight years.
CALDERON SAYS – With all his damn complaining and ranking his squad at the bottom of the weekly power rankings you would think Robio’s team is a fantasy football abomination when in fact he is fourth in league scoring. I guess after years of touting his team’s potential he has decided to undersell them in the hopes of catching us all by surprise. Not this time Robio! Not here! If Brian Westbrook overcomes his injury woes Robio may have a bona fide powerhouse on his hands. Warner, Westbrook, A Johnson and Gonzalez are all top-3 to 5 at their positions. Holt is due for a rebound. It’s the second RB spot that could make or break Robio’s season. Can Thomas Jones deliver 150-200 points consistently the rest of the way? I’m not sure. Robio needs four wins to secure a playoff spot. I rate those chances at 50-50 but if he gets them Robio can have a deep playoff run.
Scoring rank: #4. Record: 3-4. Projected Final Record: 6-7. Projected to miss playoffs. I do believe that once again Robio, our beloved commissioner, will fail to make the playoffs as the ninth overall team – the best team not to make the playoffs. That is an honor I have had twice and it kind of sucks. Perhaps there should be an award or trophy for this accomplishment – or even some prize money. As I said earlier Rob needs 4 wins for the rest of the regular season and although I think his team is much better than 9th in this league I think he may fall just short of that mark.
ALL WENT WRONG RIGHT AT THE DRAFT – MATT NEATOCK, G.I.L.F. (1-6) SO FAR – Two weeks ago, Matt declared that he would have the best running back duo from that point forward. In all honesty, I actually agreed with him. So far, not so much. While his backs have had a couple good games and Aaron Rogers might be the pick of the draft, Matt has one single win, scoring the least amount of points so far. You can lay all the blame on his receiving core, including tight end. His TE is only the 11th best, which makes him the best receiver on Matt’s team. In fact, to say his WRs are bad, would be putting it nicely. His two best pair of hands are currently 32nd and 47th in the league. That’s not bad, that’s a league worse…in league history.
I WAS WRONG – Adrian Peterson was a pre-season ‘All-Robio’ player. He’s only 11th in the league, sitting four spot behind his backfield mate, Ronnie Brown.
GOD I LOVE STATS – There have been nine league champions. One team repeated, one team didn’t return, four won the division the following year, six made it to the playoffs, but only one made it out of round one (that one made it to the semis). Only one, Bob in 2005 failed to make the playoffs. He in fact finished last, earning the top pick in 2006.
X-FACTOR – Peterson & Brown: How can Matt overcome his receivers? He can’t, but he can try by having the best running back duo in the league, and not just the best duo, but a dominating running back duo.
SECOND HALF RESULTS – Sorry Matt, no hope. While I always have faith in Matt at least trying to make one, two even six moves to salvage a season, good keepers will curse Matt this season. Because both Peterson and Rogers are both solid keepers for ’09, can Matt really give either one up to save this season? If not, he can go ahead and start planning for the top pick in the 2009 draft.
CALDERON SAYS – Wow. Our defending champion has suffered an epic, cruel, almost Shakespearean fall from his lofty pedestal. Going into week 8, with a 1-6 record and his two most reliable scorers on byes, I think we can safely say Matt’s season is over. What is surprising about Matt’s demise is that he has two top-10 RBs and a top-3 QB. So how did it go so horribly wrong? I think we can blame this one on Chad Johnson and to a lesser extent every wide receiver that played in a game for Matt this season. Chad Johnson, Wes Welker, Joey Galloway, Chansi Stuckey, Antonio Bryant, and Steve Smith (the lesser). Congratulations men you have certainly done your part in closing the book on one of the most obnoxious reigns in Robioland history. If only Matt could have drafted Tory Holt in the 12th round. Oh wait… that wouldn’t have helped either. It did seem during the first half that Matt had the misfortune of playing the wrong match-up a few too many times, or that Adrian Peterson would crap out at just the wrong time costing Matt more than his share of squeakers. To that I say, of course!!! Fate was aligned against him for his championship hubris from a year ago. In closing, Matt, you win some and you lose some…
Scoring rank: #12. Record: 1-6. Projected Final Record: 3-10. Projected to miss playoffs. Matt will have the top pick in the ’09 draft to pair with second round keeper Adrian Peterson to try and re-ignite his championship hopes.
PRE-SEASON RANKINGS: WHAT WENT WRONG?
PRE-SEASON RANKINGS AND PREDICTED AVERAGE SCORE / SEVEN GAME AVERAGE & MY THOUGHTS *** Quick note: Averages at mid-season typically are lower because of byes. Team averages always increase as the long moves along. ***
#1 Quarter Pounders – 1,404ppg Avg 1,265ppg – Colby’s not running away with this thing? Lay blame on LT, Housh and Anderson.
#2 The Swamp – 1,366ppg Avg 1,192ppg – No running game, injuries and Smith’s suspension has hurt Eric.
#3 Adam Jones – 1,345ppg Avg 1,256ppg – Holt, Gonzalez and Cowboys DST have all under performed
#4 The Griffters – 1,329ppg Avg 1,228ppg – Not bad considering how bad his running game has been in the early part of the season.
#5 Backstreet Boyz – 1,298ppg Avg 1,166ppg – For the second straight year, Rob has to be the most disappointing team again.
#6 Yankee Killaz – 1,284ppg Avg 1,195ppg – I’m afraid he’s already peaked, but earning five wins is one way to take advantage of it.
#7 Mollipop – 1,271ppg Avg 1,292ppg – Not bad considering her second round pick has been a bust so far.
#8 Gator Nation – 1,245ppg Avg 1,238ppg – The one team I was closes to predicting correctly.
#9 G.I.LF. – 1,235ppg Avg 1,095ppg – So far his average is the lowest ever for a defending champ. Bob had the lowest in ’05 (1,125ppg)
#10 Robot Sex – 1,206ppg Avg 1,216ppg – His average has gone up 103ppg since his 1-3 start to the season.
#11 Greasy Onion Booty – 1,198ppg Avg 1,311ppg – If this holds up, Bob would be the lowest scoring leader ever (Molly in ’06 averaged 1,356ppg)
#12 John Mayer – 1,160ppg Avg 1,130ppg – He’s actually averaged 30-points less than I thought he would.
ROBIO’S PREDICTIONS: 2nd HALF RESULTS
MANHATTAN DIVISION JOHN MAYER 8-5…Rich will hold off Rich, winning a fifth divisional title, earning the top seed over Bob. (1st Seed) ROBOT SEX 7-6…He’ll just miss out on the division, but he’ll be the top scorer in the 2nd half. (5th seed) THE SWAMP 6-7…He’s not consistent enough to make a real run, but the playoffs look good. (7th Seed) ADAM JONES 5-8…The rebound year does not happen. I miss the post-season for the third time in five years.
BROOKLYN DIVISION GREASY ONION BOOTY 8-5…It will be a fight, but a 2-0 record will give him the division over Molly, giving him the second seed. (2nd Seed) MOLLIPOP 8-5…She won’t dominate, but she will win four of her last six, heading into the post-season strong. (4th Seed) YANKEE KILLAZ 7-6…One day I’ll learn to stop expecting Dave to collapse. Just not this year. Seven wins will be enough though. (6th Seed) THE GRIFFTERS 6-7…A tough division will keep Griff below .500, but he’ll find hi way into the post-season. (8th Seed)
JERSEY DIVISION QUARTER POUNDERS 8-5…He won’t dominate, but he doesn’t have to. The division is weak and eight wins will be enough. (3rd Seed) GATOR NATION 6-7…I’m probably wrong about this, three teams from one division has never missed the playoffs in a single year. BACKSTREET BOYZ 5-8…Too many injuries and inconsistency from the WR spot to produce a playoff team. G.I.L.F. 4-9…A year after winning it all, Matt earns the first pick in the 2009 draft.
CALDERON’S 2nd HALF PREDICTIONS
TOP FOUR SEEDS #1 Mollipop (8-5) #2 John Mayer (8-5) #3 Quarter Pounders (7-6) #4 Greasy Onion Booty (7-6)
BOTTOM FOUR SEEDS #6 Robot Sex (7-6) #5 The Griffters (7-6) #7 The Swamp (7-6) #8 Yankee Killaz (7-6)
MISS PLAYOFFS Gator Nation Adam Jones Backstreet Boyz G.I.L.F.
PLAYOFFS
*** My predictions are on top, Calderon’s are on the bottom ***
QUARTER FINALS #8 The Griffters over #1 John Mayer #2 Greasy Onion Booty over #7 The Swamp #3 Quarter Pounders over #6 Yankee Killaz #5 Robot Sex over #4 Mollopop
SEMI-FINALS FINALS #8 The Griffters over #2 Greasy Onion Booty #5 Robot Sex over #3 Quarter Pounders
ROBIO’S THOUGHTS: The #1 is cursed and so is Burrier, Griff wins — Eric will leave season #9 without a playoff win thanks to Bob — Dave will be no match against Colby — Calderon will escape with a solid win over a high scoring Molly. ROBIO’S THOUGHTS: Griff gets revenge on Bob, who defeated him in the 2004 championship — Calderon assures that no high seed makes it to the title game in ’08. ROBIO’S THOUGHTS: The title doesn’t come down to the best teams throughout the season, but instead, it comes down to who put it all together at the end. This year it will be the one, the only, Calderon.
CALDERON’S QUARTERS #1 Mollipop over #8 Yankee Killaz #2 John Mayer over #7 The Swamp #6 Robot Sex over #3 Quarter Pounders #5 The Griffters over #4 Greasy Onion Booty
2009 DRAFT – FIRST ROUND
1. Matt Neatock – Frank Gore, RB – SF With Peterson falling to the back of the 2nd round, Matt has to keep him again, so go ahead and grab a sidekick.
2. Robio Murray – Marion Barber, RB – DAL Why not go with a homer pick? Assuming he remains the starter over Felix Jones of course.
3. Rob Masterson – Brian Westbrook, RB – PHI Obviously if his health remains an issue, he could fall further down the line.
4. Don Vozzola – Ronnie Brown, RB – MIA A year removed from the ACL injury means he’s ready to be a star.
5. Eric Vozzola – Maurice Jones-Drew, RB – JAX Does Fred Taylor finally hang ’em up? If so, Jones-Drew’s numbers only go up.
6. David Hightower – L. Tomlinson, RB – SD Granted his toe injury has hurt his numbers, but right now he’s no longer the best back in the land.
7. Molly Coomer – Clinton Portis, RB – WAS (K) Get this, Molly could keep both Portis and Matt Forte. Not bad.
8. John Mayer – Reggie Bush, RB – NO He’ll probably keep Michael Turner in the second and he loses Barber, so he’ll complete his backfield early.
9. Colby Hall – Joseph Addai, RB – IND His health issues will make a lot of people forget how good he was prior to 2008.
10. Bob Castrone – Willie Parker, RB – PIT (K) He will get healthy and he should prove again to be a solid first round keeper.
11. Griff Coomer – Steven Jackson, RB – STL (K) Obviously a good keeper, no matter where Griff picks in this round.
12. Rich Calderon – Brandon Jacobs, RB – NYG Why not find a partner in crime for Steve Slaton?
Comentarios